Broto Bets went 2-3 last week and lost 1.34 units. The Vikings and Chargers blew their respective games in spectacular fashion as we were looking for a massively profitable day. This week doesn’t entice me much but there’s one teaser I really like.
2023 Total: 28-25-1, -1.785u
Teasers:
Cleveland Browns (+1.5) @ Denver Broncos O/U: 37
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) @ Indianapolis Colts O/U: 44.5
Themi’s Teaser: Browns +7.5, Bucs +8.5
The Broncos are getting hot, or are they? They’ve taken down the Bills and Vikings with close victories after forcing a smothering of turnovers and caught an excellent Chiefs team off guard before that. This isn’t a team you take lightly but the context behind their statement wins needs to be considered. The Broncos have always been relying on their offense this year but over the past few weeks the defense has done some work. Dorian Thompson-Robinson is not lighting the NFL on fire in his limited starts but he took a step forward after failing to produce against the Ravens. Although he threw an interception and looked like he could have thrown even more, it was an alright showing for a 5th round rookie facing an incredible pass rush. Now in a matchup where the team can actually get the run going, I think he can put even more points on the board. With the best defense in the league, Russell Wilson is going to have his work cut out for him. Turnovers could let this game get out of hand once again, but I trust Cleveland to play it safe enough to only lose by a TD.
Coming off a bye, the Colts should be well rested and ready to make a real playoff push. Standing in their way will be a Bucs team that can still win their own division and that has remained resilient even in the toughest matchups. Tampa has lost to the Eagles, Lions, Bills, Texans, and 49ers but could have won two of those. They haven’t lost a game by more than 14 and their only embarrassing loss was a 16-13 home game against the Falcons. Things could change as the Bucs are facing serious defensive injuries. Jamel Dean and Lavonte David are already out and while Devin White logged a limited practice, he’s still questionable. The Colts are going to be missing C Ryan Kelly again but aren’t facing important losses on defense. Tampa has relied on their defense which ranks 12th in DVOA, but their offense is passable. Baker Mayfield is having a solid season, maybe better than most expected. The Colts are pretty susceptible on the ground which could help Rachaad White get going. The sophomore RB hasn’t eclipsed 80 rushing yards in a game all year but his success will naturally be indicative of how the team has performed in a game. The Colts should be able to pass pretty well against Tampa in this one but it’s not like the Bucs don’t have a decent matchup of their own with two star receivers. The Colts are not in the elite category but the context does make this game a little scary. I’m still betting on the Bucs to keep this within about 8.
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by Themi Michalakis
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.