SLEEPERS
QB: Jordan Love - Green Bay Packers
Dak Prescott is far too hot and highly rostered to justify calling him a sleeper despite me viewing him as the QB1 overall this week. Jordan Love, however, probably fits the definition. He has managed to post six QB1 finishes this season including weeks as the QB3 and QB6 overall. Love hasn’t quite gotten back to his incredible early-season form where he threw for three touchdowns and no interceptions in two consecutive games. However, the last time he faced the Lions, he ended as the QB12 overall despite throwing two interceptions. A rushing touchdown saved his day but his point totals and ability to get at least one score in almost every game has given him a solid floor. Love finally threw for over 300 yards for the first time in his career this past week and appears to be mitigating his turnover-worthy plays. He will now face a Lions defense that ranks 14th in True Matchup Rank to quarterbacks while ranking 9th in passing production allowed. Love isn’t your typical rushing quarterback but has gotten solid gains to keep bolstering his fantasy floor. The Lions are favored by more than a touchdown and have been beatable through the air despite boasting a solid run defense. I don’t expect Love to show out in this rematch but he should once again find himself as a top-12 option at the position. He’s not a deep-fried turkey but he’s a side dish that even the worst chef can’t mess up too badly.
Themi Michalakis
RB: Rhamondre Stevenson - New England Patriots
The classic mid-2000s Super Bowl rematch between the Giants and Patriots yields a saddened reminder of yesteryear as both franchises have lost all identity. The Patriots have three quarterbacks vying for a starting role after Mac Jones was benched and may very well wait until game day to hand over the reins. The Giants are going to rely on Tommy DeVito who admittedly played well against one of the worst secondaries in the league. Both of these teams are eyeing similar draft slots as they could both use an elite quarterback or wide receiver in the 2024 draft class (or a smothering of other positional upgrades). We’re in line for an ugly game but the game plan for both teams seems simple: generate pressure on defense and run the ball on offense. The Giants are pretty weak in the secondary so whichever quarterback steps up may be able to take advantage of that, but they’re better off hitting them down the middle. The Giants are 8th in True Matchup Rank to opposing running backs and while they have a few studs on defense, they’re lacking depth outside of them. The Giants have allowed six RB1 performances this season alongside a handful of high-end RB2 games. Rhamondre Stevenson is not in an elite offense and has been in a split with Ezekiel Elliott but he hasn’t had this good of a matchup at any point this season. Four of Stevenson’s best games have come against defenses currently in the top 11 in True Matchup Rank for RBs. It’s not shocking that players do better in good matchups but he shouldn’t be worse than an RB2 this week, with high-end RB1 upside if he can score. The red zone usage has been fairly balanced but nobody outside of Elliott has been a threat on the ground. They can both eat.
Themi Michalakis
WR: Brandin Cooks - Dallas Cowboys
After starting the season off with incredibly uncharacteristic slothlike production, Brandin Cooks exploded with a WR3 outing in Week 10, only to fall back to earth in Week 11 with a WR48 finish against the Panthers. It may feel increasingly difficult to trust the veteran’s boom-or-bust profile in your lineups but his upcoming matchup is simply too scintillating to ignore. The Cowboys (7-3) play host to the Commanders (4-7) in their yearly Thanksgiving Day Classic with betting lines favoring the hometown team by a whopping 13.5 points and a projected Over/Under scoring total of 48.5. The Commanders' defense is inarguably one of the weakest units in the NFL, especially after trading away Pro Bowl edge rushers Montez Sweat and Chase Young. They allow 386.9 scrimmage yards (29th) with 258.5 passing yards (30th) and 114.3 rushing yards (21st) per game. They are the league’s worst defense in terms of points allowed, giving up a stunning 27.7 points per game to their opposition. Their biggest weakness comes from stemming the high-end production of virtually every receiver they face. The Commanders give up 36.8 combined PPG (2nd Overall) to rival receivers, ranked 1st in Broto Fantasy’s True Matchup Rank with a Points Over Average of 58.0%. There is no denying Cooks’ position behind top alpha wideout CeeDee Lamb but nothing suggests that both players can’t feast on this wonderful holiday of hedonism.
Matt Ward
TE: Pat Freiermuth - Pittsburgh Steelers
Blame Canada! Blame Canada! I highly doubt that Trey Parker and Matt Stone ever assumed that their Academy-Award-nominated original would become an anthem for the Steelers offense in 2023 but here we are. The organization finally made a collective and conscious effort to improve by firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada. A change in play-calling and offensive philosophy is an undeniable must for this offense. The unpredictable nature of what’s to come has managers justifiably shying away from all Steelers’ offensive weapons. Although the risk is palpable, I am not nearly as shy as the masses when it comes to Pat Freiermuth. The Steelers star tight end has missed much of the 2023 season with a hamstring injury and did little to impact the field in his first game back from injured reserve. With that said, there is not a better matchup to get right than against the Bengals in Week 12. The Steelers (6-4) travel to face the division rival Bengals (5-5) as 2.0-point road favorites. The Bengals' defense ranks first amongst all teams in True Matchup Rank to opposing tight ends, allowing 12.4 PPG (3rd Overall) with a Points Over Average of 68.0%. Any menial increase in offensive cohesion could lead to a week-winning performance from several members of the Steelers offense.
Matt Ward
BUSTS
QB: Sam Howell - Washington Commanders
The Cowboys have allowed just three QB1 games this season, and they came from Brock Purdy (QB7), Justin Herbert (QB6), and Jalen Hurts (QB3). Although Howell is leading the league in pass attempts, completions, and - naturally - passing yards, he’s not necessarily making every throw count. That may not be an issue in fantasy as the team is generally down and needs to make a big play but it falls apart when Howell is off his game. Just look at his four-interception game against the Bills, or when he couldn’t stay upright in his first game against the Giants. Howell has been able to avoid high sack numbers in recent weeks, and his fantasy performances have flourished because of it. However, facing BY FAR the most difficult defense of the season will prove challenging. The Bills may look bad now but they were essentially at full strength in that game early in the season. The Cowboys are 3rd in defensive DVOA and 4th against the pass. In True Matchup Rank, they’re the 8th hardest matchup for QBs. They’re a little more vulnerable to QB points on the ground but Howell only gets modest totals that give him a decent floor. The Commanders' offense can be as explosive as any team but Sam Howell is a volatile player who can sink your team during a key week. In deep leagues, you may have to take that risk but I’m pivoting in multiple of mine. The Cowboys' defense is SCARY, but maybe not as scary as that controversial subject your uncle is going to bring up at the dinner table.
Themi Michalakis
RB: Khalil Herbert - Chicago Bears
Khalil Herbert was a major disappointment in his return from IR in Week 11. He was facing a tough divisional opponent that hasn’t been very kind to running backs in fantasy and is probably still recovering from the injury that kept him sidelined in the first place. Although Justin Fields led the team in rushing attempts and yards, Herbert handled lead duties in the backfield while D’Onta Foreman saw a dip in usage. It is worth noting that Foreman was in and out of the contest while dealing with an ankle injury yet was still able to vulture looks from Herbert – as did rookie Roschon Johnson. Herbert carried the ball 16 times for 35 yards and was the only member of the Bears backfield to see a target that game. It’s fair to assume that there will be better games in Herbert’s future but this was an ideal game-script where he still failed to put up fantasy points. He now gets another tough divisional matchup with the Vikings. Last week, the Broncos were held to 46 rushing yards as a team. Since getting shredded by D’Andre Swift in Week 2, no running back has surpassed 65 rushing yards against the Vikings. Herbert isn’t a massive threat through the air but his limited targets reduce his floor and ceiling. Regardless, the Vikings are 28th in True Matchup Rank for RBs and there may still be a decent split going in this backfield. A touchdown could be the only metric to save Herbert’s day but red zone usage has been mixed. Herbert may have missed time but it’s still pretty telling that Darrnyton Evans is nearing him in red zone rushing attempts while Forman, Fields, and Johnson all best him. This is not the week to use him.
Themi Michalakis
WR: Courtland Sutton - Denver Broncos
The magic that Courtland Sutton and Russell Wilson have cooked up over the last four games is reminiscent of a Cinderella story glow-up as the team has won four consecutive contests after starting the season 1-5. In those four games, Sutton has finished as the WR8, WR36, WR16, and WR14 and has caught a touchdown in each of his last five outings while Jerry Jeudy and Marvin Mims fail to make an impact. Unfortunately, it appears as if the fairy tale of fantasy production from Sutton is about to strike midnight as the Broncos (5-5) play host to the visiting Browns (7-3) in a game that favors the home team by a mere 1.5 points with a projected Over/Under scoring total of just 36.5 points. As good as the Broncos have been recently, the Browns' defense has been better. The NFL’s top-rated defensive unit is allowing just 266.1 scrimmage yards (1st), 143.7 passing yards (1st), and 99.6 rushing yards (10th) while allowing a conversion on third down at a league-low 25.4% (1st) and giving up only 18.0 points per game (5th). The Browns concede a meager 19.9 combined PPG (31st) to wide receivers, ranked 30th in True Matchup Rank with a negative Points Over Average of (-)22.0%. The Browns are a legitimate playoff threat on the back of their defense alone. It would be foolish to count the Broncos out of the game entirely but counting on Sutton to continue to produce is equally as fruitless.
Matt Ward
TE: Isaiah Likely - Baltimore Ravens
The unfortunate loss of Mark Andrews has propelled Isaiah Likely into a starter’s role once again. The second-year tight end has high aspirations in his role after stringing together several successful games in this position as a rookie. With that said, things are much different within the Ravens offense than they were in 2022. Likely was operating as the team’s top pass-catching weapon without Andrews in the lineup last season as the Ravens dealt with a myriad of injuries on an extremely shallow depth chart. Although more than a few devastating injuries have occurred on the roster, the overall depth of pass-catchers has helped soften the blow. Where Likely was once the unquestioned top dog, he now has to share targets with Odell Beckham Jr, Rashod Bateman, Zay Flowers, and the vulturing presence of Nelson Agholor. My season-long outlook on Likely is much higher than the current disposition held when looking at his Week 12 matchup. The Ravens (8-3) travel to face the Chargers (4-6) with the road team favored by 3.5 points and a projected Over/Under scoring total of 48.5. The Chargers are by no means a world-beater when it comes to stuffing tight end production but they are far from the worst, ranking 16th overall in Broto Fantasy’s True Matchup Rank. The trickle-down of Andrews vacated targets will surely give Likely a serviceable floor but the main benefactors of increased opportunities should fall to the Ravens wide receivers for the foreseeable future.
Matt Ward
THANKSGIVING SLEEPERS
Turkey Trots
Yeah, I like to run. Deal with it. Have you ever had a runner’s high? I didn’t think so. Listen, I am firmly on the Turkey Bowl train until my body can’t handle it anymore but after that, I’m going back to the trot. The clean, crisp morning air. The silence around the neighborhood as you watch the sunrise. The rush you get from barely finishing what some people call a warmup. It’s something you can feel proud of before collapsing on the couch and waking up just in time to stuff your face. Do not EVER complain to me that being able to fit more food in your stomach is a bad thing. You can even walk this thing. Please do something good for your body for once. I’m not your mother.
Themi Michalakis
Mid-Afternoon Naps
Nothing can quite cap off the illustrious feeling of overconsumption like a good mid-afternoon nap. When it comes to the various tiers of napping greatness, few hold up to the sheer overcoming inevitability of a post-turkey dinner snooze. Does work have you down during the holidays? Mid-afternoon nap can take care of that. Struggling with a little insomnia? Allow the turkey to sing the lullabies baby because we’re passing out before 3 pm with a belly full of imbibements.
Matt Ward
THANKSGIVING BUSTS
Time With Relatives
It takes roughly four to six hours to properly cook a small turkey. It takes less than thirty seconds for me to despise my relatives. I understand that this is a time when the family can finally put their hectic lives aside and enjoy the company of those that share the dinner table but the incessant small talk and micro-aggressive judgments that come from your great Aunt Patty coupled with the fawning attention that your family gives your sister’s new boyfriend are enough to warrant a trip away from the family next holiday season.
Matt Ward
Thanksgiving Football Games
A football writer and lover complaining that we get the greatest sport in the world nearly ALL DAY? Yes, that’s right. I love a good NFL game on Thanksgiving, even the bad ones! Maybe it’s just my family but I find it annoying to try to give my complete attention to the game while also trying to speak with my family and friends. Then I have to answer questions from people who don’t even want to know the answer but think it’s good to put me through the torture of explaining a first down 17 times. “Why doesn’t he just run to the outside?” SHUT UP. These games are great but it’s hard to cram all three into my schedule when I’m watching baby cousins, helping pass out slices of pie, and falling into a food coma. I don’t want these games to go away but the experience is heavily reliant on the family you were born into, or married into.
Themi Michalakis
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For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.