A 4-3 week puts us up 0.36u. The teaser legs are hitting 83.33% of the time after a clean sweep on Sunday. This week should be a lot kinder to us for the straight bets.
2023 Total: 11-6, +2.8u
Teasers:
All teasers are 2-team/6-point teasers at one unit unless otherwise noted. Make sure to only bet teasers at -120 or better.
Carolina Panthers @ Detroit Lions (-9.5) O/U: 43.5
Houston Texans (+1.5) @ Atlanta Falcons O/U: 41.5
Themi’s Teaser: Lions -2.5, Texans +9
I’ll be bending my rules again like I did with the Eagles last week. The Detroit Lions host the Carolina Panthers with extra rest after playing on Thursday Night Football. Carolina has only exceeded 17 points in a game once this season—when Andy Dalton took over for Bryce Young against an awful Seahawks defense missing key players. They still lost that game by 10 and couldn’t hold onto their lead against a below-average Vikings defense. The Panthers may boast the 11th best pass defense by DVOA but they’re 32nd against the run and have a bottom-5 offense. The Lions, on the other hand, are one of the more well-rounded teams in the league and have a legitimate claim as a top-3 NFC team. With their OT loss to the Seahawks behind them, they should win by at least 3 against a struggling team still missing Jaycee Horn and Shaq Thompson. There are some offensive issues for Detroit heading into this as Amon-Ra St. Brown is doubtful to play and Jahmyr Gibbs is questionable. Jameson Williams’ return couldn’t come at a better time but he may not be ready to handle a massive workload just yet. David Montgomery can still destroy the worst run defense in the league and players like Sam LaPorta, Josh Reynolds, and Kalif Raymond can pick up the pieces. We don’t need to cover 9.5. Tease them by 7 points at -140 down to -2.5.
The Texans are on a 2-game win streak after struggling to start the season. They’ve out-scored the Jaguars and Steelers 67-23 and head to Atlanta to take on a struggling Falcons team. It’s hard to get a real read on the Falcons. Desmond Ridder has been awful this season but Atlanta was competitive in their first 2 games and were able to lean on a sneaky good defense and great run game. You can see just how glaring the difference between the pass and run game is when you look at their offensive DVOA—31st in passing and 10th in rushing. The Texans happen to be on the other side of the spectrum, ranking 5th in passing and 30th in rushing. According to ESPN Analytics, the Texans have the 2nd best pass block win rate while the Falcons only have the 30th best pass block win rate. 3rd overall pick Will Anderson is off to a booming start, with a 31% win rate despite being double teamed about as often as Myles Garrett and Micah Parsons. He only has 1 sack but the team is generating a QB knockdown on 10.4% of opposing dropbacks, 6th best in the league. Desmond RIdder is getting pressured at the 10th highest rate and has been sacked 16 times already. The Falcons are probably just significantly worse than they looked the first two weeks of the year and are beginning to play like a team that needs incredible circumstances to win convincingly. There’s still a legitimate risk that Atlanta can run all over Houston but teasing them up to a TD is a high percentage play in a game with a very low point total.
New York Jets (+2.5) @ Denver Broncos O/U: 43.5
Green Bay Packers (+1.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders O/U: 44.5
Themi’s Teaser: Jets +8.5, Packers +7.5
A single game won’t affect how I feel about the Jets but it’s clear that they have signs of life on offense. They’re still one of the worst in that category, 27th in DVOA and 30th in EPA/play, but Denver has the worst defense in the league right now. What the Jets did—or didn’t do—against defenses like Dallas (1st), Buffalo (2nd), and New England (8th) won’t necessarily reflect on how they perform against a Denver team that needed a miracle comeback to beat the Bears by 3. The Chiefs are above-average on defense but have clearly been the most exploitable matchup for the Jets this year and Zach Wilson took advantage. On the other hand, Denver has an exciting offense despite the criticisms of the team as a whole and should do some damage here. I still don’t trust them to win by more than a TD with their defensive woes. A Jets win is well in play and they’re an excellent teaser pick with a low point total.
What exactly do the Raiders do well? You’d think a team with an efficient Jimmy Garoppolo throwing to Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Josh Jacobs could get something going. Ranking 15th in EPA+CPOE, Garoppolo seems like he can still run an offense but leaving two systems he could excel in to Josh McDaniels in Vegas hasn’t helped. McDaniels is just another one of many coaches from the Bill Belichick tree who find themselves unable to succeed as a head coach. That would explain why the Raiders are 31st in offensive DVOA. And don’t let last week’s game with Aidan O’Connell fool you, this team has not finished a game all season with a positive offensive DVOA, joining the Panthers as the only other team. The Vegas defense isn’t any better at 28th overall in defensive DVOA. They’re just slightly below-average against the run which is a slight positive amongst the negatives but they’ll have their hands full against a Packers offense nearing full strength. After a disappointing TNF game against the well-rounded Lions, Green Bay got extra rest and Aaron Jones and Christian Watson should be healthy enough to make an impact. The David Bakhtiari injury will hurt GB tremendously but Rasheed Walker and Zach Tom rank quite highly in PFF’s player grades. The rest of the line is quite weak which may push the Raiders to try and stifle Jordan Love but the Raiders have been terrible at generating pressure and sacking opposing QBs so far. The Packers were once favored but Jimmy Garoppolo clearing the concussion protocol helped pushed them to underdogs. Now at a perfect line to tease, we’re taking Green Bay.
Straight:
Chiefs -3.5 (-110)
It may seem like the Chiefs are bound to lose again anytime soon. Their loss to the Lions to open the season was not a fluke and things have gotten very real, very quickly. It’s not like they’re a bad team but their one-score wins against the Jaguars and Jets haven’t convinced anyone that they can be the world-beaters they usually are. To their credit, though, they’re still one of the most efficient offenses in the league and have an above-average defense. I don’t think anyone would be shocked to see the Chiefs convincingly beat any team in the league right now. The Vikings are coming off a flukey 2022 season that saw them make the playoffs despite ranking 28th in DVOA. They’re not nearly that bad this year but the defense is still an issue. Losses to the good-but-flawed Bucs, Eagles, and Chargers have been close but their offense just can’t keep up with the amount of points they give up. Kansas City may still have a receiver issue but they’re a much better team and better enough to take an awkward spread of -3.5.
Rams +4 (-110)
Philadelphia may have lost Jonathon Gannon but new DC Sean Desai has done a good job with an injury-riddled Eagles defense. It’s still clear there are issues there, though, and the team will face a big test when they head to LA to play the Rams. Overall, the Eagles are still the better team. They rank 7th on offense and 10th in defense by DVOA and boast the best run defense in the league. They’re below-average against the pass but not by much which makes it strange that they’ve only won one game by more than 6 points this year. The Patriots, Vikings, and Commanders have their share of flaws but admittedly do have good run defenses which could be the key to stopping the Eagles. Whatever the case, they’re a talented bunch that has dealt with defensive injuries and still won. Fletcher Cox will miss his first game since 2017 but the line should still be tough to beat with Jalen Carter there. The Rams have plenty of talent of their own. PFF ranks Matthew Stafford as the 6th best QB (Jalen Hurts is 18th), and Stafford also ranks 11th in adjusted EPA/play. The Rams offense ranks 13th in the league and gets star WR Cooper Kupp back. With Puka Nacua now able to play as the WR2, there’s no telling how high the ceiling is for this passing attack. There are legitimate defensive concerns for the Rams but they’ve been able to keep most teams at bay and pushed the 49ers to their limit. At home with things really clicking, the Rams are a decent bet at +4.
Jets ML (+115)
This matchup is covered in the teaser section. While the Jets should cover the teaser, they’re also a good bet to straight up win this game. Denver has a solid offense and could regress to a slightly better defense but I’ll take Gang Green in this one.
Saints ML (-110)
Quietly operating as one of the better teams in the league, New Orleans is looking to bounce back from an embarrassing performance against the division rival Buccaneers last week. After keeping every game within 3 points, though their first three games of the season, the Saints lost by a whopping 17 to Baker Mayfield and company even with Mike Evans missing plenty of snaps.
Like the Bucs, the Patriots boast an impressive defensive unit but a struggling offensive unit. Thankfully for Derek Carr and his passing struggles, the Patriots are just a bit softer against the pass and just lost their best CB, rookie Christian Gonzalez. Matthew Judon will also miss time as he undergoes bicep surgery. The team recently re-acquired CB J.C. Jackson from the Chargers. Jackson had a spectacular 2021 season but has struggled with LA and could return to form under Bill Belichick. RB Alvin Kamara should have shaken off some rust after his short suspension but the team is lacking a big rushing threat which means getting any advantage in the passing game will be critical. The miniscule point total still reflects just how bad of a time any team will have trying to score and makes each teaser point just that much more valuable. The Saints have the 9th best defense in the league and should bounce back this week.
By Themi Michalakis
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