Dynasty Market Report: Week 11

Managing a Dynasty roster is about building long-lasting success in the chaotic and unpredictable landscape of fantasy football. The idea should be to give yourself as many assets/bargaining chips as possible so that when you move all in, the deck is stacked in your favor. “We are card counters at the blackjack table, and we’re going to turn the odds at the casino.” Today, we look at some intriguing assets in Dynasty, drawing unbiased values from Sleeper ADP, Dynasty League Football, and KeepTradeCut in an attempt to exploit certain market discrepancies. As always, we will be viewing these players and values through a Superflex lens.

WEEK 11 DYNASTY MARKET REPORT

Notable Market Risers

Kyler Murray (QB) - Arizona Cardinals

• K1=QB1. Kyler Murray made an emphatic return to action in Week 10, reminding everyone and their grandmothers as to why he has perennially held value as an elite top-5 positional asset. The market was quick to discount Murray during his injury recovery and was just as quick to propel him back into the QB1 tier after his first start of the 2023 season.

Dalton Kincaid (TE) - Buffalo Bills

• Dalton Kincaid has catapulted up the Dynasty rankings as a league-winning asset for contending teams and a must-have foundational block for rebuilding teams. The Bills star rookie tight end has posted four consecutive top-12 outings with at least 15.5 points in each game. While the Bills fail to stack up wins, Kincaid absolves himself of any responsibility with incredible production from the tight end position. 

Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) - Detroit Lions

• All of the hype surrounding Jahmyr Gibbs as a league-altering Dynasty asset appears warranted. The Lions star running back continues to perform at an elite level, even with the return of David Montgomery, finishing with two touchdowns and another RB1 finish in Week 10. Gibbs has rewritten the Konami Code for running backs and is rightfully valued as a game-breaking player.

Dak Prescott (QB) - Dallas Cowboys

• If you were one of the many savvy managers to capitalize on Dak Prescott’s unmitigated value drop in the previous weeks, congratulations. Prescott has recently risen to his rightful place amidst the top-12 quarterbacks in Dynasty after snapping his cold streak with four consecutive finishes inside of the top three producers at the position. Prescott has finished as the QB1, QB3, QB2, and QB1 in his last four outings, cementing himself once again as a cornerstone asset in Superflex leagues. 

Trey McBride (TE) - Arizona Cardinals

• Trey McBride is quickly establishing himself as a future star in the NFL during his second season. The Cardinals' tight end boasts one of the greatest analytical receiving profiles of any tight end in collegiate football history and has exhibited how he reached those heights over the past few weeks. He has amassed two games over 22.0 PPR Points in his last three contests, including eight receptions for 131 yards in Kyler Murray’s first game back. McBride has firmly positioned himself as a top-10 dynasty tight end with a bright future and a top-tier range of outcomes.

Notable Market Fallers

Tony Pollard (RB) - Dallas Cowboys

• Managers are growing increasingly impatient with Tony Pollard as a Dynasty asset – rightfully so. Pollard has produced just one RB1 finish since Week 2, wherein he finished barely above the tier line with 17.0 points and an RB11 outing in Week 6. The shifty veteran is averaging a menial 10.9 PPG and will be 27 years old before the end of the season. The Dynasty market is afraid of “holding the bag” on Pollard wherein his return value on the trade block bottoms out to zero and his production exists in a replacement-level tier of mediocrity. 

Calvin Ridley (WR) - Jacksonville Jaguars

• Calvin Ridley has been nothing shy of a wasted investment for Dynasty managers in 2023 as Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and Travis Etienne continue to produce serviceable fantasy numbers above their teammate. Ridley is still prone to big blowup outings but his best years appear far behind him.

Quentin Johnston (WR) - Los Angeles Chargers

• Quentin Johnston has been the king of rookie disappointments this season. Heavy lies the crown. The Chargers first-round wideout has yet to produce a meaningful stat line despite the entire offensive depth chart clearing the way for increased production with losses of Mike Williams and Josh Palmer. Still, Johnston continues to play behind “lesser” talents while he struggles through his year-one development.

Dameon Pierce (RB) - Houston Texans

• Dameon Pierce’s plodding inefficiencies have finally caught up to him, both from a value and production standpoint. Even those who were once high on the bruising tailback are becoming lukewarm at best as the Texans offense is performing at an all-time high under C.J. Stroud while Pierce appears to be an afterthought in the game plan. 

Dynasty Waiver Adds

Noah Brown (WR) - Houston Texans

• Noah Brown sits behind only CeeDee Lamb as the top two producers in receiving yards over the last three weeks. Brown remains rostered in under 65.0% of collective Superflex leagues – a trend that needs to change immediately. 

Tommy DeVito (QB) - New York Giants

• With Daniel Jones (Knee) and Tyrod Taylor (Ribs) both on injured reserve, the Giants have no other contingency in place other than to roll out Tommy DeVito as their starting quarterback. DeVito should be rostered in 100.0% of Superflex leagues, simply for his starting status.

Jalen Guyton (WR) - Los Angeles Chargers

• Seeing as how Quentin Johnston is not the answer at wide receiver for an injury-riddled Chargers squad, managers may as well add the player who is favored by the team to run routes and earn opportunities.

Rico Dowdle (RB) - Dallas Cowboys

• The fade and fear surrounding Tony Pollard have reached a point where his backup must be rostered in all formats as the potential for replacement grows increasingly apparent.

Jameis Winston (QB) - New Orleans Saints

• We have yet to see the last of Jameis Winston’s career as an NFL starter. The Saints backup may have more opportunities to test his mettle as Derek Carr (Concussion/AC-Joint Sprain) is banged up with injuries.

Buy Low

Joshua Dobbs (QB) - Minnesota Vikings

• Joshua Dobbs has been written off by nearly every franchise he has played for, facing several scenic changes throughout his career. The journeyman has seemingly found a home as the temporary starter for the Vikings in lieu of Kirk Cousins. Dobbs may have “Geno Smith’d” himself into a future starting role as the longtime career backup is currently averaging 17.96 PPG as the QB7 overall. 

Sell High

Brian Robinson (RB) - Washington Commanders

• Brian Robinson’s overall scoring totals and averages may seem impressive at first glance until you realize that only 0.4 PPG separates Robinson from D’Andre Swift, who sits as the RB17 while a whopping 2.2 PPG separates the Commanders running back from breaking into the top-10 tier. The separation in production that Robinson provides between players viewed as high-upside RB1/RB2 is not nearly enough to value the bruising thumper at his current heights.

Weekly Market Evaluation

The most notable market movement of the week comes in the form of a second-year tight end cementing himself as a cornerstone asset and top-10 player at the position. Trey McBride’s astronomical ascent up the value charts yielded a +100-spot leap for the young tight end in Week 10. The market has swiftly adjusted its perception of McBride and is now clamoring to the trade wire to acquire the Cardinals' budding pass-catcher. Multiple top-tier veterans have lost all value amidst injuries while lesser producers get propped up simply based on availability alone. Several high-producing quarterbacks have increased their value after a reactionary market led to unmitigated decreases. Elite quarterbacks and young producing positional players are next to impossible to acquire in Superflex formats but the recent injury reports can allow for rebuilding managers to acquire future producers at the position for a fraction of their cost when healthy. 

Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.

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By Matt Ward