Week 11 did not pan out as I had envisioned but I still had some nice reccomendations. Let’s take a quick look back.
QB: Brock Purdy- 31.36, Jared Goff- 16.7
RB: Breece Hall- 18.3, Jahmyr Gibbs- 21.5
WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown- 21.7, Tank Dell- 31.9, DeAndre Hopkins- 15.9, Brandon Aiyuk- 29.6, Tyreek Hill- 33.6
TE: Dalton Kincaid- 10.6, Trey McBride- 9.3
D/ST: MIA D/ST- 12
My best GPP lineup didn’t cash but, here is the lineup:
QB: Brock Purdy- 29.72
RB: Breece Hall- 18.3
RB: Devin Singletary- 22.8
WR: Christian Kirk- 7.8
WR: Tank Dell- 31.9
WR: Marquise Brown- 3.2
TE: George Kittle- 22.9
FLEX: Deebo Samuel- 9.2
D/ST: Jets D/ST- 2
For a total of 147.82 points!
Time to identify more winners for Week 12!
Week 12 DraftKings slate
Games to target:
1. TB @ IND - 43.5 O/U
Implied totals: TB 20.5; IND 23
2. JAX @ HOU - 48.5 O/U
Implied totals: JAX 25; HOU 23.5
3. LAR @ ARI – 44.5 O/U
Implied totals: LAR 23; ARI 21.5
4. BUF @ PHI - 48.5 O/U
Implied totals: BUF 22.75; PHI 25.75
Top Cash Plays:
Quarterbacks
Week 12 seems like a spot where you can go high or low depending on your build.
Josh Allen ($8,100)
Allen exercised his demons in Week 11 against the Jets, throwing for 275 yards and 3 TDs. Per Broto’s True Matchup Rank, the Eagles are the #1 matchup for opposing QBs, 2nd best matchup for opposing WRs, and 8th best matchup for opposing TEs. Allen is usable in cash and a strong GPP play.
Baker Mayfield ($5,500)
Mayfield makes for a decent cash option if you’re looking to pay down in Week 12. He’s 10th in pass attempts and 9th in aDOT, so he’s providing plenty of volume. Mayfield’s opponent in Week 12 is the Colts, who rank as the 6th best matchup for opposing QBs, 6th best matchup for opposing TEs, and 10th best matchup for opposing WRs. Baker checks all the boxes for a cheap cash QB play.
Other options: Kyler Murray ($6,900), C.J Stroud ($7,700)
Running Back
Travis Etienne ($7,100)
Etienne had tough matchups against the 49ers and Titans in Weeks 10 & 11, and it showed in his fantasy production of 6.4 and 8.9 fantasy points. Etienne now gets to face a Texans defense that ranks as the 12th best matchup for opposing RBs. He produced 17.8 fantasy points in his 1st matchup against the Texans.
Rachaad White ($6,100)
White has been consistently producing this season. White ranks 5th in targets, 3rd in receptions, 9th in True Target Value (TTaV) and 8th in target share. He’s had 10+ rushing attempts in all but three games this season and 3+ targets in every game except one. White gets the Colts in Week 12, who rank as the 2nd best matchup for opposing RBs.
Wide Receiver
Stefon Diggs ($8,800)
Diggs has been boom-or-bust this season, however, his matchup in Week 12 is glaring. The Eagles rank as the 2nd best matchup for opposing WRs. Combine that with Diggs ranking 3rd in targets and receptions, and 7th in both target share and red zone opportunities, and Diggs is live to boom this week in cash and GPPs.
Michael Pittman ($6,800)
Pittman has quietly been a target machine in 2023. He has 3 straight games with 8 receptions. Pittman is 7th in target share, 8th in True Target Value (TTaV) and 3rd in red zone opportunities. Pittman only has 3 TDs on the season, so he is due for some positive regression. Helping Pittman’s case more is the Bucs defense, who rank as the 6th best matchup for opposing WRs. Trust Pittman to dominate this week.
Demario Douglas ($4,400)
Douglas is a great cheap cash option for Week 12. Douglas has had 6+ targets in his last four games and has scored double digit fantasy points in three of those four games. Enjoy the savings and production from Douglas this week.
Other options: Calvin Ridley ($6,000), Mike Evans ($7,400)
Tight End
Trey McBride ($4,700)
McBride had a down week in Week 11, however, he still had seven targets. McBride has 16 targets over his 1st two games with QB Kyler Murray back. Furthering the case for McBride is the Rams’ defense, which ranks as the 3rd best matchup for opposing TEs.
David Njoku ($4,100)
Njoku has 5 straight games of double digit fantasy points which coincides with his streak of 6 or more targets in that same time period. Njoku really showed off in Week 11, earning 15 targets from QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Njoku also benefits from facing the Broncos in Week 12, who rank as the 4th best matchup for opposing TEs. Njoku can get the job done for you in cash in Week 12.
D/ST
Kansas City Chiefs ($3,100)
The Chiefs defense ranks 3rd in pressure rate and 3rd in total sacks which should cause QB Aidan O’Connell plenty of problems. The Raiders’ QBs rank 4th worst in on-target percentage and 4th in bad throw percentage.
Favorite stacks:
1. Baker Mayfield + Rachaad White + Mike Evans with Michael Pittman bring back.
2. Josh Allen + Stefon Diggs + Dalton Kincaid with AJ Brown or DeVonta Smith bring back. You can also stack the opposite side of this game with Jalen Hurts + AJ Brown + D’Andre Swift with Stefon Diggs and Dalton Kincaid bring back.
3. Kyler Murray + Trey McBride + Marquise Brown with Puka Nacua and/or Kyren Williams bring back.
4. Trevor Lawrence + Calvin Ridley + Evan Engram with Tank Dell and/or Devin Singletary bring back.
GPP Plays:
Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts ($8,300)
Hurts has 20+ fantasy points in every game this season except two. Hurts has been dominant in 2023. He is:
6th in True Throw Value (TTV)
9th in completion percentage - 68.5%
10th in passing yards
2nd in rushing attempts
4th in rushing yards
1st in rushing TDs
With the highest O/U on the slate, Hurts should crank out plenty of points.
I also like my cash options at QB for GPPs this week.
Running Back
Kyren Williams ($6,600)
Williams is back and practicing, so he’s a must start. Williams still ranks 6th in rushing TDs, 10th in True Target Value (TTaV), 10th in red zone opportunities and 4th in PPR PPG. Williams gets a nice welcome back game against the Cardinals defense, who ranks as the 5th best matchup for opposing RBs.
Derrick Henry ($6,400)
2023 hasn’t been kind to “King” Henry. Henry has only had one 20+ point fantasy performance this year. Although things have been grim lately, a matchup against the Panthers’ defense could cure his ails. The Panthers rank as the 3rd best matchup for opposing RBs. The good news for King Henry is that he is still commanding volume by ranking 4th in rushing attempts and 6th in rushing yards.
Wide Receivers
A.J. Brown ($9,000)
A.J. Brown has been dominant this year. Here are some of Brown’s ranks:
9th in receptions
2nd in receiving yards
4th in True Target Value (TTaV)
8th in receiving TDs
6th in target share- 29.4%
9th in point per opportunity excluding TDs (PPOxTD)
5th in PPR PPG- 21.5
Although he had a down week last week, I expect AJB to bounce back this week against a suspect Bills secondary that ranks as the 15th best matchup for opposing WRs.
Tank Dell ($6,900)
Dell has 3 straight games with double digit targets and has gone over 100+ receiving yards in two of those three. Dell ranks 9th in aDOT and 8th in receiving TDs on the season.
Tight Ends
I am comfortable using my cash TEs recommendations for GPPs however, I’ll give you another option for this week.
TE Dalton Kincaid ($5,300)
Kincaid has had 5 straight games with double digit fantasy points. Kincaid ranks 4th in receptions, 10th in receiving yards, and 7th in points per opportunity excluding TDs (PPOxTD). The Bills TE also gets a great matchup against the Eagles’ defense, who rank as the 8th best matchup for opposing TEs.
D/ST
I’m sticking with my cash D/ST for GPPs.
Lone Ranger (sub $5,000 player that can score over 10 fantasy points)
Quentin Johnson sucks and has frying pan hands. Time to try again in Week 12 with a 10-11 record.
WR Demario Douglas ($4,400) and Josh Downs ($4,800)
As previously mentioned, Douglas is a great play at $4,400. Downs is recovering from an injury but should be used heavily against a Bucs defense that doesn’t allow teams to run.
Have a great Week 12 of DFS! Win big and be kind to each other!
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By Clayton Jones aka @FF_Pulse_88
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.