Clay's Corner: Week 11 DFS Plays

Week 10 was a solid week. Let’s take a quick look back.  

QB: Joe Burrow- 31.36, Dak Prescott- 16.7

RB: Joe Mixon- 12.5

WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown- 32.1, Tank Dell- 20.6, Christian Kirk- 16.6, Ceedee Lamb- 16.9

TE: Trey McBride- 20.6

D/ST: PIT D/ST- 8

My best GPP lineup didn’t cash but here was the lineup:

QB: Dak Prescott- 41.86

RB: Aaron Jones- 9.4

RB: Jaylen Warren- 22

WR: Drake London- 6.6

WR: Tank Dell- 18.9

WR: Jahan Dotson- 0

TE: Jonnu Smith- 1.1

FLEX: CD Lamb- 42.5

D/ST: Jaguars D/ST- 1

For a total of 143.36 points!

Time to identify more winners for Week 11! 

Week 11 DraftKings slate

Games to target:

1. ARI @ HOU - 47.5 O/U

Implied totals: ARI 21.5; HOU 26

2. LV @ MIA - 46.5 O/U

Implied totals: LV 17.5; MIA 29

3. SEA @ LAR - 46 O/U

Implied totals: SEA 23.25; LAR 22.5

4. CHI @ DET - 46.5 O/U

Implied totals: CHI 18.5; DET 28

Top Cash Plays: 

Quarterbacks

I am paying down again at QB in cash this week. 

Brock Purdy ($5,800)

Purdy seems to be back after a rough stretch that included road games at Cleveland and Minnesota. Purdy has had 23+ fantasy points in back-to-back games and is now #1 in True Throw Value (TTV). Helping Purdy with his consistency has been his rank of 8th in completion percentage at 68.8%, 9th in passing TDs, and 2nd in deep completion percentage. The Bucs, Purdy’s Week 11 opponent, rank as the 10th best matchup for QBs (Broto’s True Matchup Rank available for free on the Fantasy by Broto app). Start Purdy in cash and enjoy the savings. 

Kyler Murray ($6,100)

Murray scored 18.26 points his first week back, tripling his DraftKings salary, and that was with just a 59.4 completion percentage, so there’s plenty of room for improvement. We also saw Murray scramble like the old days which means all systems go. Falcons CB AJ Terrell limited WR Marquise Brown last week, however, the Texans’ secondary doesn’t have a CB of that caliber which should drastically increase Kyler’s completion percentage this week. In a shootout with the Texans, trust Kyler to smash the 20-point barrier. 

Other options: Jared Goff ($6,600), C.J Stroud ($7,000)

Stroud is the highest I’m willing to go to this week. I’m fading Dak Prescott this week as the Panthers at home have limited opposing QBs to just 3 passing TDs, 63.2% completion percentage and a QB rating of 77.6. 

Running Back

De’Von Achane ($6,600) 

Finally! Achane returns for Miami this week and he couldn’t ask for a better matchup. The Raiders rank as the 4th best matchup for opposing RBs. Since Achane has been out with injury you may have forgotten, so let me remind you of how dominant he has been:

• 1st in points per opportunity excluding TD (PPOxTD)

• 1st in yards/carry- 12.1

• 1st in rushing yards/gm- 115

• 4th in receiving TDS (2)

• 9th in rushing TDs (5)

• 1st in PPR PPG- 25.4

Start Achane, win money. 

Breece Hall ($6,400) 

Hall has struggled in his past 2 games, only scoring 10 points in each. However, the Bills have struggled as well. Denver RB Javonte Williams cooked the Bills defense for 110 combined rushing and receiving yards and 1 TD. Although, we must remember, Williams is splitting work with Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin. On Tuesday, the Jets cut RB Micheal Carter, meaning more work for Breece. Look for Breece to punish the struggling Bills defense in Week 11. 

Wide Receiver 

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,800)

The Bears defense has been limiting RB production so much so that they rank as the 19th best matchup for opposing RBs via rushing. With that in mind, Amon-Ra St. Brown will be the counterpunch used to breakthrough the Bear’s defense. St. Brown ranks 14th in weighted opportunity (WOPR) and has 4 consecutive games over 100 yards receiving. The Sun God will shine bright in the motor city in Week 11. 

Nathaniel “Tank” Dell ($5,900) 

Dell has been unstoppable lately. He’s had 25 targets over his last two games which includes 3 TDs and one 100+ yard receiving effort. WR Nico Collins was limited at practice on Wednesday and is likely to return, however, I still trust Dell to get the job done. Receivers like Dell don’t just “fall into” 25 targets, targets are earned and that means rookie QB sensation CJ Stroud is actively looking for Dell. Dell also gets a great matchup against the Cardinals in Week 11, who rank as the 7th best matchup for opposing WRs. Expect Dell to wreck the Cardinals secondary like a runaway tank. 

Garrett Wilson ($6,400)

I was thinking about saving Wilson for the GPP portion of this article, but Wilson can be used in cash or GPPs. Wilson has earned 10+ targets in 5 of his last 6 games. Unfortunately, the passes are coming from QB Zach Wilson but volume is volume and Garrett Wilson’s workload is tough to match. Wilson ranks 2nd in weighted opportunity (WOPR) and 3rd in both target share and air yards share. With the Bills defense slipping lately, they rank as the 15th best matchup for opposing WRs. 

Other options: Deebo Samuel ($6,300), Mike Evans ($7,400)

Tight End

Trey McBride ($4,400)

McBride burst back onto the fantasy scene with QB Kyler Murray returning in Week 10. He caught 8 of 9 targets for 131 receiving yards. Along with getting QB Kyler Murray back, McBride faces a Texans defense that ranks as the 5th best matchup for opposing TEs. McBride should be easy money in cash this week. 

Dalton Kincaid ($4,900)

Kincaid has been doing what the Bills hoped he would after drafting him with the 25th overall pick in the NFL Draft. He’s produced 10+ fantasy points in his last four games. Kincaid is 6th in receptions, 6th in points per opportunity excluding TDs (PPOxTD), and 16th in target share. The peripheral numbers support Kincaid continuing his success, especially against the Jets, who rank as the 11th best matchup for opposing TEs. 

D/ST

New York Jets ($2,600) 

The Jets defense gives Josh Allen hell. In 10 career games against the Jets, Josh Allen averages 1 INT/gm, 2.4 sacks/gm, 227.7 passing yards/gm and 1 fumble/gm. The Jets are a great, cost-efficient option in Week 11. 

Favorite stacks:

1. CJ Stroud + Tank Dell and/or Dalton Schultz with Marquise Brown/James Conner/Trey McBride bring back. I also like the Cardinals side if you want to do Kyler Murray + Marquise Brown + Trey McBride with Tank Dell/Noah Brown bring back.  

2. Tua Tagovailoa + Tyreek Hill + De’Von Achane with Davante Adams/Josh Jacobs bring back.  

3. Jared Goff + Amon-Ra St. Brown + Sam LaPorta/Jahmyr Gibbs with no bring back.  

4. Brock Purdy + Deebo Samuel + George Kittle with Mike Evans bring back. Both the Bucs and 49ers struggle on the outside which should lead to a shootout. 

GPP Plays:

Quarterbacks

I am sticking with my cash options at QB for GPPs this week.  

Running Back

Raheem Mostert ($6,900), De’Von Achane ($6,600)

Nothing strenuous here, the Miami backfield has been crushing especially against bad teams. The Raiders qualify as a bad team and are currently the 4th best matchup for opposing RBs. You can play one or both in a GPP lineup this week. 

Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,000)

Gibbs has continued to increase his workload in the Detroit offense. He had a slight rushing share edge over fellow RB David Montgomery in Week 10, 53.8% vs 46.2%. However, Gibbs truly shined in the passing game, earning a 15.2% target share. In Week 11, Gibbs will face the #1 mnatchup for opposing receiving RBs in the Bears. Gibbs is primed to break the slate in Week 11. 

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill ($9,300)

Hill had a down game against the Chiefs in Germany. He gets a great rebound spot against an inferior Raiders defense.

Brandon Aiyuk ($7,100)/Deebo Samuel ($6,200) 

The Bucs secondary has been getting clobbered lately. In fact, The Bucs now rank as the 6th best matchup for opposing WRs. I expect the 49ers to take the path of least resistance and pummel the Bucs’ secondary.

Other options: Cooper Kupp ($8,100), DeAndre Hopkins ($6,100), Marquise Brown ($5,300).

I am comfortable using my cash TEs recommendations for GPPs, however, I’ll give you another option for this week. 

TE Tyler Conklin ($5,100)

Conklin has been playing well with QB Zach Wilson under center. He’s had 12+ fantasy points in his last two games and has 13 targets over that same timeframe. Conklin ranks 3rd points per opportunity excluding TDs (PPOxTD) among all TEs. Conklin makes for a nice GPP play with his combination of salary and production. 

D/ST

Miami Dolphins ($3,200)

The Dolphins rank 3rd in pressure rate, which I expect will force rookie QB Aidan O’Connell into several mistakes. O’Connell in four games has 3 INTs and 4 fumbles. Miami is also a home favorite making this selection more palatable at cost. 

Lone Ranger (sub $5,000 player that can score over 10 fantasy points)

Jaxson Smith Njigba finished with 9.3 points last week. So close yet so far. Time to try again in Week 11 with a 10-10 record. 

WR Quentin Johnston ($4,200)

At this moment, Johnston is one of the few healthy pieces remaining for the Chargers. Things haven’t quite gone the way Johnston would have imagined but Week 11 brings another opportunity for him to learn and gain more trust in this pass-heavy offense. 

Have a great Week 11 of DFS! Win big and be kind to each other!

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By Clayton Jones aka @FF_Pulse_88