Dynasty Market Report: Week 12

Managing a Dynasty roster is about building long-lasting success in the chaotic and unpredictable landscape of fantasy football. The idea should be to give yourself as many assets/bargaining chips as possible so that when you move all in, the deck is stacked in your favor. “We are card counters at the blackjack table, and we’re going to turn the odds at the casino.” Today, we look at some intriguing assets in Dynasty, drawing unbiased values from Sleeper ADP, Dynasty League Football, and KeepTradeCut in an attempt to exploit certain market discrepancies. As always, we will be viewing these players and values through a Superflex lens.

WEEK 12 DYNASTY MARKET REPORT

Notable Market Risers

Tank Dell (WR) - Houston Texans

• There have only been five rookie wide receivers to record more than 16.0 PPG in their first season: Ja’Marr Chase, Odell Beckham Jr. Justin Jefferson, Mike Evans, and Michael Thomas. If his current averages hold up for the remainder of the season, Texans rookie wideout Tank Dell would become the sixth. Dell is destroying his pre-draft doubters with a historic rookie season that has yielded 42 receptions, 659 yards, and six touchdowns through nine games played.

Sam Howell (QB) - Washington Commanders

• Sam Howell and the Commanders continue to pass at a frenetic pace despite disparaging results in the win-loss column. Howell has recorded at least 40 pass attempts in seven of his last eight games. The high-volume passing attack coupled with Howell’s ability to rack up chunk gains on the ground has turned the second-year signal-caller into a bonafide top-12 positional asset in terms of points scored. Howell still ranks just below the QB1 tier on the Dynasty market but is rapidly climbing the ranks with no signs of slowing down as he continues to produce above expectations.

Javonte Williams (RB) - Denver Broncos

• Javonte Williams is growing into his role as the team’s workhorse running back now that he is healthy enough to shoulder the load. Williams received 11 rushing attempts (84.6% Rush Share) in Week 11, garnering 37 yards (3.4 YPC) while catching two of two targets (5.7% Target Share) for 16 yards. He has now recorded at least 80.0% of the rushing attempts and 65.0% of the offensive snaps in three consecutive contests. Williams has snuck his way back into the RB1 tier as the RB12/63rd player overall on consensus Dynasty calculators.

Rachaad White (RB) - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Rachaad White’s uber-elite receiving profile has been on full display in the past five games. He has commanded six or more targets in four of his last five contests with at least four receptions in each. White is the only running back in the NFL to have more than 40 targets while also recording zero drops this season. His lack of rushing upside has been supplemented by a three-game touchdown streak and a high-propensity for PPR scoring. White currently ranks as the RB15/73rd player overall but could easily sneak into the RB1 tier before the end of the season if he continues this hot streak.

Brian Robinson (RB) - Washington Commanders

• Brian Robinson is propelling himself into a league-winning asset with an incredible pass-catching resume over the last two contests. In Week 11, Robinson saw a team-high nine targets (20.0% Target Share), catching seven passes for 58 yards after leading the team in all receiving categories with a career-best outing the week prior (6 Receptions/6 Targets/119 Receiving Yards/1 Touchdown). Robinson also led the team with 17 rush attempts (68.0% Rush Share), gaining 73 yards on his carries (4.3 YPC) with a 78.0% snap share (63 Snaps). On the season, Robinson leads all Commanders running backs in rush attempts (138), rushing yards (558), rushing touchdowns (5), yards per carry (4.0), receiving yards (314), and receiving touchdowns (3). Robinson trails Antonio Gibson by three receptions and two targets – a trend that is vastly dissipating in the latter stages of the season.

Notable Market Fallers

Bryce Young (QB) - Carolina Panthers

• Bryce Young’s value insulation as a first-round quarterback has kept him within the top-15 assets at the position but managers are growing increasingly impatient with the rookie quarterback's development. The rapid ascent of C.J. Stroud has done nothing to help Young’s current market evaluation as the Panthers signal caller will likely continue to bleed value until he shows some signs of league-altering production.

Cooper Kupp (WR) - Los Angeles Rams

• Regressing health on a regressing offense with an aging signal-caller has drastically affected the market disposition toward Cooper Kupp. Kupp’s ankle injury in Week 11 has done him no favors as managers are discounting the former triple-crown winner as nothing more than a risk-laden veteran asset.

George Pickens (WR) - Pittsburgh Steelers

• The return of Diontae Johnson and his monstrous target-hogging ways has rightfully left managers to question the utility of George Pickens as a Dynasty asset. The second-year wideout still possesses plenty of promise and a much-needed firing of Matt Canada as offensive coordinator could be exactly what the doctor ordered when it comes to getting Pickens a healthy share of targets. For now, the Dynasty market has decided that a discount is in order as the risk becomes increasingly more apparent.

Deshaun Watson (QB) - Cleveland Browns

• Deshaun Watson had been steadily declining in value amidst some horrendously inefficient outings for the Browns quarterback. A season-ending shoulder injury has caused the foundation that built up Watson’s value to lose all insulation. The avenue to top-5 production for Watson is shrouded by uncertainty and glaring samples of poor production.

Christian Watson (WR) - Green Bay Packers

• While Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Luke Musgrave, and even Dontayvion Wicks excel as pass-catchers, Christian Watson appears to be the odd man out after proving himself as one of the league’s best big-play threats in 2022. Watson has regressed mightily in his second season while losing valuable targets to the aforementioned options, all of which have outperformed their budding teammate.

Dynasty Waiver Adds

Isaiah Likely (TE) - Baltimore Ravens

• Isaiah Likely is criminally under-rostered in Dynasty leagues as a young tight end with massive potential. Likely will be propelled into a starting role sans Mark Andrews and could provide legitimate league-winning upside from the tight end position.

Joe Flacco (QB) - Cleveland Browns

• Former Super Bowl champion Joe Flacco has signed with the Cleveland Browns. Flacco has yet to be named the starter but will likely get to test his mettle at some point this season.

Tommy DeVito (QB) - New York Giants

• With Daniel Jones (Knee) and Tyrod Taylor (Ribs) both on injured reserve, the Giants have no other contingency in place other than to roll out Tommy DeVito as their starting quarterback. DeVito should be rostered in 100.0% of Superflex leagues, simply for his starting status.

Jake Browning (QB) - Cincinnati Bengals

• Jake Browning has been forced into a starting role after Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending wrist injury in Week 11. Browning is likely a non-factor in your lineups but must be rostered for an unlikely breakout.

Tim Boyle (QB) - New York Jets

• Tim Boyle will be the starting quarterback of the Jets from here on out after the team elected to bench Zach Wilson. Trevor Simien will serve as Boyle’s backup and is worth a speculative add as well.

Justin Watson (WR) - Kansas City Chiefs

• Justin Watson unsuspectingly led the Chiefs with 11 targets in Week 11, catching five for 53 yards and one touchdown as the team’s most productive wideout and WR16 overall on the week. 

Jameis Winston (QB) - New Orleans Saints

• We have yet to see the last of Jameis Winston’s career as an NFL starter. The Saints backup may have more opportunities to test his mettle as Derek Carr (Concussion/AC-Joint Sprain) is banged up with injuries.

Buy Low

Jayden Reed (WR) - Green Bay Packers 

• Jayden Reed accounted for 45.1% of the Packers rushing production (46 Yards) and 15.5% of the team’s receiving production (46 Yards) in Week 1. The rookie wideout continues to develop into an intriguing big-play threat with increased upside to earn targets at all levels of the field. Reed is quietly surpassing both Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson as the team’s top wideout and should continue his progression throughout the second half of the season.

Sell High

Devin Singletary (RB) - Houston Texans

• Devin Singletary is riding high on the waves of two consecutive RB1 outings that saw the veteran running back thrive in his increased role sans Dameon Pierce. Singletary may very well be the most effective and efficient running back on the Texans roster but the inevitable return of Pierce will greatly cap Singletary’s opportunity share which is increasingly reliant on rushing production as he rarely earns targets. It’s time for managers to cash out on even the most menial of gains before Pierce re-enters the lineup.

Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.

The Fantasy Football by Broto app is now live on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store! Download it today for a start sit tool, player cards, statistics, usage, rankings, interactive tools, coaching tendencies, and much, much more. FREE for a limited time.

Check out patreon.com/Brotofantasy to access extra episodes, join our community, win prizes, and help keep the app free.

By Matt Ward