Week 11 Buy Low and Sell High

With Week 10 of the NFL season in the books, Lead Writer Matt Ward has his eyes on three buy-low targets and three sell-high targets heading into Week 11! Take advantage of your league mates by acquiring star players at their lowest value and dealing away volatile players at their highest values!

BUY LOW

Christian Kirk (WR) - Jacksonville Jaguars

Christian Kirk represents a rare combination that few players possess: Consistent production at an undervalued cost. A stand-alone performance in the Jaguars Week 10 blowout loss to the 49ers should have helped cement the veteran receiver as a potential league-winning asset. Instead, it has seemingly opened up an interesting buying window as managers look to turn a profit on one of the league’s most overlooked wideouts. This may be one of the rare instances where managers should be content with “buying high” as the asking price for the shifty slot mechanic is well below his suggested range of outcomes. Kirk has taken the backseat for a couple of much-needed breakout games from Calvin Ridley this season but remains entrenched atop the pecking order as the team’s top target. Kirk’s usage places him in a tier of elite producers, leading his position in receiving yards, targets, route participation, and snap percentage as the Jaguars' number-one receiver. Kirk is averaging 14.0 PPR PPG with a respectable 23.1% target share through ten weeks, adding to his unsuspecting late-career breakout from 2022. Trevor Lawrence continues to meander through consistency issues this season but has been sturdy enough to uphold several high-value fantasy outings from multiple members of the offense. Kirk should continue to benefit from a fairly easy strength of schedule and a lion's share of passing opportunities from a top-tier, albeit inconsistent, quarterback talent. 

Cole Kmet (TE) - Chicago Bears

The future of the tight-end position looks mighty bright with some young breakout talents this season. Cole Kmet shines as one of many youthful stars making their presence felt at the position, yet remains highly overlooked as a legitimate league-winning asset from a position of scarcity. A mediocre outing in Week 10 has some managers unrightfully waving their flags of confirmation bias toward the Bears' top tight end. The inevitable return of Justin Fields is also commonly viewed as a negative, with several slanted narratives suggesting Kmet’s recent heights to be a product of a remedial gameplan imposed while Tyson Bagent remained under center. Perhaps those same instigators are willingly ignoring the fact that Kmet’s single-game career high in fantasy points came during Week 4 when Fields was still calling shots and slinging dots. The opportunity share has been consistently elite throughout the season for Kmet, regardless of who he catches passes from. The Bears tight end is pulling an 18.7% target share (TE6) and ranks seventh in total targets (57), fifth in receptions (46), ninth in receiving yards (419), fifth in True Target Value (3.05), fourth in red zone opportunities (14) and second in receiving touchdowns (5). There are simply no cognitive reasons to believe that Kmet should be viewed as anything other than a top-10 positional asset for the remainder of the season.

Demario Douglas (WR) - New England Patriots

Demario Douglas is quietly developing into a must-start PPR flex player with a consistent floor of near-guaranteed production. Since Kendrick Bourne was placed on injured reserve, Douglas has shot up to the top of the depth chart with team-leading target totals in four consecutive contests. The unheralded rookie receiver has earned six or more targets in four straight games as the team’s newly-found WR1. The Patriots' offense as a whole has been a dumpster fire of disappointment, starting and ending with the horrendous inefficiencies of Mac Jones as the quarterback. Jones has been benched on three separate occasions this season, leading to mid-game switches to play-calling and projections for all members. Douglas has been surprisingly sturdy as the team leans on his sure hands to move the sticks. We are not attempting to prop the rookie up as an unjustified league-winner but there is a lot of overlooked production to be had from an overlooked receiver on the rise. The Patriots enter Week 11 with a mandated bye on tap, making Douglas an easily acquirable piece for managers who need a little stability at the bottom of their lineup.

SELL HIGH

Brandin Cooks (WR) - Dallas Cowboys

Brandin Cooks put on a vintage performance against the Giants in Week 10, collecting nine of 10 targets for 173 yards and one touchdown. The veteran’s 28.8 points marked a new season high while his 173 yards tied his career-best yardage total which came in Week 6 of 2016 against the Panthers. Cooks’ throwback performance was an emphatic stamp on the ageless wonder as the 30-year-old receiver has struggled throughout the 2023 season. Week 10 marks the only game this season that Cooks has secured more than four receptions or 50 yards. The veteran speedster has just three finishes as a top-24 positional asset, all of which have come within the last four games with touchdowns attached. He has yet to play more than 80.0% of the offensive snaps or have a route participation above 75.0% in any game this season. Cooks is pulling a menial target share of just 12.3% (39 Targets) while CeeDee Lamb has set career-highs in three consecutive outings as the undeniable top pass-catcher. The Cowboys offense is firing on all cylinders, and Cooks can certainly continue to be a part of the positive production the team is putting up. With that said, it is highly unlikely he will reach the scoring totals we saw in Week 10. There will undoubtedly be managers pining for the past when viewing the veteran wideout's most recent receiving slash. Time to take advantage of the nostalgia. 

Brian Robinson (RB) - Washington Commanders

Brian Robinson is currently being propped up as a league-winning RB1 after his stellar Week 10 outing that saw the second-year back set a career-high in receiving yards. Even after a 26.7-point outburst, Robinson remains a low-ceiling asset with a mediocre range of outcomes. He is averaging 13.2 PPG (RB13) but ranks as the RB4 overall this season. His overall scoring totals and averages may seem impressive at first glance until you realize that only 0.4 PPG separates Robinson from D’Andre Swift, who sits as the RB17 while a whopping 2.2 PPG separates the Commanders running back from breaking into the top-10 tier. The separation in production that Robinson provides between players viewed as high-upside RB1/RB2 is not nearly enough to value the bruising thumper at his current heights. A career-high six receptions for 119 yards and one touchdown is certainly a welcomed stat line for those who roster the plodding rusher but expecting that production again at any point during Robinson’s career is asinine. In 21 games played, Robinson has accrued two receptions (or more) only twice. He has just three career games with more than three targets. He has also never once in his career had a weekly RB1 finish without a touchdown. Reactionary managers think Robinson is on a hot streak of newfound production. I smell the fire and smoke of immense regression.

D’Onta Foreman (RB) - Chicago Bears

The second of two Bears teammates to grace our Buy Low/Sell High column this week. D’Onta Foreman, unfortunately, falls on the opposite end of the value spectrum as the veteran thumper is about to have a drastic change in scenery during the coming weeks. The Bears have designated Khalil Herbert and Justin Fields to return to the field as soon as Week 11. The former had climbed his way to the top of the depth chart as the unquestioned leader in the running back room before being injured. The former will undeniably mitigate the team’s need for Foreman in short-yardage situations as their uber-elite quarterback can create on the ground with immense success of his own. The Bears were operating with a remedial offense while Tyson Bagent played substitute signal-caller for the injured Fields, relying heavily on Foreman to create production between the tackles. A suddenly muddied backfield with a run-first quarterback at the helm will do no favors for the fan-favorite veteran running back during the closing portions of the fantasy season. Fresh off a 16.2-point outing against the Panthers, Foreman’s value as trade bait for a pseudo-contending roster in desperate need of running back help is well above his suggested range of outcomes for the remainder of the 2023 season. The Bears travel to face the Lions in Week 11, followed by another road game against the Vikings in Week 12, a bye in Week 13, a home-game rematch against the Lions in Week 14, and finally, another road outing against the Browns in Week 15. The next five weeks for Foreman are all against teams that rank in the top half of the NFL in shutting down opposing running backs, per Broto Fantasy’s True Matchup Rank with a guaranteed 0.0-point week during the Bears bye. The ride was fun while it lasted, now it’s time to hop off and ask for a refund.

Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.

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By Matt Ward