Week 4 had a lot of last-minute news (which you can stay up-to-date on by watching CrunchTime Live on Sunday at 11am-12pm on the Broto fantasy app or Broto Fantasy on Youtube) that changed the fantasy landscape. Even with the late news, we still nailed plenty of picks for cash and GPPs.
QB: Justin Herbert- 24.38, Brock Purdy- 21.32, CJ Stroud- 24.84, Josh Allen- 39.5, Anthony Richardson- 30.6, Russell Wilson- 22.22
RB: D’Andre Swift- 17.9, Kyren Williams- 30.7, CMC- 51.7
WR: Brandon Aiyuk- 23.8 (I tweeted out to move off Deebo with his late addition to the injury report, you can also join the Broto fantasy Patreon and get access to some hot DFS talk at Brotofantasy.com/patreon)
TE: Jake Ferguson- 14.7
D/ST: HOU D/ST- 12
My best GPP lineup finished 2nd out of 35 entries in a qualifier contest, here is the lineup:
QB: Brock Purdy- 21.32
RB: CMC- 51.7
RB: De’Von Achane- 30
WR: Jaylen Waddle- 8.6
WR: Tank Dell- 3.9
WR: Adam Thielen- 15.2
TE: Jake Ferguson- 14.7
FLEX: Brandon Aiyuk- 23.8
D/ST: Browns D/ST- 4
For a total of 173.22 points
Time to identify more winners this week! Let’s win some money in Week 5!
Week 5 DraftKings slate
Games to target:
1. CIN @ ARI – 44.5 O/U
Implied totals: CIN 23.75; ARI 20.75
2. NYG @ MIA – 49.5 O/U
Implied totals: NYG 19.5; MIA 30
3. KC @ MIN – 52.5 O/U
Implied totals: KC 29; MIN 23.5
4. PHI @ LAR- 50.5 O/U
Implied totals: PHI 28; LAR 22.5
Top Cash Plays:
Quarterbacks
There are more mid to high range options in Week 5 than low range options.
Patrick Mahomes ($8,200)
Mahomes hasn’t set the fantasy world on fire yet, however, he is doing a decent amount of rushing which boosts his overall ceiling. He currently ranks 6th in rushing attempts and 3rd in rushing yards among QBs. This might be the get right game for Mahomes and the Chiefs. The Vikings have allowed high point totals to good QBs - 34 points to Jalen Hurts and the Eagles and 28 points to Justin Herbert and the Chargers. Another reason I like Mahomes this week is because of the dome. Mahomes is 8-0 career in domes while sporting a 19:2 TD to INT ratio and averaging 320.75 passing yards/gm. This game also has the highest O/U for the week at 52.5.
Kirk Cousins ($6,900)
The Vikings offense was upended by Carolina in Week 4 due to time of possession. The Panthers sat on the ball for over 38 minutes, hence disrupting “Captain” Kirk and the entire offense. Even with Week 4’s debacle, Cousins still ranks top-5 in many fantasy-relevant categories:
2nd in pass attempts
2nd in True Throw Value (TTaV)
4th in yards/gm 303.5
1st in passing TDs
Even though the Chiefs defense has been better with 4-time Pro Bowler DT Chris Jones re-signed, Kirk will have to throw to keep pace with the Chiefs in Week 5.
Josh Dobbs ($5,300)
Through his first four weeks as the Cardinals starter, Josh Dobbs has scored 20+ points twice. The key to Dobbs’ success has been his rushing ability. Dobbs has rushed for 40+ yards in three of his four starts. He also has limited his turnovers outside of an ugly three fumble game against the Commanders in week 1 (0 INTs and 1 fumble since). Dobbs allows you to jam in studs at RB and WR without sacrificing a lot at the QB position.
Other options: Anthony Richardson ($7,000) and C.J. Stroud ($6,000) are good mid-value plays this week. Be warned with C.J. Stroud, as he just had another offensive lineman injured. LG Kendrick Green tore his meniscus in his right knee in Week 4 per Adam Schefter, and is out indefinitely.
Running Back
Alvin Kamara ($6,300)
It only took one week for Alvin Kamara to lead all RBs in WOPR (weighted opportunity rating) at 51.7%. Kamara came out of the gate strong in Week 4 with a 36.8% target share and 11 carries. With QB Derek Carr still banged up, Kamara should continue to be a target hog in Week 5.
Bijan Robinson ($7,700)
Robinson has had 10+ carries and 5+ targets in every game this season which has resulted in him scoring 20+ points in three out of four games. Robinson has also maintained a 60%+ snap share in three of four weeks and for the first time this season had a 60%+ rushing share in Week 4. Robinson also gets a plus matchup in the Texans, who rank as the 5th best matchup for opposing RBs per Broto’s True Matchup Rank (a Broto exclusive tool that helps you find the best positional matchups to exploit and is available for free on the Broto fantasy app).
D’Andre Swift ($6,000)
It’s not déjà vu, once again we are going back to D’Andre Swift because he’s still too cheap. Swift still handled double-digit carries and had a season-high four targets in Week 4. Swift currently ranks:
2nd in total rushing yards
5th in rushing yards/gm
5th in yards/att
Expect Swift to continue to produce in Week 5.
Other considerations: Isiah Pacheco ($5,700), Kyren Williams ($6,700), Joe Mixon $6,400.
Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson ($9,400)
Jefferson has had 26 or more fantasy points in every game this season and there is no reason to think it stops in Week 5. Jefferson ranks 3rd in targets and receptions, 1st in True Target Value (TTaV), 3rd in receiving TDs, and 5th in target share at 29.9%. The Chiefs just gave up 12 receptions for 121 yards and 1TD to Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard. Expect another huge outing from Jefferson in Week 5.
Tyreek Hill ($9,000)
Not every week can be a 30-point week for Hill, unfortunately. Hill bombed in a big spot against the Bills in Week 4. He still ranks 5th in WOPR amongst WRs and 9th in target share. Thankfully, Hill gets to play the Giants in Week 5, which should be the elixir he needs. The Giants allowed 151 yards receiving to TE Noah Fant, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett and none of them have Hill’s elite speed.
Ja’Marr Chase ($7,900)
Things have not been good in Bengals country but Ja’Marr Chase continues to be a target hog, at least. He has 24 targets over his past two games and ranks 13th among WRs in WOPR. Chase draws another plus matchup against the Cardinals, who reside as the 7th best matchup for opposing WRs.
Tight End
T.J. Hockenson ($6,500)
Once again, Hockenson is underpriced. He failed to live up to expectations last week with a 2/24 line but as I mentioned earlier, that was a function of Carolina hogging the ball. Hockenson gets a friendlier matchup in Week 5 as the Chiefs rank as the 7th best matchup for opposing TEs per Broto’s True Matchup Rank. Expect a return to normal for Hockenson in Week 5.
Zach Ertz ($3,500)
Ertz’s consistency is comforting. He’s had 8 or more targets in three of his four games played. He ranks 4th in WOPR, 1st in target share at 24.4%, 5th in True Target Value (TTaV), and 3rd in redzone opportunities. All these stats should correlate nicely with a matchup against the Bengals. The Bengals are the 2nd best matchup for opposing TEs.
D/ST
Miami Dolphins ($3,600)
The Giants have been nothing short of a disaster, hence their ranking of 32nd in pro football reference’s expected points at -51.68. The Giants also rank 27th in offensive turnover rate at 18.2%. Miami’s offense will force the Giants to pass, giving the defense ample opportunity to create turnovers.
Favorite stacks:
1. Tua Tagovailoa + Devone Achane + Tyreek Hill with Saquon Barkley/Wan’Dale Robinson bring back. This is a decent spot to go fully in on Miami with No NY bring back as well.
2. Patrick Mahomes + Isiah Pacheco + Travis Kelce with Justin Jefferson/Jordan Addison bring back. There are several ways to be unique with this game and you will likely need to as it projects to be popular.
3. Jalen Hurts + AJB/D’Andre Swift with Cooper Kupp/Puka Nacua/Kyren Williams bring back.
4. C.J. Stroud + Nico Collins with a Bijan Robinson bring back.
GPP Plays:
Quarterbacks High End
Jalen Hurts ($8,000)
Anthony Richardson just carved this defense up for 30.6 fantasy points. As good as Richardson has been rushing, Jalen Hurts has been even better. Hurts ranks 2nd in rushing attempts, 3rd in rushing TDs and 5th in rushing yards so far in 2023. Hurts is expensive, however, he should put up good numbers in a game with an O/U of 50.5.
Anthony Richardson ($7,000)
Per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report, Richardson was involved on a designed run on 25% of offensive plays in addition to having an 8% scramble rate. In two of his three games played, Richardson has 10 rushing attempts in two of them. He also hit the 200-yard passing mark twice in three games played. Richardson’s insane rushing volume gives him a strong floor and high ceiling for Week 5.
Running Back
Saquon Barkley ($8,100) (Limited practice participation Wed)
The only way the Giants can make this a game is to run the offense through Barkley. In Barkley’s last game, he had 17 rushing attempts and 7 targets. Going against Miami, Barkley will have to be heavily used. I anticipate Barkley having low rostership, making him an intriguing GPP play.
Derrick Henry ($7,500)
Derrick Henry looked to be back to his old ways in Week 4, running for 122 yards and a score. “King” Henry has a long history with the Colts. In 14 career games against them, Henry has averaged 92 yards and 0.5 TDs per game. Fortunately for Henry, the Colts rank as the 11th best matchup for opposing RBs, making this play even better. With the amount of cheap RBs available, I expect Henry to have low rostership this week.
Breece Hall ($5,400)
I’ve been waiting for the longest time to include Breece in this piece, and finally the time has come. Per Rich Cimini, Jets beat reporter, HC Robert Saleh said that Breece has no longer has a pitch count. Hall ranks 6th in yards/carry and 15th in PPOxTD (points per opportunity excluding TDs) which will correlate well with the Broncos ranking as the 2nd best matchup for opposing RBs. Easy, Breece, beautiful, Fantasy football.
Wide Receivers
Michael Pittman ($6,400)
Pittman had his first bad game of the year in Week 4. It was the first time he had under 11 targets and less than 50 yards. Pittman gets a dream matchup with the Titans, who rank as the 3rd best matchup for opposing WRs. Pittman should get back to his double-digit target ways.
(Puka Nacua $7,700/Cooper Kupp $8,600)
Being exploitative in GPPs is a great way to make your lineup unique. With Cooper Kupp’s status still in the air, this week could be a great to play either Nacua or Kupp. The uncertainty of Kupp’s status will cause most players to shy away, leaving an opportunity to get Nacua or Kupp at low rostership. Playing the Eagles also makes this play better as the Eagles rank as the 2nd best matchup for opposing WRs. Also, make sure you tune into CrunchTime on Sundays at 11am to get up-to-date information for all your lineup decisions.
Tight Ends
I am comfortable using my cash TEs recommendations for GPPs, however, I will give you one more option for this week.
TE Tyler Conklin ($3,200)
The Denver Broncos defense is putrid. They made QB Justin Fields look like an all-pro and TE Cole Kmet look like Travis Kelce. Although this is primarily a matchup play, Tyler Conklin does have 17 targets over his last 3 games and produced 50 yards in two of those three games. Use Conklin with confidence in Week 5.
D/ST
New York Jets ($3,100)
Sorry Broncos fans, but we’re going back to picking on the Broncos. The Broncos have allowed pressure on 25.5% of their drop backs, ranking 21st. The Jets have the 7th best defensive pressure rate at 26.5%, which should result in QB Russell Wilson having a long, painful day.
Lone Ranger (sub $5,000 player that can score over 10 fantasy points)
In Week 4, WR Adam Thielen came through with 14 points. HC Sean Payton made sure that WR Marvin Mims Jr. failed me by only letting him play 35% of the snaps. That brings me to 4-4 on the young season.
WR Michael Wilson ($3,700) & WR Wan’Dale Robinson. ($3,000) (Limited practice participation Wednesday)
Michael Wilson emerged as another option for QB Josh Dobbs last week, earning 7 targets and turning that into a 7/76/2 line, bringing his WOPR up to 42%. With a 44.5 O/U, Wilson should be busy again in Week 5.
#ShortKingSummer isn’t quite over yet. One of my favorite under-sized draft prospects in Wan’Dale Robinson is working his way back from injury and doing what he does best, earn targets. He’s already earned 11 total targets through two games played and I only expect that number to rise. Wan’Dale will be used early and often to keep pace with the juggernaut that is the Miami offense.
Have a great Week 5 of DFS! Win big and be kind to each other!
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By Clayton Jones aka @FF_Pulse_88 on Twitter and on The Fantasy Football by Broto app!
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.