Dynasty Market Report: Week 10

Managing a Dynasty roster is about building long-lasting success in the chaotic and unpredictable landscape of fantasy football. The idea should be to give yourself as many assets/bargaining chips as possible so that when you move all in, the deck is stacked in your favor. “We are card counters at the blackjack table, and we’re going to turn the odds at the casino.” Today, we look at some intriguing assets in Dynasty, drawing unbiased values from Sleeper ADP, Dynasty League Football, and KeepTradeCut in an attempt to exploit certain market discrepancies. As always, we will be viewing these players and values through a Superflex lens.

WEEK 10 DYNASTY MARKET REPORT

Notable Market Risers

C.J. Stroud (QB) - Houston Texans

• If you were under the impression that C.J. Stroud could not possibly increase his value beyond the QB8 ranking he sported through the first eight weeks, think again. Stroud continues to rewrite the history books, this time setting an NFL rookie record with 470 passing yards and five touchdowns with no interceptions while completing 30/42 attempts in Week 9. Stroud became the only quarterback in Texans franchise history to throw for more than 400 yards and four touchdowns with no turnovers. The Texans' rookie quarterback has vaulted himself to the QB5 overall, sandwiched between two star quarterbacks of equal value in a three-way tie with Justin Herbert (QB6) and Joe Burrow (QB4). 

Jordan Addison (WR) - Minnesota Vikings

• Jordan Addison continues to cement himself as a cornerstone dynasty asset and one of the top-rated rookie wide receivers of the 2023 NFL Draft class. The loss of Justin Jefferson has undeniably opened up an avenue for Addison to fast-track his rookie development, averaging 15.2 PPG (WR17) as the WR10 overall. A quarterback change has done little to slow Addison’s rise on the Dynasty market as he has already surpassed several predictive thresholds for increased production in his first season.

Nathaniel “Tank” Dell (WR) - Houston Texans

• C.J. Stroud personally asked the Texans organization to draft Tank Dell in the 2023 NFL Draft – a request that was quickly obliged by the front office, keeping the undersized Houston University product in his home state. The connection between the two rookies is vastly apparent, yielding several historic finishes in the first nine weeks, including their most recent outing where the pair combined for the most yards of any rookie quarterback and wide receiver duo in NFL history. Dell is rapidly rising up the Dynasty ladder, with no signs of slowing anytime soon. Entering Week 10 the rookie wideout finds himself valued as the WR20 and 52nd player overall on consensus calculators. 

Sam Howell (QB) - Washington Commanders

• Sam Howell is still lightyears away from being an undeniable franchise quarterback for the Commanders. With that said, the second-year starter has produced fantasy numbers well above his 2023 projections, despite his high propensity for absorbing sacks and creating turnover-worthy plays. Howell is currently averaging 18.9 PPG (QB9), throwing for 2471 yards (QB2) and 14 touchdowns (QB7) through the first nine weeks. He surprisingly leads the NFL in total pass attempts (353) and completions into tight windows over 15+ air yards (20 “Money Throws”). Howell also ranks first in interceptable passes (17) amongst qualified quarterbacks. Howell’s production is a welcomed sight, albeit unsuspecting. The young gunslinger has plenty of room for improvement and could be a league-winning asset if he can clean up his decision-making. The dynasty market has propelled Howell to QB16 and the 65th player overall on the market.

Josh Downs (WR) - Indianapolis Colts

• Josh Downs represents another of many rookie wideouts that continue to exceed expectations. Downs has established himself as the favorite target of now-starter Gardner Minshew while Michael Pittman grows increasingly frustrated with his new role. A Week 9 injury forced Downs to exit the Colts contest early but it appears as if the market has made up their mind on the young receiver. The rookie wideout is on the rise as managers start to view him with the trajectory of an “undersized” alpha (ala Marquise Brown).

Rachaad White (RB) - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Rachaad White is finally emerging as a league-winning producer. The second-year running back had a career-best rushing performance, taking 20 carries (74.1% Rush Share) for 72 yards and two rushing touchdowns while continuing to flash his elite pass-catching prowess with four receptions for 46 yards on four targets (13.3% Target Share). The Dynasty market is back in on the dual-threat running back, uplifting his value to RB16 heading into Week 10.

Notable Market Fallers

Tony Pollard (RB) - Dallas Cowboys

• Managers are growing increasingly impatient with Tony Pollard as a Dynasty asset – rightfully so. Pollard has produced just one RB1 finish since Week 2, wherein he finished barely above the tier line with 17.0 points and an RB11 outing in Week 6. The shifty veteran is averaging just 13.4 PPG (RB18) and will be 27 years old before the end of the season. The Dynasty market is afraid of “holding the bag” on Pollard wherein his return value on the trade block bottoms out to zero and his production exists in a replacement-level tier of mediocrity. 

James Cook (RB) - Buffalo Bills

• James Cook has been quite impressive from a per-touch basis this season, averaging 4.7 Yard Per Carry (RB9) and 5.5 Yards Per Touch (RB11). Unfortunately, those touches have been succinctly limited to between the 20s as the Bills' laughable lack of confidence in Cooks has grown vastly apparent. The signing of free agent running back Leonard Fournette only helps drive home the suspicions that the Bills front office and coaching staff view Cook as nothing more than a replaceable change-of-pace running back, much like they did Devin Singletary. 

Jordan Love (QB) - Green Bay Packers

• Jordan Love’s freefall down the Dynasty rankings continues with a 45-spot drop into Week 10. Love has been wildly inaccurate and inefficient over his last six starts, capping the value of every member of the Packers' offense as he drags them to the depths of irrelevance.

Kirk Cousins (QB) - Minnesota Vikings

• An unfortunate and notable collapse in value occurred this week for Kirk Cousins as the star Vikings quarterback suffered a career-altering Achilles tear in Week 9. Managers are fearing an end of days for Cousins as an early retirement would shock no one.

Daniel Jones (QB) - New York Giants

• Daniel Jones had been sliding down the value board for much of the 2023 season, largely in part due to his erratic decision-making and menial production. A devastating season-ending ACL tear leaves managers with no wiggle room when evaluating the Giants franchise quarterback. Jones has fallen outside of the top 150 overall assets as the QB28 and 162nd player overall on the Dynasty market.

Dynasty Waiver Adds

Keaton Mitchell (RB) - Baltimore Ravens

• Keaton Mitchell needed just nine rush attempts to amass 138 yards. In fact, he posted 100 yards on two separate carries (60-yard Rush Attempt/40-yard Rushing Touchdown). Mitchell should be the number one Dynasty waiver add across all leagues this week and is well worth the majority of your FAAB at this point in the season.

Noah Brown (WR) - Houston Texans

• Noah Brown led the Texans in receiving yards during C.J. Stroud’s history 470-yard performance. Brown has quietly been increasing his role and utility ahead of Nico Collins but remains far overlooked in Dynasty leagues with a rostership percentage <55.0%.

Tommy DeVito (QB) - New York Giants

• With Daniel Jones (Knee) and Tyrod Taylor (Ribs) both on injured reserve, the Giants have no other contingency in place other than to roll out Tommy DeVito as their starting quarterback. DeVito should be rostered in 100.0% of Superflex leagues, simply for his starting status.

Ty Chandler (RB) - Minnesota Vikings

• An unfortunate injury to Cam Akers may have derailed the running back's career as the fourth-year player suffered his second Achilles tear in Week 10. Ty Chandler, and by extension, Dwayne McBride, need to be added as the only viable running backs to supplement the workhorse role of Alexander Mattison.

Buy Low

Jerome Ford (RB) - Cleveland Browns

• The Browns' offense has sputtered for much of the 2023 season, relying heavily on their top-ranked defensive unit and DPOY candidate Myles Garrett to keep them in the hunt for a Wild Card playoff spot. With that said, Jerome Ford’s continued increase in usage and responsibility is downright encouraging for the second half of the season as Deshaun Watson is finally healthy enough to play competent and mistake-free football (at least for one week). Ford continues to provide a spark as a big-play threat with weekly scoring upside from anywhere on the field. Watson merely needs to regress to the average for Ford to begin yielding league-winning production as the top running back within the offense.

Sell High

Aaron Jones (RB) - Green Bay Packers

• Aaron Jones’ big-play ability has seemingly dissipated in the twilight of his career, with the longest play of his 2023 season topping out at 11 yards. The longtime Packers running back is averaging just 39.2 rushing yards and 29.4 receiving yards per game but has supplemented his low efficiency with three touchdowns in five outings. The Packers offense is trending in the wrong direction, losing four of their last five games, averaging 18.7 points per game during that stretch. If the offense continues to struggle, Jones’ touchdown opportunities will be few and far between. Approaching the dreaded age cliff of 28 years old, Jones' value on the Dynasty market will never be higher than it is right now as managers are willing to pay premium prices for veteran production in an attempt to win the league title.

Nico Collins (WR) - Houston Texans

• A simple glance at the Texans receiving slashes from Week 9 tells us that one of these players is currently unlike the others. Nico Collins had a significantly mediocre performance in comparison to his teammates, especially when considering the sheer volume of passing production Stroud commanded in the second half of Week 9. Managers will inevitably be flocking to the trade/waiver wire to acquire pieces of this rapidly rising Texans offense. Collins is the one player in the mix that holds inherently more risk when considering his inflated cost and hype after his quarterback’s record-breaking game. He has fewer than five receptions in four consecutive games and has not received more than six targets since Week 4 against the Steelers. The big-bodied wideout is also averaging a middling 18.9% target share (53 Targets) with a True Target Value of 3.49 (WR47) despite C.J. Stroud boasting a True Throw Value of 0.503 (QB7). If managers come calling for Collins, do not hesitate to sell the regressing receiver for a top-dollar offer.

Weekly Market Evaluation

The most notable market movement of the week comes in the form of a rookie quarterback cementing himself as a cornerstone asset and top-10 overall player. C.J. Stroud’s historic Week 9 outing has insulated the rookie quarterback’s value to an unshakeable height as he shares a tier with Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow. Conversely, a league-wide slew of quarterback injuries has shaken up the Superflex Dynasty market like a tidal wave rushing through an unsuspecting village. Multiple top-tier veteran signal callers have lost all value amidst injuries while lesser producers get propped up simply based on availability alone. High-producing quarterbacks are next to impossible to acquire in Superflex formats but the recent injury reports can allow for rebuilding managers to acquire future producers at the position for a fraction of their cost when healthy. 

Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.

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By Matt Ward