Dynasty Market Report: Week 9

Managing a Dynasty roster is about building long-lasting success in the chaotic and unpredictable landscape of fantasy football. The idea should be to give yourself as many assets/bargaining chips as possible so that when you move all in, the deck is stacked in your favor. “We are card counters at the blackjack table, and we’re going to turn the odds at the casino.” Today, we look at some intriguing assets in Dynasty, drawing unbiased values from Sleeper ADP, Dynasty League Football, and KeepTradeCut in an attempt to exploit certain market discrepancies. As always, we will be viewing these players and values through a Superflex lens.

WEEK 9 DYNASTY MARKET REPORT

Notable Market Risers

Will Levis QB - Tennessee Titans

• Will Levis skyrocketed up the Dynasty ranks after a stunning debut against a formidable Falcons secondary. The second-round rookie quarterback tossed missiles all over the field, completing 19/29 attempts for 238 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions. Levis is just the third quarterback in NFL history to begin their career with four touchdown passes, joining Marcus Mariota (2015) and Hall of Famer Fran Tarkenton (1961) as the only players to accomplish the lofty feat. The entire Titans offense had just three total passing touchdowns (Tannehill: 2/Henry: 1) before Week 8. Three of Levis's four passing touchdowns came from a distance of 30 yards or more, marking the most deep ball touchdown passes by any quarterback in NFL History in their first start.

Breece Hall RB - New York Jets

• Breece Hall continues to cement himself as a cornerstone dynasty asset and borderline generational NFL talent. The second-year star showed off his sensational big-play ability yet again in Week 8, taking a simple check-down pass from Zach Wilson to the house for a 50-yard touchdown. The things that Hall is capable of on an NFL field are a rarity, even amongst the world’s greatest athletes. Remember, he’s not even “fully healthy” yet after spending much of 2022 recovering from season-ending knee surgery.

Dalton Kincaid TE - Buffalo Bills

• Dalton Kincaid's rapid rise up the Dynasty value rankings teaches an excellent lesson about when to invest in rookie tight ends. Throughout our lineage at Broto Fantasy, we have always preached that rookie tight ends should be largely avoided at cost during startup and rookie drafts as menial production, although historically expected, will diminish the value of young tight ends well below the initial investment point. Instead, buy into those same rookies after their first few developmental weeks (or seasons) as early-career production is not entirely sticky at the position. Kincaid has proven every one of the above theories correct, needing just two games of positive production to lift him back into the dynasty TE1 tier after falling out of said tier in the previous weeks.

Trey McBride TE - Arizona Cardinals

• Please read the above statements. The Cardinals' tight end entered the NFL with one of the best pure receiving profiles of any tight end in NFL history, joining Vernon Davis, Dallas Goedert, and Dallas Clark as the only tight ends to record an average of >2.0 RYPTPA with a post-draft grade above 95. A down rookie season caused a massive value dip that is now being corrected to adjust for McBride’s true range of outcomes as an elite positional asset.

Kyler Murray QB - Arizona Cardinals

• All it took was one positive report on Kyler Murray’s 2023 season return to shoot the franchise quarterback up the Dynasty market ladder. The Cardinals have officially opened Murray’s 21-day practice window with the hope that their star signal-caller can suit up at some point in the next three games. The market had foolishly undercut Murray’s value while he sat on injured reserve but is rapidly adjusting to account for the perennial top producer's inevitable return.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR - Seattle Seahawks

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a must-target buy candidate for Dynasty managers as the rookie’s usage and development continue to progress linearly. Smith-Njigba has settled in around WR15/40th player overall on consensus trade markets and should continue to increase said value, along with production, as the season continues.

Josh Downs WR - Indianapolis Colts

• Josh Downs represents another of many rookie wideouts that continue to exceed expectations. Downs continues to be a favorite target of now-starter Gardner Minshew while Michael Pittman grows increasingly frustrated with his new role. The rookie wideout is on the rise as markets start to view him in an “undersized” alpha role at some point in his career.

Notable Market Fallers

Deebo Samuel WR - San Francisco 49ers

• Deebo Samuel’s market value has decreased to that of an oft-injured tertiary option on a slowly regressing offense. Potential because Samuel is an oft-injured tertiary option on a slowly regressing offense. Fighting for targets behind Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and the 49ers true alpha wideout, Brandon Aiyuk has caused Samuel to plummet on the value boards.

Jordan Love QB - Green Bay Packers

• Managers were quick to boost Jordan Love’s value based on his early-season successes. Those same managers were just as swift to diminish the value of the Packers quarterback after his recent inefficiencies. The Packers signal-caller has thrown eight interceptions in his last five outings after making it through his first three games with zero turnovers. Love has completed just 135 of his 234 pass attempts (57.7%) with eight interceptions to only 11 touchdowns, averaging a measly 213.1 yards per game and a Quarterback Rating of 78.2.

Christian Watson WR - Green Bay Packers

• Cause and effect. The market cannot justifiably insulate Christian Watson’s value when the Packers quarterback of the future appears wholly incapable of upholding his top weapons.

James Cook RB - Buffalo Bills

• The Bills' confidence in James Cook is laughably limited. The team refuses to allocate a workhorse role to the undersized back despite some impressive per-touch numbers. They recently brought in veteran free agent Leonard Fournette to help bolster the backfield as well while Damien Harris recovers from a neck injury. Cook will continue to be subbed out in any short-yardage situation while seemingly being allergic to red-zone usage.

Jameson Williams WR - Detroit Lions

• Speed kills. It also kills the development of young wide receivers who have no additional skill sets to bolster said speed. Jameson Williams is an expert at running wind sprints along the sidelines. Rarely does that turn into consistent or meaningful fantasy production. The second-year wideout is miles behind his projected development and continues to be a headache for all those who roster the former first-round pick.

Dynasty Waiver Adds

The Dynasty waivers have a wide array of readily available stashes this week. Several league-changing injuries have taken the NFL by storm, creating a mad rush to the wire for Dynasty managers this week. Every player listed below is rostered in less than 65.0% of Dynasty leagues across the Sleeper, MLF, and Fantrax platforms.

Jaren Hall & Nick Mullens QB - Minnesota Viking

• An unfortunate season-ending injury to start quarterback Kirk Cousins has shaken up the Vikings offense in the worst way imaginable. Jaren Hall closed out the game in Week 8 while Nick Mullens remains on injured reserve until Week 10 (at the earliest). Both players deserve speculative adds in superflex leagues but every member of the Vikings offense can be downgraded for the rest of the 2023 season.

Demario Douglas WR - New England Patriots

• With Kendrick Bourne set to miss the remainder of the 2023 season with a torn ACL, rookie wide receiver Demario Douglas finds himself thrust into a wide-open position to take the reigns as the Patriots WR1. Devante Parker and JuJu Smith-Schuster have been non-factors this season. Douglas could develop into a serviceable PPR flex against the right matchups if his role continues to increase.

Khalil Shakir WR - Buffalo Bills

• Khalil Shakir had a career outing against the Buccaneers in Week 8, catching six of six targets for a team-high 92 yards and a WR24 finish. Week 8 also marked the first game in which Shakir received more than 50.0% of the offensive snaps in a game this season. There is still plenty of room for development as the 23-year-old receiver progresses through his second season.

Jameis Winston QB - New Orleans Saints

• Trade rumors surrounding the Saints' backup quarterback are abundant after Kirk Cousins went down with a season-ending Achilles injury. I am always of the belief that all 32 starters along with 32 backup quarterbacks should be rostered in every superflex league. If Winston was named the starter of a new offense, his value would skyrocket.

Taylor Heinicke QB - Atlanta Falcons

• The Falcons may be making a season-long switch at quarterback with Desmond Ridder getting benched for the veteran Taylor Heinicke in Week 8. Heinicke has been a high-upside streaming option against the right matchup throughout his career as a starter and could help uplift the incredible generational talents on the Falcons' roster.

Clayton Tune QB - Arizona Cardinals

• Cardinals head coach Johnathan Gannon announced that if Kyler Murray was unable to start in Week 9 it would be Clayton Tune, not Josh Dobbs who took snaps under center. Dobbs has played well enough to keep the Cardinals in close games but ranks 30th in CPOE this season. Tune may very well be a one-week plug-in for the Cardinals but should be rostered nevertheless considering Murray’s quick return following a career-altering injury. 

Royce Freeman RB - Los Angeles Rams

• For as long as Kyren Williams remains on injured reserve, Royce Freeman should be rostered as a flex-viable running back. His role is succinctly limited as the short-yardage and goalline back but Freeman is getting enough of those touches to warrant a bench stash in all leagues.

Mitch Trubisky QB - Pittsburgh Steelers

• Kenny Pickett may very well suit up for the Steelers next game but a short turnaround on Thursday Night Football makes that a very unlikely outcome. Trubisky shouldn’t be viewed as a must-start streamer but he should be rostered for those in need of QB production in Week 9.

Buy Low

Rashee Rice WR - Kansas City Chiefs.

• Rashee Rice should be a top target in all leagues. In fact, the rookie wideout was a feature candidate in Broto’s weekly Redraft Buy Low and Sell High article, citing incredible peripheral metrics and a linear progression in development and usage for the Chiefs' first-year wideout.

Sell High

Tyler Lockett WR - Seattle Seahawks

• Tyler Lockett remains an elite pass-catcher for the Seahawks, no debating that. With that said Jaxon Smith-Njigba is gearing up to steal the veteran’s lunch money as the future WR1(B) alongside D.K. Metcalf. Managers will never get a higher price on Lockett than right now – one week after leading the team in receiving production.

Weekly Market Evaluation

There comes a juncture in every league where managers have to make a harsh self-evaluation and either move chips into the pot in an attempt to run the tables on a league title, or invest in their future. Week 8 marks a crossroads where several pseudo-contenders are bowing out in an attempt to retool for the following season. These adjustments create excellent buy-and-sell windows on all of your assets. Do not be afraid to make monumental movements in the next few weeks. Conversely, stay vigilant as values are expected to change rapidly yet will always level out once the season commences.

Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.

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By Matt Ward