Thanksgiving might just be the best holiday we have. Whether you play in or watch a turkey bowl, put on the Macy’s parade, or just sleep in before pigging out, there’s so much to do while eating delicious food. With a slate of three games to watch, you may also feel inclined to place a few bets. Unfortunately, all three of these games have some massive spreads but it doesn’t mean we can’t find value. Before our main edition of BRoto Bets, here’s a short Thanksgiving edition:
Teaser:
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (-7.5) O/U: 47
San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) @ Seattle Seahawks O/U: 43
Themi’s Teaser: Lions -1.5, 49ers -0.5
America’s team plays every Thanksgiving. That may not be referring to the Dallas Cowboys anymore. It’s early in a promising new regime but the Detroit Lions are a fun team with one of the coolest coaches you could ask for. Most importantly, they’re winning a lot and looking great. They may not have been perfect last week as they hosted Justin Fields but they came back and got the job done. The Packers are coming off a win against the Chargers as they choked away another loss. Green Bay has managed to beat - or nearly beat - some mediocre teams but I expect a lot of trouble against one of the NFC’s strongest contenders. The last time these teams met was also on Thursday, though the Thanksgiving games are not technically considered “Thursday Night Football”. The Lions won 34-20 in enemy territory and will be feeling great as they now host their division rivals. Christian Watson finally scored this year and Jordan Love has looked ok even without Aaron Jones but this team has a much better defense than the Chargers. More importantly, they win in the face of adversity. Getting this line down to -1.5 is about as sweet as the potatoes I’m going to eat.
The 49ers were on a 3-game skid but came off a well-timed bye week to outscore their next two opponents 61-17. It’s also worth noting that SF lost to the Browns, Vikings, and Bengals. Had it not been for QB injuries, all three of those teams would be clear contenders for their own division and could even fight for a Super Bowl spot with either a great offense or defense. They’ve since taken down the Jaguars and Bucs. The 9ers are heading to Seattle for a key divisional matchup. A win for the Seahawks would see them take the NFC West lead but things aren’t looking bright. Starting RB Kenneth Walker III went down early and is in danger of missing this game on such a short turnaround. Rookie Zach Charbonnet will finally get a chance to shine and has looked good in limited usage. An even bigger issue is Geno Smith’s availability. Smith was briefly sidelined with an elbow injury which allowed Drew Lock to come in and throw an interception to hand the Rams the lead. Pete Carroll seems to be optimistic about his chances of playing so it’s better to view this as if he were starting. Injuries aside, Seattle is just not built to convincingly beat the 49ers. When they’re healthy, Brock Purdy is a world-beater. Facing a below-average defense and boasting an excellent one of their own, you have to assume San Francisco comes out on top.
Player Props:
Brian Robinson Over 38.5 Rushing Yards (-115) (DraftKings)
The Cowboys have been more susceptible on the ground than through the air. Even in blowouts, starting RBs have managed to hit this mark. The sophomore back hasn’t received the biggest workload in the world but he’s getting the majority of carries and can be quite efficient with limited work. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Robinson is averaging 0.35 rushing yards over expected per attempt which ranks 15th in the league. The Commanders are also running 41.7% of the time when trailing (11th highest) and 57.1% of the time when tied (5th highest). I trust Robinson to get a decent rushing total even in a projected blowout.
Curtis Samuel Under 29.5 Receiving Yards (-114) (FanDuel)
Despite facing some soft secondaries in recent weeks, Samuel has been trending downward all year. He was a passable fantasy asset in full PPR against the Cardinals, Bills, Eagles, Bears, and Falcons, but has now seen a drop in targets, receptions, and yards per reception. Samuel was already a very low aDOT receiving option and it looks like Byron Pringle is getting a lot more work and even Dyami Brown and Jamison Crowder are in the mix for an uptick in targets. Samuel is getting old and this team is going to constantly be behind and needing to drive down the field. It just seems like they’ve moved on from him. According to PFF’s Nathan Jahnke, Samuel only played 13 snaps and ran 8 routes last week against the Giants, 6th amongst Commanders WRs. That’s mainly due to his ejection after fighting with Giants CB Cor’Dale Flott with 4 minutes left in the 1st half. Samuel could easily return to his WR3 role on this team but 30 yards has unfortunately been a big ask even against weaker secondaries. Jourdan Lewis presents a good matchup in the slot which Bryce Young took full advantage of last week but Adam Thielen was already their best receiver and still very talented despite his age. This one may be closer than it appears but I still like it. Samuel will face a healthy amount of DaRon Bland and Stephon Gilmore.
Dak Prescott Over 260.5 Passing Yards (-114) (FanDuel)
Arguably the hottest QB in the league right now, Dak has been going crazy throwing the ball. Over the past 4 games, he has averaged 318 passing yards per game while throwing a combined 13 TDS to only 2 INTs. A drop in usage for Tony Pollard has benefited the Cowboys passing game and they were about an inch away from a 5-game win streak. Now facing a division rival that has given them trouble on Thanksgiving, they have no reason to slow down. The Commanders have been better against the run than box scores may show. They’re 10th in DVOA and 9th in EPA. On the other hand, they’re a bottom-3 pass defense that just let Tommy Devito and Darius Slayton go crazy on them. The Cowboys have benefited from taking advantage of great passing matchups and this is just another one to love. The Commanders have not always excelled against good defenses but Sam Howell is willing to sling the ball - often to a fault - which could put Dallas in a negative game-script to force them to pass. Regardless, I expect Dak and CeeDee to have monster games this week.
Tony Pollard Under 65.5 Rushing Yards (-115) (PointsBet)
A lot of the information about the difference between the rushing and passing matchups for the Commanders was covered in the Dak Prescott prop. Pollard hasn’t been especially great on the ground and hasn’t exceeded 15 carries since Week 3’s loss to the Cardinals. He also hasn’t exceeded 61 rushing yards since that game after starting the year pretty hot. Pollard doesn’t even face 8 or more defenders in the box very often but his rushing yards over expected is at -0.14 per attempt, 32nd out of 48 qualified RBs. Deuce Vaughn hasn’t taken a lot of rushes as a rookie but Rico Dowdle has gotten more work in consecutive blowouts. Although I believe in Washington’s ability to generate offensive success, they’re also a team extremely prone to getting blown out by one of the best teams in the league. I don’t fancy their chances of hanging around with this large of a point spread. Pollard just needs one big run but the passing mismatch puts me on the under here.
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by Themi Michalakis
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.