Broto Bets went 3-3 and lost 0.69 units last week. I may be avoiding big losses but I'd like to get back into the green.
2023 Total: 26-22-1, -0.445u
Teasers:
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-7) O/U: 39.5
Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5) @ Cleveland Browns O/U: 33
Themi’s Teaser: Jaguars -1, Steelers +7.5
The Jaguars and 49ers were both coming off a bye and I’m sure most people expected a decently close game in Week 10. Unfortunately, it was one of the biggest blowouts in team history. Trevor Lawrence has not been having the season that he should, nor has Calvin Ridley lived up to his stellar Week 1 performance more than a couple of times. Despite this, the Jaguars still rank as one of the best teams in the league. Their defense is 5th in DVOA and they’re 3rd against the run. They’re nearly as good against the pass despite getting obliterated by Brock Purdy in their last outing. It’s hard to beat a Kyle Shanahan offense at nearly full health and we can’t fault the Jaguars for having a difficult time containing them. What is obvious, however, is that the Jaguars offense is currently failing them. Their divisional lead is dwindling as C.J. Stroud and the Texans heat up. Fortunately, the Jaguars have a massive get-right game against the rival Titans in Week 11. The Titans have one of the most exploitable secondaries in the league, juxtaposed by a tough run defense. Their offense has not been especially explosive and naturally runs through Derrick Henry, limiting their ability to play from behind. With the Jaguars housing one of the best-run defenses, I don’t fancy the Titans’ chances of success. Will Levis has struggled against good defenses after torching the Falcons in his first game. The Jaguars haven’t managed to generate a lot of pressure but they’re talented enough to stifle the young signal caller.
Whether or not you like their brand of football and impossibly timed backup QB matchups, the Steelers win games and keep them dangerously close. There's a chance that this team is going to face both Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Jake Browning in consecutive weeks. It doesn't make the Browns or Bengals a free win - nor does it guarantee a close loss - but it makes things a lot easier. The Steelers offense is surprisingly 16th in DVOA and their defense is 7th. Cleveland boasts the best defense in the league but a bottom-5 offense that may only look worse with a rookie QB. Thompson-Robinson was a pre-season standout but his first and only start was against an elite Ravens defense that forced three interceptions. The Steelers are banged up badly right now and Minkah Fitzpatrick is trending towards missing the contest. Along with plenty of injuries at LB, we could see the rookie signal caller pick this team apart. There are still playmakers and the pass rush is excellent but it'll still be hard to trust Pittsburgh to win this one in enemy territory. The Browns QB situation doesn't inspire much hope but he should have an easier going this time around. Pittsburgh should be good enough to keep this within a TD though.
Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) @ Denver Broncos O/U: 42
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (-7.5) O/U: 48
Themi’s Teaser: Vikings +8.5, Lions -1.5
The Broncos took advantage of a stumbling Bills team in Week 11. Whether it was their defensive injuries or turnovers, the Bills have had their fair share of issues. Josh Allen can look as elite as anyone, score in a matter of a few plays, and then immediately fail to generate any offense on the next drive. That led to the firing of OC Ken Dorsey but let's not pretend like the Broncos are awful everywhere. Their offense has dropped a bit but they’re still average at worst. Their defense has improved tremendously but is still wildly susceptible. Joshua Dobbs has done an excellent job with this Vikings offense, and the team just refuses to quit. Unlike the Bills, the Vikings' defense has been excellent in recent weeks - and overall this year. Jordan Addison has had a booming rookie season and has produced in Justin Jefferson's absence. T.J. Hockenson leads the team in targets and Brandon Powell has emerged as a solid 3rd/4th option alongside K.J. Osborn. The Broncos are a hot team and they’re difficult to beat at home but the Vikings have scraped several wins together despite big injuries and a severe lack of a run game. I don’t trust Denver to win this game by more than a TD.
Justin Fields will be returning but the Bears are still the Bears. One of the least successful offenses will be happy to get their QB back but they seldom performed against a quality defense. Their domination over Washington feels like eons ago and while the Lions can be exploited at times, they’ve shown that they can push around these bottom-feeder teams. There’s some talent on the other side of the ball for the Bears but Jaylon Johnson alone can’t fix a bottom-5 defense. I don’t need to convince you that Jared Goff is one of the best QBs in the league and this offense is just clicking. The Lions are a great teaser leg this week.
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (-7) O/U: 39.5
New York Giants @ Washington Commanders (-8.5) O/U: 38
Themi's Teaser: Bills -1, Commanders -2.5
Trusting the Bills again seems like a mistake, especially when the Jets beat them in Week 1. Let’s be honest about the situation, though. The Bills still have one of the most explosive offenses in the league and are looking for something resembling a fresh start after firing OC Ken Dorsey. It’s unlikely that they’ll have quite as many turnovers this time around despite Josh Allen historically struggling against the Jets. The offense ranks 3rd in the league and was picking apart The Broncos with ease. The Jets present an incredible challenge but, unlike the Broncos, they just don’t have the offense to compete. The only other defense on their level that the Bills have faced was the Jaguars. The Bills lost a tough “home” game in London against a team that has at least a competent offense to pair around the time they started to lose key defensive players. I don’t expect them to have an easy-going but they can beat the Jets on the ground as they try to regain some footing in this division.
The Giants are in a freefall and injuries are piling up. Their offense hasn't been able to put together a great game since their comeback against the lowly Cardinals, and their top 2 QBs are hurt. At this point, they're focused on the draft. The Comanders have been soft on defense and Tommy Devito could finally have a quality start but his upcoming opponents are quite good against the run and should mitigate the damage that Saquon Barkley can cause. The Giants don't have Darren Waller or a true WR1 and they've relied on their star RB to get things going. They've still got big play potential and the chance to win but it relies on the pass rush destroying Sam Howell again. With Kayvon Thibadaux and others waiting to clear concussion protocol and Leonard Williams traded away, that could prove difficult. Howell has been able to avoid sacks in recent weeks too. This line has moved down enough to tease the Commanders to a win by a field goal at a time when their offense has started to click.
Straight:
Chargers -3
The Packers were getting picked apart by the Steelers of all teams to start their game last week. They started to stifle them but still fell short. Things should look a little better with Jaire Alexander set to return. Jordan Love showed that he could succeed against a bad defense. The Steelers may rank highly in many categories but they were hurt badly. The Chargers aren’t facing serious injuries this week but have been easy to get through. The Packers are allowing the 3rd highest DVOA to opposing WR1s and struggle against the run. The Chargers offense seems to run through Keenan Allen and he hasn’t been stopped for very long. It could finally blow up in their face this week but Justin Herbert is an elite QB who can utilize RB Austin Ekeler or one of many receivers to pick apart the Packers. Defensive issues for both teams make this pretty risky but I trust the Chargers to do what they couldn’t do last week and force some stops to give their impressive offense a win.
Vikings ML (+115)
The teaser section covers this matchup. The Vikings probably won't have the same high-end offensive success that the Bills can reach but they seem to limit mistakes and have an incredible defense to pair. Trust the Vikings to win this one.
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by Themi Michalakis
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.