SLEEPERS
QB: Brock Purdy - San Fransisco 49ers
After a couple of rough outings against the Browns and Vikings, Brock Purdy is back to doing Brock Purdy things. In his last two games, he has back-to-back QB1 weekly finishes for the second time this season. Purdy has been a prime sleeper candidate all year long. Despite being the QB12 in PPG with 18.5, he’s still being started on only 30% of teams who roster him on Sleeper. Purdy has been a very reliable option for managers who took the chance on him. Through nine games the 49ers quarterback boasts five weekly QB1 finishes and has only finished outside of the top 24 on one occasion. He has established himself as a bonafide set-it-and-forget-it fantasy option. Purdy has thrown for 250+ yards in six of his nine games and has been finding the endzone, producing 2+ touchdowns in five games. The interception streak is behind him and all signs point towards another QB1 performance as the 49ers are set to face the Buccaneers' weak pass defense. The Buccaneers have been bleeding fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks all season long. They’re currently 10th in True Matchup Rank for the position and Purdy is primed to take advantage of a weak matchup. Baker Mayfield and crew should be able to keep things interesting, which will force the 49ers passing attack to be utilized in full force. Look for Purdy to feed his playmakers and for the fantasy points to flood in.
Boyd Armstrong
RB: Devin Singletary - Houston Texans
Devin Singletary should be on everyone’s radar as a must-start asset in Week 11. Instead, the shifty veteran is being vastly overlooked as a potential week-winning asset. In Week 10 Singletary exploded for 150 yards on 20 attempts (5.0 YPC) with one touchdown against a sturdy Bengals defense during an emphatic comeback win. Dameon Pierce (ankle) was noticeably absent in that contest and remains on the injury report heading into the team’s next matchup. The Texans (5-4) host the Cardinals (5-4) in a rare cross-conference matchup between the two franchises with a week-leading projected Over/Under scoring total of 47.5 that favors the hometeam Texans by 6.0 points. Even if Pierce can return to the lineup, he will likely be limited, leaving Singletary to take the reins against a sensational defensive matchup. The Cardinals rank 5th in Broto Fantasy’s True Matchup Rank, allowing 24.6 PPG with a Points Over average of 31.0%. They concede 8.1 PPG of receiving production to opposing running backs (5th/39.0% Points Over Average) and a whopping 16.5 PPG of rushing production (8th/24.0% Points Over Average) to rival backfields. As a whole, the Cardinals defensive unit allows 134.2 rushing yards (28th), 262.9 scrimmage yards (22nd), and 26.3 points per game (28th) to opposing offenses on average. Singletary should once again see the bulk of backfield touches for the Texans and has already posted respectable averages against much better defenses this season.
Matt Ward
WR: Rashee Rice - Kansas City Chiefs
Week 11 will grace fans with a rematch of Super Bowl LVII as the Chiefs (7-2) host the Eagles (8-1) on Monday Night Football. Each team represents the best of their respective conferences through the first ten weeks of the 2023 season and represents the second-highest projected Over/Under total of the Week 11 slate (46.5 Points). The Eagles defense has found an identity this season as the NFL’s best-rushing defense, allowing just 66.3 yards per game. Unfortunately, their stout defensive rushing averages have come at the cost of a Swiss-cheese secondary that gives up 257.0 passing yards (28th) and 21.7 points per game (18th). Conversely, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs possess one of the best pure passing offenses in the NFL, averaging 264.9 passing yards and 23.1 points per game despite operating without a true number-one wideout outside of Travis Kelce. In steps Rashee Rice. The Chiefs rookie has been flying under the radar despite continued linear progression in his rookie development. Rice currently leads all Chiefs wide receivers in receptions (32), yards (378), and touchdowns, tying Kelce with a team-high four scores this season. The former SMU-produce has really come into his own as the top outside threat in the passing game while Kelce feasts over the middle and on short-yardage targets. Rice has lapped his fellow teammates in all receiving categories from the wide receiver position and now gets the opportunity to flex his growing talents against a susceptible Eagles secondary. We touched on the scintillating raw averages allowed by the Eagles but they also concede a league-leading 42.1 fantasy points per game to opposing receivers and rank 2nd overall in True Matchup Rank with a Points Over Average of 54.0%. Rice has been consistently climbing the ladder into the must-start territory – a theme that has grown increasingly true in Week 11 considering the opponent in question.
Matt Ward
TE: Trey McBride - Arizona Cardinals
Trey McBride is a tight on the rise but he’s not being appreciated nearly enough for his continued upside. Over the past five games, McBride has amassed 39 targets and hasn’t seen fewer than five targets in any game. In his first game with Kyler Murray this year, the sophomore stud caught all eight targets for a career-high 131 yards. The Texans boast one of the best offenses in the league and should give a struggling Cardinals defense a lot of trouble while keeping them throwing. The Cardinals have no issue feeding their tight ends as Murray has made the position a go-to target throughout his career. As it stands, Zach Ertz and Trey McBride are 2nd and 3rd on the team in targets, and Ertz only played 7 games before being placed on IR. The players have a combined 11 red zone targets, accounting for over a third of total team red zone opportunities through the air. People are aware of the talent and production but he’s still only rostered in 74% of Yahoo leagues. With one of the best matchups out there, a booming sophomore season, and the return of Kyler Murray, there are only a handful of superstar tight ends you should even be considering as starting options over McBride this week.
Themi Michalakis
BUSTS
QB: Matthew Stafford - Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford has been a very mediocre fantasy player this season. With an average of 14.8, he’s currently the QB22 in Points Per Game. To put the mediocrity on full display, Stafford has eight QB2 weekly finishes in nine games. The only time he missed out on the top 24 was the game he got hurt against Dallas and was forced to leave the field early. That’s right, Matty Mid still has yet to crack a QB1 weekly finish in 2023 despite the incredible wide receiver performances he has upheld. That streak could continue for another week against a respectable Seahawks secondary. The Seahawks rank 9th in True Matchup Rank for opposing quarterbacks, which should be a green flag for a quality performance but with how Stafford has produced so far, it’s hard to feel any sort of confidence in him. He hasn’t passed for more than 250+ yards since week four and only has one game this season with 2+ touchdowns. His best fantasy performance this year so far has been 17 points against the Colts, which was good for QB15 on the week. Hard to get excited about that ceiling. Throw the thumb injury into the equation and the result is a quarterback that should be kept far away from lineups. The high upside of years past doesn’t seem to be there anymore but the floor is still decent QB2 level numbers. The bar should be set higher than that and someone with more upside should be locked into the starting QB slot in your lineups.
Boyd Armstrong
RB: Isiah Pacheco - Kansas City Chiefs
Although the Chiefs pass-catchers are in an excellent position to exceed their Week 11 projections, Isiah Pacheco is certainly not. For every issue the Eagles have had in their secondary, they have supplemented with the most fearsome rush defense in the NFL today. They allow a menial 66.3 (1st) rushing yards per game while conceding just 12.8 PPG to opposing running backs. The Eagles rank 31st in True Matchup Rank to running backs with a Points Over Average of negative (-32.0%). Despite their lack of coverage against wideouts, the Eagles have been incredibly efficient at stemming the production of rival backfields, both through the air and on the ground. Of the 12.8 PPG allowed to running backs, the Eagles are giving up a lowly 5.6 points of receiving production (25th/-21.0% Points Over Average) and 7.2 points of rushing production (30th/35.0% Points Over Average). Pacheco is in a prime position to disappoint in Week 11 and should be downgraded below his current mid-range RB2 status.
Matt Ward
WR: Gabriel Davis - Buffalo Bills
The Bills franchise is stuck in a pit of mediocrity and dysfunction, firing their offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey after a stunning loss to the Broncos in Week 10. A major philosophical change in offensive play-calling and philosophy feels like the wrong choice for a team that ranked in the top five in every perceivable offensive analytic but after falling to 5-5 the organization felt as if they had no other options but then to make a significant change in the staff. Heading into Week 11, the team is treading unknown waters against one of the NFL’s most fearsome secondary units. The Bills (5-5) play host to the Jets (4-5) in a matchup between two AFC East rivals – a rematch of the game in which the Jets topped the Bills in overtime during Week 1. The Jets' defense poses massive problems for an offensive opponent struggling with consistency, turnovers, and the loss of their main play-caller. The Jets are allowing a mere 169.3 passing yards (2nd) and 19.1 points (7th) per game. They rank first in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (16.7 PPG) and 32nd overall in Broto Fantasy’s True Matchup Rank with a terrifying Points Over Average rating of negative (-)47.0%. Conversely, the Jets allow 138.4 (31st) rushing yards per game, suggesting the running game is the Bills' best option for beating their divisional foes. Gabriel Davis is staring down the pipeline of a near-insurmountable coverage assignment against a top-tier defense while the play-caller who once favored him in the first place watches from his couch at home. Expect regression from the Bills pass-catchers this week.
Matt Ward
TE: Pat Freiermuth - Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers will be ecstatic for their TE1 to return. Connor Heyward and Darnell Washington have filled in for him and while Heyward has drawn decent target numbers, Washington has mainly operated as a blocker in his rookie year. Pat Freiermuth is the only guy you want to roster and start at the position on this team but even if he’s fully healthy I’m not starting him just yet. Although he only played in four games (and played in at least 51% of snaps in each of them) he hasn’t seen more than four targets in any contest this season. In a 26-22 win over the Browns, he only had one target. To his credit, he’s still one of the few reliable red zone targets and could grab a touchdown at a moment's notice but the Browns are amongst the toughest defenses in the NFL. Aside from having the top-rated defense in the league, they’re by far the hardest matchup for tight ends in True Matchup Rank. They also allow the lowest DVOA to tight ends, only slightly ahead of the Steelers themselves. The Steelers may be forced to pass more in this one but Freiermuth is a tough start in the face of the worst possible matchup upon his first game back.
Themi Michalakis
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For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.