Welcome to the Rookie Report series. This will be a recurring series that highlights fantasy-relevant rookies, how they performed in the prior weeks, and what that means for the future. Let’s dive in!
Rookie of the Week:
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) - Detroit Lions
David Montgomery’s return was a welcome sight for Lions fans and he took care of business on the ground. His overall numbers were elevated thanks to a 75-yard touchdown scamper but you can’t fault a guy for making a great play. What most fantasy managers - and even Lions fans - were more interested in was how Gibbs would fit in after a spectacular few games as the RB1 on the team. It’s just one game but Gibbs led the team in rushing attempts and finished the game with 112 total yards and two touchdowns, including one on a goal-line carry. The Lions have an ideal schedule for rushing production in the next few weeks. We should continue to see plenty of Gibbs and we know he can be an RB1 with Montgomery there.
Rookie Standouts:
Jayden Reed (WR) - Green Bay Packers
Jayden Reed cashed in on 100.0% of his opportunities in Week 10, catching all five of his targets (12.5% Target Share) for a team-high in receptions and receiving yards (84). Reed also hauled in his fourth touchdown of the 2023 season. The Packers wide receiver room is surprisingly talented, albeit young and inexperienced. Reed is beginning to establish himself as more than a flash-in-the-pan prospect with several high-upside performances this season.
Top Rookie Performances:
QB C.J. Stroud: 20.0 Points - QB9
RB Jahmyr Gibbs: 24.7 Points - RB1
RB Bijan Robinson: 17.1 Points - RB10
RB Keaton Mitchell: 13.1 Points - RB19
WR Jayden Reed: 16.9 Points - WR10
WR Tank Dell: 15.7 Points - WR11
WR Quentin Johnston: 11.4 Points - WR25
WR Demario Douglas: 11.4 Points - WR25
TE Dalton Kincaid: 13.6 Points - TE4
TE Michael Mayer: 9.4 Points - TE7
TE Luke Musgrave: 7.4 Points - TE11
Disappointment of the Week:
Will Levis (QB) - Tennessee Titans
Once upon a time, Will Levis threw four touchdowns in a thrilling rookie debut. Oh how far ago that feels. You have to cut the guy some slack, he went from torching a susceptible Falcons secondary to playing against two of the best defenses in the league. Still, zero touchdowns coupled with two interceptions in his last two starts puts a damper on the early victory parade. Levis has thrown 39 passes in each of the past two weeks and his yardage isn’t that bad for a run-first team that couldn’t move the ball effectively. However, a lack of rushing and taking multiple sacks each week is going to severely hinder his fantasy appeal. Levis could still be the future of the Titans but in terms of sniffing your fantasy lineup, there are more “boring” options that can consistently give you high-end QB2 finishes.
Remedial Rookie Performances:
QB Aidan O’Connell: 9.4 Points - QB21
QB Bryce Young: 9.2 Points - QB22
QB Tyson Bagent: 7.7 Points - QB25
QB Will Levis: 7.0 Points - QB26
RB Roschon Johnson: 5.2 Points - RB40
RB Tank Bigsby: 0.5 Points - RB64
WR Jordan Addison: 8.9 Points - WR33
WR Jonathan Mingo: 3.5 Points - WR62
Heating Up:
Keaton Mitchell (RB) - Baltimore Ravens
We have to be realistic about our expectations for Keaton Mitchell. He’s an undrafted rookie who only has 15 touches in four games. We can also be excited to watch him. Baltimore is an ideal spot for a running back to explode and he seems to be passing Justice Hill on the depth chart. It would be foolish to think that his touchdown rate can be sustained but he’s one of the few truly high-risk, high-reward players out there. He also won’t be facing the Cleveland Browns every week. Baltimore still gets to face some tough teams this season but they have an equal amount of juicy matchups. Mitchell is going to let you down in fantasy sometimes but that’s the risk you take with a backup running back who can often explode with minimal touches. He obviously presents much more appeal as leagues get deeper and injuries mount.
Demario Douglas (WR) - New England Patriots
Kendrick Bourne is out for the season and DeVante Parker missed the team’s game in Frankfurt. Demario Douglas took over and - despite a low-scoring affair with poor quarterback play from the Patriots - he had his best game of the season. His nine targets led the team and he set career-highs in receptions and yards. “Pop” has yet to score his first career touchdown and it may take a while with this offense, but they face an injured and weak Giants team after the bye. He becomes a sneaky waiver stash if your league hasn’t wised up to his talent already. Whether it’s Bailey Zappe or Mac Jones at QB, you should have confidence that Douglas can thrive as the team’s WR1.
Names to Watch:
A.T. Perry (WR) - New Orleans Saints
Michael Thomas could be out for a while with what HC Dennis Allen called a significant injury. Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed should continue to serve as the top two WRs but A.T. Perry has emerged as an interesting option. Perry hadn’t played more than 25% of snaps in either of his previous two games but played 84% on Sunday. He finally saw his first targets and caught two of four for 38 yards and a touchdown. The Saints will be on bye this week and may play Jameis Winston at quarterback if Derek Carr’s injuries sideline him but either player can throw some deep balls. There’s a chance that Keith Kirkwood or Lynn Bowden Jr. take Thomas’ role instead but Perry is worth keeping an eye on.
Trending Down:
RB Jaleel McLaughlin
Game-script has obviously played a part, but Javonte Williams has 48 carries over the past two games. All other Broncos running backs have combined for 12. Samaje Perine is used as a receiving back and pass blocker while McLaughlin has carved out a small rushing role. He initially gained hype after scoring in consecutive games while adding some great rushing efficiency. He still gets a handful of touches per game and - more importantly - about two targets a game but hasn’t scored since the beginning of October. Whether it’s sheer randomness or an indication that he’s almost fully healthy now, Javonte Williams has dominated red zone work in that backfield over the past two contests. McLaughlin should continue to see a few rushes a game and find a half-decent floor with a few receptions but he’s just not the waiver target people were hoping for. This backfield doesn’t look very split.
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by Themi Michalakis and Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.