Dynasty Market Report: Week 13

Managing a Dynasty roster is about building long-lasting success in the chaotic and unpredictable landscape of fantasy football. The idea should be to give yourself as many assets/bargaining chips as possible so that when you move all in, the deck is stacked in your favor. “We are card counters at the blackjack table, and we’re going to turn the odds at the casino.” Today, we look at some intriguing assets in Dynasty, drawing unbiased values from Sleeper ADP, Dynasty League Football, and KeepTradeCut in an attempt to exploit certain market discrepancies. As always, we will be viewing these players and values through a Superflex lens.

WEEK 13 DYNASTY MARKET REPORT

Notable Market Risers

C.J. Stroud (QB) & Tank Dell (WR) - Houston Texans

• There is no way managers could have ever anticipated that C.J. Stroud and Tank Dell would both have cemented themselves as cornerstone top-12 assets prior to the start of the 2023 season. Not only are both players ranked amongst the top-30 players overall on Dynasty market calculators but Stroud has lifted himself above nearly all other quarterbacks, settling in as the QB4 behind only Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts. As for his rookie teammate, there have only been five rookie wide receivers to record more than 16.0 PPG in their first season: Ja’Marr Chase, Odell Beckham Jr. Justin Jefferson, Mike Evans, and Michael Thomas. If his current averages hold up for the remainder of the season, Texans rookie wideout Tank Dell would become the sixth. Dell currently sits as the WR12/30th player overall and will likely continue to increase the said value if he remains amongst the names in the aforementioned list.

Dak Prescott (QB) - Dallas Cowboys

• No one in the NFL is playing a better brand of football than Dak Prescott and the masses appear to agree as the Cowboys star quarterback currently leads all players as the frontrunner in early MVP voting. After an injury-riddled 2022 season and a slow start to 2023, Prescott has catapulted himself to new heights after finishing as the QB3 overall or better in five of his last six contests. A 40.2-point outing in Week 12 was yet another feather in the cap during his incredible stretch. His elevated ranking as the QB11/32nd player overall on consensus calculators is the cherry on top.

Rashee Rice (WR) - Kansas City Chiefs

• The long road to relevance for Rashee Rice finally met an apex in Week 12 with a sensational breakout performance from the rising rookie. Rice topped all members of the Chiefs in every receiving category in his last outing, catching eight of ten targets for 107 yards and one touchdown, leading to a WR3 (24.7 PPR Points) finish on the week. Attaching yourself to high-value targets from Patrick Mahomes is always an easy way to increase your Dynasty market value but earning those targets on a consistent basis has lifted Rice into the realm of potential league-winner as we close out the 2023 season. Managers are not flying blind to Rice’s utility and have since lifted him to the height of WR24/55th player overall.

Trey McBride (TE) - Arizona Cardinals

• Trey McBride has built a 2023 resume of high-end production that is proving exactly why the up-and-coming star was the first tight end selected in the 2022 NFL Draft. McBride boasts an uber-elite analytic receiving profile from his collegiate days and is swiftly transitioning into an NFL superstar despite a slow developmental year in his rookie season. He has four top-10 finishes in the last five games, including TE1 (Week 8), TE2 (Week 10), and TE6 (Week 12) outings where he topped his team in targets and production. The market continues to push McBride up the value ladder as the young star at a scarce position finds himself ranked as the TE6/75th player overall ahead of Kyle Pitts (TE7), George Kittle (TE9), Cole Kmet (TE10), Dallas Goedert (TE11) and Pat Freiermuth (TE12).

Pat Freiermuth (TE) - Pittsburgh Steelers

• Injuries and the offensive dysfunction instilled by former coordinator Matt Canada had created a vacuum of negative perception which Pat Freiermuth was unable to escape despite his high-end profile as a youthful producer at the position. A change in authority along with an additional week to get healthy did wonders for Freiermuth as the youngster grabbed nine receptions for 120 yards on 11 targets, leading the Steelers in all receiving categories. The third-year tight end finds himself rightfully ranked amongst the top-12 positional assets once again, needing just one game to remind his detractors of his immense upside.

Notable Market Fallers

Geno Smith (QB) - Seattle Seahawks

• Geno Smith has regressed mightily from his 2022 season heights that saw the veteran quarterback finish as a top-10 quarterback after spending most of his career as an afterthought on team benches. As 2023 progresses, it has become vastly apparent that there may have been solid reasoning for Smith’s career arc as a perennial backup and replacement-level player. Through 11 starts this season, Smith has completed 236 of his 361 attempts for a respectable 65.4% completion percentage but has managed just 12 touchdowns to eight interceptions while averaging a middling 234.9 yards per game. He has also absorbed 27 total sacks this season, netting a combined loss of 210 yards while adding three more turnovers to his 2023 resume via fumbles. The leash has been shortened on the late bloomer as the market no longer values Smith as a must-own player, even in Superflex formats. The veteran quarterback has fallen outside of the top-24 positional assets with a current market consensus ranking of QB26/140th player overall in a shared tier with Baker Mayfield (QB 24/125th Player Overall), and Kenny Pickett (QB25/139th Player Overall).

Cooper Kupp (WR) - Los Angeles Rams

• In his first two games back from injured reserve, Cooper Kupp posted 15 receptions for 266 yards and one touchdown on 21 targets. In the five games since his return, the Rams star receiver has combined for just 12 total receptions, 127 yards, and zero touchdowns with just 30 targets. Dealing with several nagging injuries has done little to help the former Triple Crown winner return to his league-winning ways and at the age of 30, it may be safe to say that we have already seen the absolute best of what Kupp has to offer. 

George Pickens (WR) - Pittsburgh Steelers

• The return of Diontae Johnson and his monstrous target-hogging ways has rightfully left managers to question the utility of George Pickens as a Dynasty asset. The return of Pat Freiermuth into the lineup has all but destroyed Pickens' value as a young up-and-coming asset. The second-year wideout still possesses plenty of promise and a much-needed firing of Matt Canada as offensive coordinator could be exactly what the doctor ordered when it comes to getting Pickens a healthy share of targets. For now, the Dynasty market has decided that a discount is in order as the risk becomes increasingly more apparent with the second-year receiver operating as a depth piece behind the aforementioned pass-catchers as well as Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren.

The Cleveland Browns Offense

• No member of the Browns offense has been safe from the drastic value declines caused by Deshaun Watson's season-ending injury. Not to say that Watson’s presence has major positive effects on the offense in general as their franchise quarterback struggled to find consistency but the simple implication of hope was enough to minimally insulate the value of the weapons involved. Without Watson, Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, David Njoku, and Jerome Ford have all received noticeable hits to their Dynasty rankings.

Dynasty Waiver Adds

Greg Dortch (WR) - Arizona Cardinals

• Greg Dortch has played more than 75.0% of the offensive snaps on just two occasions this season. In fact, before Week 11, Dortch had yet to play more than 40.0% of the team’s snaps in any outing. The Cardinals receiver has taken advantage of his increased playing time during the past two games, posting six receptions for 76 yards on eight targets in Week 11 followed by three catches for 27 yards and one touchdown on nine targets in Week 12. If Dortch continues to produce double-digit fantasy numbers he could find himself on a lot of playoff rosters to end the year.

Tucker Kraft (TE) - Green Bay Packers

• The second of the Packers' two rookie tight ends selected in 2023, Tucker Kraft has an opportunity to make a name for himself as Luke Musgrave will be placed on injured reserve. Kraft has all the intangibles to be a legitimate receiving threat and sneaky plug-and-play addition to your TEP lineups should he maintain the starting role. 

Tommy DeVito (QB) - New York Giants

• With Daniel Jones (Knee) and Tyrod Taylor (Ribs) both on injured reserve, the Giants have no other contingency in place other than to roll out Tommy DeVito as their starting quarterback. DeVito should be rostered in 100.0% of Superflex leagues, simply for his starting status.

Jake Browning (QB) - Cincinnati Bengals

• Jake Browning has been forced into a starting role after Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending wrist injury in Week 11. Browning is likely a non-factor in your lineups but should still be rostered for the mere chance of an unlikely breakout.

Buy Low

Marquise Brown (WR) - Arizona Cardinals

• Marquise Brown will likely never return the same value on the trade market that he brings to your roster as an underrated producer of high-end production. The bad news is that Brown won’t yield a first-round rookie pick in return when paraded on the trade block. The good news is that the Cardinals star wideout remains an easily acquirable asset with a sky-high career range of outcomes and several seasons of positive production both under his belt and in his future.

Sell High

D.K. Metcalf (WR) - Seattle Seahawks

• The value that D.K. Metcalf continues to hold on the market is a product of nothing more than his namesake as the Seahawks' star wideout has been a frustratingly volatile asset to roster this season. The increased development of first-round rookie wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba alongside the newfound utility of rookie running back Zach Charbonnet has helped the Seahawks spread the ball around rather than hyper-focusing on one target. The continued presence of Tyler Lockett and workhorse running back Kenneth Walker are further limiting Metcalf’s ability to consistently earn the alpha share of targets and touches. Although it is safe to concede that the aforementioned rookies are merely tertiary options at the time of writing, it is also highly likely that those opportunities increase as the season comes to a close with the Seahawks focusing more on their future successes as opposed to clawing their way to a first-round exit in the playoffs.

Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.

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By Matt Ward