With Week 12 of the NFL season in the books, Lead Writer Matt Ward has his eyes on three players increasing their stock and three players on the end-of-season decline heading into Week 13! Take advantage of your league mates by acquiring star players at their lowest value and dealing away volatile players at their highest values!
STOCK UP
Kyren Williams (RB) - Los Angeles Rams
Kyren Williams took the adage of “Pick up where you left off” to a new gear in Week 12 as the Rams running back bludgeoned a susceptible Cardinals defense to the tune of 204 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns on 22 touches. Williams plowed through the Cardinals' front seven at ease, rushing for 142 yards on 16 attempts (8.9 YPC) including a long 56-yard scamper. Williams also ranked second on the Rams in targets during Week 12 – making the most of his opportunities by hauling in all six of his targets for 61 yards and two touchdowns. Williams has now scored nine total touchdowns this season (6 Rushing/3 Receiving) despite missing the last four games while on injured reserve. He needed no grace period to get acclimated to mid-season form as the reigning RB2 in PPG (21.2) cemented his league-altering value with 38.4 PPR Points and an RB1 overall finish. Williams has now posted five top 10 positional finishes in seven games, including four finishes within the top 3 running backs that week (Week 2 vs 49ers: RB2, Week 4 @ Colts: RB3, Week 6 vs Cardinals: RB3, Week 12 @ Cardinals: RB1). The second-year running back is quickly establishing himself as a late-round league-winner with incredible upside and unmatched consistency to single-handedly win you your week.
Rashee Rice (WR) - Kansas City Chiefs
It has been a long road to relevance for the Chiefs' rookie wide receiver as Rashee Rice has teetered on the edge of several big blowup games. Week 12 marked new heights for the shifty first-year wideout as Rice led his team with ten targets, eight receptions, 107 yards, and one touchdown. The second closest receiver on the team (Travis Kelce) posted six receptions for 91 yards, exemplifying Rice’s career highs to be a product of his ever-growing talent and development as opposed to a mere one-off performance. For weeks Rice had been linearly progressing as the Chiefs top wideout, leading all players at the wide receiver position in total routes, targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns but had yet to put a truly emphatic performance on his resume. His career-best outing in Week 12 culminated in 24.7 PPR Points and a weekly finish as the WR3 overall. Attaching yourself to high-value targets from Patrick Mahomes is always a good way to increase your stock but doing so on a consistent basis has lifted Rice into the realm of potential league-winner as we close out the 2023 season.
Pat Freiermuth (TE) - Pittsburgh Steelers
Pat Freiermuth exists in a rarefied air of consistent producers at a position of scarcity yet receives minimal recognition for his consummate ability to finish within the top 12 tight ends in any given week while also providing a top-5 ceiling. Injuries and the offensive dysfunction instilled by former coordinator Matt Canada had created a vacuum of negative perception which Freiermuth was unable to escape despite his high-end profile as a youthful producer at the position. The Steelers' tight end was quick to lay those wistful dispositions to rest with a resounding performance in Week 12. Freiermuth had missed five consecutive games with a hamstring injury before returning to the lineup against the unstoppable force that is the Browns defense. A change in authority along with an additional week to get healthy did wonders for Freiermuth as the youngster grabbed nine receptions for 120 yards on 11 targets, leading the Steelers in all receiving categories while George Pickens ranked second with just 58 receiving yards and Dionate Johnson fell behind with just four receptions. Freiermuth’s team-leading opportunity share in Week 12 could perceivably regress in the coming weeks. With that said, his utility as one of fantasy football’s top producers in a position that is nearly impossible to find consistency cannot be understated as the third-year tight end’s stock is undoubtedly on the rise.
STOCK DOWN
Cooper Kupp (WR) - Los Angeles Rams
In his first two games back from injured reserve, Cooper Kupp posted 15 receptions for 266 yards and one touchdown on 21 targets. In the five games since his return, the Rams star receiver has combined for just 12 total receptions, 127 yards, and zero touchdowns with just 30 targets. Kupp’s usage and production have been lacking at a concerning rate as the veteran wideout falls behind Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams for touches. Kupp has not once led the team in opportunities since his first game back while seeing decreases in total target percentage, routes run, yards per catch, yards per target, and yards per route. Dealing with several nagging injuries has done little to help the former Triple Crown winner return to his league-winning ways and at the age of 30, it may be safe to say that we have already seen the absolute best of what Kupp has to offer. There is still plenty of time left on the 2023 season clock for Kupp to regress toward his norm but expecting a return to form like we saw in years past is incredibly unlikely.
Josh Dobbs (QB) - Minnesota Vikings
The fantasy football fairytale that was Joshua Dobbs’ late-career resurgence came crashing to a destructive halt in Week 12 as the veteran signal-caller produced inarguably his worst start of the 2023 season. The leash on Dobbs’ value is understandably extremely short in the eyes of fantasy managers and a four-interception showing against the Bears has several questioning whether or not the fan-favorite deserves another chance in their lineups. After overcoming all odds and expectations as the Cardinals starter and Vikings replacement for Kirk Cousins, Dobbs completed 22/32 pass attempts in Week 12, amassing a mere 185 yards and one touchdown while coughing up four interceptions to cost his team the win in a close 12-10 loss. Dobbs’ stock as a must-start fantasy quarterback has drastically declined with the Vikings set to take their mandated bye in Week 13 and matches against the Raiders (Week 14), Bengals (Week 15), and Lions (Week 16) in the coming weeks. It would be foolish to fully count out the perennial underdog after all he has done to maintain relevance but managers are finally digesting the bitter taste that can be left in your mouth when you bite the bullet on starting a career backup journeyman against tough defenses.
D.K. Metcalf (WR) - Seattle Seahawks
The value that D.K. Metcalf continues to hold on the market is a product of nothing more than his namesake as the Seahawks' star wideout has been a constant underperformer this season. The Seahawks' passing offense has majorly regressed from 2022 as Geno Smith fails to find a spark to the magic that led to his career resurgence. No member of the offense has fallen greater victim to Smith’s regression than the big-bodied wideout in question. Metcalf hit new lows of inefficiency, collecting just 32 yards on three receptions despite leading the team with nine targets in Week 12. He now has recorded just as many games below 50 yards as he has above 50 yards this season and has just one game with more than five receptions since Week 8. Metcalf is trending down as a volatile boom-or-bust wideout on an offense that suddenly has too many mouths to feed. The increased development of first-round rookie wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba alongside the newfound utility of rookie running back Zach Charbonnet has helped the Seahawks spread the ball around rather than hyper-focusing on one target. The continued presence of Tyler Lockett and workhorse running back Kenneth Walker are further limiting Metcalf’s ability to consistently earn the alpha share of targets and touches. Although it is safe to concede that the aforementioned rookies are merely tertiary options at the time of writing, it is also highly likely that those opportunities increase as the season comes to a close with the Seahawks focusing more on their future successes as opposed to clawing their way to a first-round exit in the playoffs.
Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
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By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.