Week 12 Buy Low and Sell High

With Week 11 of the NFL season in the books, Lead Writer Matt Ward has his eyes on three buy-low targets and three sell-high targets heading into Week 12! Take advantage of your league mates by acquiring star players at their lowest value and dealing away volatile players at their highest values!

BUY LOW

Zach Charbonnet (RB) - Seattle Seahawks

As strange as it may sound, Zach Charbonnet may have played *just* bad enough for managers to capitalize on a sensational buy-low window. Kenneth Walker will enter Week 12 with a questionable injury tag after exiting the Seahawks' Week 11 loss with an oblique injury. Charbonnet was immediately entrusted with a three-down workshare upon Walker's departure, handling 15 rushing attempts (75.0% Rush Share) for 47 yards while catching six of his career-best six targets (15.0% Target Share) for 22 yards. He played 85.0% of the offensive snaps (55), including 100.0% of third-down snaps upon Walker’s departure. Although the overall production lends itself to disappoint, the opportunity and usage is increasingly encouraging. Charbonnet could be in a position for league-winning usage should Walker be forced to miss extended time. The low cost of acquisition on an undervalued rookie riser with obvious late-season upside is one that managers should always pursue with a feverish disposition. Look to pivot off of your lowest-level bench asset in an attempt to get Charbonnet on the return.

James Conner (RB) - Arizona Cardinals

Although the top-end touchdown production from 2022 is lacking, James Conner’s usage and utility as the Cardinals' top running back has been downright excellent this season. Conner is maintaining a 76.6% rushing share, 6.6% target share, and 62.3% snap share but is averaging 10.7 PPG (RB32) despite an Expected PPG of 13.8. It is unlikely that we see Conner reach the same scoring averages that propelled him to a top-10 positional finish last season but positive regression appears imminent considering his three-down workshare. The team has been surprisingly competitive all season despite their 2-9 record and should continue to improve as an offensive unit now that Kyler Murray is back in the mix. The offense should undoubtedly be able to increase their scoring ceiling with a superstar quarterback under center and several budding pass-catchers to target. No one will benefit more from the Cardinals' late-season development than Conner as the veteran thumper has cemented himself time and again as the team’s top red zone threat both on the ground and through the air. Float offers out before your trade deadlines and test the waters of panic on Conner. Acquiring the bruising back as an additional flex asset could prove to be a league-winning transaction down the stretch.

Zay Flowers (WR) - Baltimore Ravens

Zay Flowers was one abhorrent holding call away from being the most talked about trade target leading up to fantasy league deadlines. Instead, an Odell Beckham Jr. penalty negated what would have been a 64-yard catch and run for a touchdown, leaving box score watchers to ignore the incredible upside that the young rookie possesses en route to the fantasy football playoffs. An unfortunate injury to Mark Andrews leaves an irreplaceable black hole of targets to fill. Beckham Jr. stepped up in Week 11 as the team’s top receiver but Flowers had previously excelled in the early portions of the 2023 season when Andrews was originally sidelined. The rookie wideout has since cooled off significantly but is now staring down the pipeline of a potentially monumental increase in opportunity share due to his multifaceted profile. Flowers can fill the underneath routes that Andrews has vacated due to his incredible propensity to gain yards after the catch while simultaneously being the team’s best deep ball threat due to his release package and top-end speed. Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman should presumably continue to reprise their roles as outside threats while Flowers sees increased usage over the middle and on short-yardage routes. All three wide receivers could see a perceivable uptick in target share but none will benefit more than the young rookie who has finished as a WR2 or better in each game he has earned more than six targets. Flowers is a quintessential “Buy Low” target for all managers looking to make a playoff push and run at their league championship.

SELL HIGH

Devin Singletary (RB) - Houston Texans

Devin Singletary may very well be the most talented running back on the Texans roster. He is also arguably the most overvalued asset within the offense considering his minimal upside as a pass-catcher and uncertain role when the team is healthy. Singletary has enjoyed a two-game stretch of career-high production with Dameon Pierce sidelined, rushing for a career-best 150 yards on 30 carries (5.0 YPC) and one touchdown in Week 11 as the RB3 (23.6 Half-PPR Points) followed by a 122-yard outing with 22 carries (5.1YPC) and another touchdown in Week 12 where he finished as the RB5 (19.8 Half-PPR Points. Singletary saw just four targets with three receptions for a combined 17 yards during those two games. The inevitable return of Pierce will undoubtedly relegate Singletary to a change-of-pace option with the younger back reprising his bruising early-down role. Knowing that Singletary’s leash for high-upside opportunity shares is incredibly short, it may prove to be a wise decision to pivot off the veteran running back for a player who has solidified themselves as the number one option without the volatility of losing said role.

Tony Pollard (RB) - Dallas Cowboys

See, even GIF Tony Pollard agrees. The man above finally found the endzone in Week 11 against the Panthers – an area of the field that had eluded him since scoring two touchdowns in Week 1 against the Giants. Pollard repaid the stubborn managers who were willing to wait out the shifty running back’s incessant lows. Unfortunately, those lows appear to be much more of a trend for the 2023 season and his get-right game in Week 11 looks like a glaring outlier. Pollard has just one top-five finish this season, zero top-10 finishes and only three RB1 finishes in 10 games. He has tallied more than 75 rushing yards in just one outing, which came back in Week 3 against the sieve of a defense housed by the Cardinals. Pollard has posted five games with at least five targets but also has five games with three or fewer and two games with zero targets. His usage is an ever-wavering punchline of inconsistency and his once-heralded per-touch profile has dissipated into that of a touchdown-reliant risk. Managers are undoubtedly basking in the celebration of Pollard’s most recent outing where he finished with 12 carries, 61 yards (5.08 YPC), and one touchdown with four receptions for 19 yards. Once again, his menial ceiling yielded a modest RB12 overall finish on the week and was attached to the volatile and unpredictable necessity of his touchdown run. There is a perceivable avenue in which managers can take advantage of Pollard’s one-game breakout with an earth-shattering trade before the league deadline. 

Deandre Hopkins (WR) - Tennessee Titans

DeAndre Hopkins made a good day out of a bad situation with four receptions on a team-high five targets (29.4% Target Share) with 59 yards and one touchdown. The Titans' passing offense has regressed to their usual low-volume norms after looking like a rejuvenated unit following Will Levis’s rookie debut. Levis has yet to reach the heights of his inaugural NFL performance – this time falling short to the Jaguars in Week 11. The rookie quarterback attempted just 17 passes, completing 13 for 158 yards and two touchdowns. Since his record-setting start in Week 8, Levis is averaging a meager 205.3 passing yards, regressing from 262 yards in Week 9, to 199 yards in Week 10 and 158 yards in Week 12. In the past three games, Levis is averaging just 18.0 completions on 21.6 passing attempts and a touchdown to interception ratio of 2TD:2INT. Hopkins has long been a quarterback-proof option but even an All-Pro talent like our veteran superstar is tethered to the overall success of his respective offense. Gifting managers with enough ammunition to pivot to a more substantial asset may be the greatest and last gift that Hopkins ever provides for his fantasy managers.

Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.

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By Matt Ward