Sleepers and Busts: Week 5

SLEEPERS

QB: Matthew Stafford - Los Angeles Rams

Matthew Stafford has long been a “Kingmaker” for his wideouts, supporting the two greatest wide receiver seasons of all time (Calvin Johnson: 2012, Cooper Kupp 2022) while currently upholding the greatest rookie breakout in NFL history (Puka Nacua: 39 REC/52 TGT/501 YDS through 4 games). Sadly, Stafford himself is often overlooked as a viable fantasy asset as there have been several times in his career when his WR1 finishes above him in the fantasy standings. Nevertheless, the gumptious gunslinger is staring down the pipeline of a fantasy-friendly matchup and should have every manager's attention heading into Week 5. The Rams (2-2) play host to the Eagles (4-0) with the visiting team favored by 4.5 points on Vegas betting lines with a projected Over/Under total of 49.5 points. The Rams vs Eagles matchup sports the second-highest projected Over/Under total of Week 5, trailing only the Vikings and Chiefs in what is expected to be one of several shootout matchups this weekend. The Rams' offense has kept every game close, with stunning performances from unexpected producers such as Tutu Atwell, Kyren Williams, and of course, Puka Nacua. A close game against a top-tier offense in the Eagles, who also happen to be faltering on the defensive side of the ball, should lead to yet another big day for Stafford and company. The Eagles' defense is giving up 260.8 passing yards per game (27th) while allowing 22.5 points per game (16th) but just 63.0 rushing yards per game (2nd). The way to beat this team is through the air and Stafford is wholly capable of doing so. The Eagles have conceded 20.6 PPG to opposing quarterbacks so far this season, ranked 4th in True Matchup Rank with a Points Over Average rating of 54.4%. Increasingly encouraging is the fact that the Eagles defense concedes the majority of their production via the air, allowing 19.2 PPG of passing production (4th) and just 1.4 PPG of rushing production (22nd) to rival quarterbacks. Stafford is averaging 307.3 YDS/G but has thrown five interceptions to only three touchdowns. Last, but certainly not least, the Rams have reportedly activated star wideout Cooper Kupp off injured reserve and he is expected to make his return against the Eagles, giving Stafford an embarrassment of riches in which to dispatch an exploitable matchup. If the veteran signal-caller can limit his turnover-worthy plays in Week 5, he can easily rise above the ranks as one of the week’s top positional performers.

Matt Ward

RB: Breece Hall - New York Jets

Word on the beat is that Breece Hall’s pitch count and snap limitations have been removed. You better stick to your word, Robert Saleh. There is no better time to unleash Hall in your lineups than this week against the Broncos. This team has to be fired up after watching Zach Wilson perform well enough to take down the Chiefs despite narrowly losing in the end. Bitter defeat in the wake of newfound success is a terrific motivator. The Broncos (1-3) host the Jets (1-3) at home and will attempt to keep a rising offense at bay, something they aren’t particularly successful at. Denver has allowed 150 points in four games (32nd: 37.5 PPG), ranking dead last in total yards allowed (32nd: 478.5 YDS/G), bottom three in passing yards allowed (30th: 285.5 YDS/G) all while sporting by far the worst rushing defense in the NFL (32nd: 176.0 YDS/G). A menial 2.5-point spread in favor of the Broncos suggests a close game on tap that neither squad is likely to run away with, allowing The Jets to keep their rushing volume at a reasonable rate. The Broncos are currently conceding 26.3 points of rushing production and 14.6 points of receiving production to the running back position, ranked as the second-best matchup in Broto Fantasy’s exclusive True Matchup Rank with an absurd Points Over Average of 115.1%. Sure, some of those stats are skewed and affected by the 70-point loss to the Dolphins where they allowed 350 rushing yards but the Broncos' defense has been quite horrendous in every outing outside of that game as well. Khalil Herbert and Brian Robinson Jr. had their way with the Broncos' run defense in Week 2 and Week 4 and Hall is a much more talented player that can easily take advantage of his proposed matchup. It’s entirely possible that you haven’t started Hall in a single game this season but if you did, you probably got burnt and regretted it. This matchup may not be as lopsided as it looks but it’s still a beatable unit and a player you should trust moving forward. 

Themi Michalakis

WR: Jakobi Meyers - Las Vegas Raiders

Jakobi Meyers has come out of the gates swinging to start his 2023 campaign. Averaging over 13.7 Half-PPR points per game, the newest Raiders wide receiver has made his presence felt for fantasy managers who took a shot on his lowly ADP this offseason. Through three games played, Meyers has put his upside on display while surprisingly keeping pace alongside Devante Adams as the Raiders' top two wideouts continue to find success on a struggling offense. In Week 1, against the Broncos, Meyesr exploded for nine catches, 81 yards, and a pair of touchdowns while leading the team in targets (10), helping to boost himself toward a WR3 overall finish on the week. After recovering from an unfortunate concussion, Meyers went right back to being productive as he caught 7 of his 12 targets and put up 85 receiving yards, on his way to a WR31 finish for week three. Things cooled off for the crafty veteran in week four with Aidan O’Connell under center but after producing a mid-level WR3 and a high-end WR1 weekly finish in his first two games, Meyers has cemented himself as a much-needed cog in the Raiders system. He’s firmly entrenched as the WR2 for the Raiders with his 24.0% target share, which is 6% higher than the next closest player, Josh Jacobs. Meyers has been getting peppered with targets, seeing 26 in three games. This trend should continue as the Raiders (1-3) face off against the Packers (2-2) this week in a rare cross-conference matchup between the two franchises. The Packers defense has as many holes in it as their fans' cheesehead hats. They have been giving up plenty of fantasy points to opposing offenses, allowing 372.0 (22nd) total yards and 24.0 (20th) points per game. The Packers are the fifth easiest opponent for wide receivers via True Matchup Rank, giving up 31.4% Points Over Average to the position. With Jimmy G likely returning to the fold, Meyers seeing double-digit targets in both games he started, coupled with the opposition's weakness towards wide receivers–sign me up for a big Meyers game against a porous Packers secondary. 

TE: Zach Ertz - Arizona Cardinals

Zach Ertz is criminally undervalued and underappreciated for the consistent production he brings to the table from a position that is virtually barren of meaningful fantasy assets. Ertz has been a major fixture of the Cardinals' offense, earning 30 total targets (TE2) with an elite 24.1% target share (TE1) and a target rate of 27.3% (TE3). The veteran tight end has run 110 total routes this season (TE12) with an 89.4% route participation rating (TE7), and 84 slot snaps (TE5). Ertz’s participation has been sensational this season and his efficiency has followed suit. The longtime Eagles-turned-Cardinals tight end is boasting a 7.7-yard aDOT (TE7), accounting for 23.7% of his team’s total air yards (TE2), ranking top five in both red zone opportunities (5) and deep targets (3) amongst his positional peers. Ertz draws an enticingly favorable matchup in Week 5 as the Cardinals (1-3) stay at home to host a downtrodden Bengals squad (1-3). Vegas betting lines favor the Bengals by only 3.0 points with a lowly Over/Under projected total of 44.5 combined points. As bad as the Bengals offense has looked through the first four games, Week 5 allows them to set the record straight and get their season on track. A close matchup with the potential for scoring against two of the NFL’s lower-rated defenses is an excellent place for Ertz to produce above his current projections. The Bengals currently rank second in True Matchup Rank to tight ends, conceding 12.6 PPG after allowing touchdowns to Harrison Bryant (Week 1), Mark Andrews (Week 2), and Josh Whyle (Week 4) with a monster five-catch/71-yard outing from Tyler Higbee (Week 3) sandwiched in between. The Bengals defense has arguably been the only bright spot of this franchise this season but their inability to stop tight ends from dominating in the red zone (and between the 20s) is concerning. Ertz has secured six receptions in three of his first four games, tallying 10, 8, and 10 targets in said contests. The Cardinals TE1/WR2 is in a smash spot to continue his safe and serviceable floor as a top 12 option once again.

Matt Ward

BUSTS

QB: Trevor Lawrence - Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence has yet to find his identity this season as the generational talent he was once so fondly labeled. The former first-overall pick is averaging just 14.96 PPG as the QB19 Overall, throwing for 943 yards (235.8 YDS/G) with a 67.1% completion rating (96 CMP/143 ATT) with only four touchdowns to two interceptions and eight sacks across four games played. The team as a whole is averaging a mere 20.0 PPG, scoring just 26 points combined in Week 2 and Week 3 with only one offensive touchdown in Week 4 as well. Although the franchise found a much-needed win in their first of two pseudo-home games in London, the offense has looked incredibly pedestrian and now has an incredibly difficult matchup traveling across the pond. The Jaguars (2-2) are technically the away team this week as the team welcomes the Bills (3-1) to their second of two NFL International Series contests. The Jaguars have made London a home away from home, playing twice as many games there than any other NFL franchise with a 5-5 record and 3-0 record in their last three outings overseas. It may be familiar territory but the field will feel anything but friendly for the Jaguars. The Bills are favored by 5.5 points with a projected Over/Under of 48.5 despite their opponents having the added advantage of already training and practicing at their international destination. The AFC East leaders have been red hot since dropping a close game to the Jets in Week 1, boasting the number-two ranked offense (34.8 PPG) and number-two ranked defense (13.8 PPG) in the NFL. The Bills have allowed just 312.8 total yards (9th) and 169.5 passing yards (4th) per game this season and are especially stingy against opposing quarterbacks when it comes to fantasy production. The Bills are conceding a mere 7.6 PPG to the quarterback position, ranked 32nd in True Matchup Rank as the worst possible matchup for their opposition’s managers. They have a Points Over Average rating of negative (-)53.8%, giving up just 6.8 points of passing production and 0.8 points of rushing production to quarterbacks. Lawrence is on the wrong side of regression and it is unlikely that he will break those tides against the Bills in Week 5.

Matt Ward

RB: Miles Sanders - Carolina Panthers

The Lions' defense is a brutal matchup for opposing running backs. The Chiefs backfield combined for 45 yards on 14 carries in Week 1. The Seahawks managed 62 on 21 attempts in Week 2 and the entire Falcons offense combined for 44 rushing yards in Week 3. Last week against the Packers, Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon both carried the ball only five times with neither player exceeding 18 yards rushing. The Lions sit first in True Matchup Rank against running backs and first in defensive rushing DVOA. There are infinitely more concerns than there are positives for the Panthers offense this week. Miles Sanders is averaging just 10.3 PPG as the RB22 in Half-PPR scoring, giving him enough of a floor to warrant starting him as your RB2/FLEX in most leagues. Unfortunately, there is no projectable ceiling in this matchup. The Panthers offense has been atrocious through our games and is about to square off against one of the NFL’s top overall units who happen to be entering the game on extra rest after playing Thursday Night Football the week prior. The Lions enter the game as a whopping 10.0-point favorite at home, laying the way for a negative game script for the Panthers' running backs as the team will likely be forced to increase their passing volume and move the ball downfield as they play from behind. The Lions' defense is allowing just 60.8 total rushing yards per game (1st), with 12.3 PPG and a Points Over Average rating of negative (-) 48.1% to opposing running backs. Furthermore, Sanders has been dealing with a nagging groin injury, leading to an increase in touches for Chuba Hubbard who just so happened to lead the team in carries last week. Sanders has yet to exceed 15.0 half-PPR points in a single game this season. He gets just enough volume each week to build a decent floor but both his opportunity share and production could dissipate in a poor matchup. The only thing that could save Sanders' week is a miraculous touchdown, something he has done only once this season and the entire Panthers offense failed to do last game.

Themi Michalakis

WR: Jerry Jeudy - Denver Broncos

This certainly hasn’t been the start to the season that Jerry Jeudy drafters were hoping for. Jeudy has been one of the most disappointing fantasy busts after sporting an ADP in the 5th/6th-round range this offseason. The Broncos wideout is averaging a measly 7.1 Half-PPR PPG with only one top-36 weekly positional finish in his first three games (missed Week 1 with a hamstring injury). His best performance came against the Dolphins in the Broncos historic 70-20 loss. Jeudy managed to finish with five catches for 81 yards despite the vast majority of the game script benefiting a pass-heavy offense. That outing propelled Jeudy toward a WR33 weekly finish, a lowly height for the Broncos wideout. All in all, Jeudy hasn’t been the reliably startable fantasy asset that managers were looking for when drafting him, and I don’t expect that to change this week against the rock-solid Jets defense. Sauce Gardner and company have been playing lights out, severely limiting the upside of wide receivers matched up against them. The Jets defense is giving up just 215.8 passing yards per game, effectively shutting down the passing offenses of Josh Allen (29 CMP/41 ATT/236 YDS/1 TDS/3 INT) in Week 1, Mac Jones in Week 3 (15 CMP/29 ATT/201 YDS/1 TD), and Patrick Mahomes in Week 4 (18 CMP/30 ATT/203 YDS/1 TD/2 INT) with the only positive quarterback performance allowed coming from Dak Prescott in Week 2 (31 CMP/38 ATT/255 YDS/2 TD). Heading into Week 5, the Jets are the second-hardest opponent in the True Matchup Rank for wide receivers, allowing negative (-)31.5% Points Over Average to the position (31st). Similar to the quarterback woes this top-tier secondary has caused, CeeDee Lamb and Stefon Diggs are the only wideouts to post a top-15 outing against this defense. Unfortunately, Jeudy is well below that tier of talent. None of the aforementioned narratives bode well for Jeudy, or any members of the Broncos offense for that matter, with all signs pointing toward the wideouts being locked outside of the top 36 wide receivers yet again. Pivot where you can and look for a different player to plug into your lineup. 

Boyd Armstrong

TE: Darren Waller - New York Giants

Darren Waller has struggled mightily to find consistency within the Giants' offense. Expectations are sky-high for the veteran tight end in his first season with the franchise. The team has entrusted Waller with a defacto WR1 role as the team lacks depth and talent at the wideout position. His usage has been encouraging. His production has been anything but. There is a laundry list of negative narratives to place blame upon when it comes to Waller’s lack of production and the dysfunction of the Giants offense but most of those narratives can start and stop with the quarterback. Daniel Jones is an absolute mess, turning the ball over at an ungodly rate while hindering his entire offense with his questionable decision-making. Jones’ newly-minted 24 career fumbles are the most by any player since he entered the league in 2019 and the most by any quarterback in a four-year span in NFL History. For further context, Jones has mounted zero touchdown drives in three of his four starts this season. Against the Seahawks in Week 4, Jones added to his disastrous season by completing 27/34 attempts for 203 yards with two interceptions, including a game-sealing 97-yard pick six, while being sacked ten (10!!!) times. In the midst of all that, Waller failed to produce yet again, tallying 21 yards on three receptions and three targets (8.8% Target Share) despite playing a team-high 92.0% of the offensive snaps (69). The Giants (1-3) will now face off against the Dolphins (3-1) in a cross-conference road matchup between two teams with polar opposite trajectories. The Dolphins are favored by 12.0 points at home with a projected Over/Under scoring total of 47.5 points via Vegas betting lines. The Giants' 12.0-point underdog spread marks the largest projected separation of points of any game on the Week 5 slate. Usually, a come-from-behind game script with lots of passing is a positive for a tight end with a team-leading opportunity share. This week, not so much. Waller will face off against a defense that is ranked 22nd in True Matchup Rank with a Points Over Average Rating of negative (-)9.7%. There is nothing to suggest that Waller is a must-start option this weekend and may be better served as a stash on your bench until the Giants fix the holes in their leaking ship.

Matt Ward

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