Week 8 Buy Low and Sell High

With Week 7 of the NFL season in the books, Lead Writer Matt Ward has his eyes on three buy-low targets and three sell-high targets heading into Week 8! Take advantage of your league mates by acquiring star players at their lowest value and dealing away volatile players at their highest values!

BUY LOW

Javonte Williams RB - Denver Broncos

Javonte Williams was always projected to be a second-half league-winning asset as the Broncos' star running back needed additional time to get back into form after suffering a season-ending injury in 2022. It appears as if those aspirations may be coming true as Williams' health and usage are finally meeting an apex that reflects his workhorse role. Williams recorded 15 carries (68.2% Rush Share), four targets (13.8% Target Share), and 31 Snaps (53.0% Snap Share) in Week 7 while no other member of the Broncos backfield played more than 15 snaps (Samaje Perine: 25.0% Snap Share) or had more than five carries (Jaleel McLaughlin: 22.7% Rush Share). It’s tough to buy into the dumpster fire that is the Broncos offense but the healthier Williams gets, the better the team will function as a whole. Furthermore, Williams' upside as a pass-catcher in open space could yield league-winning results down the stretch as the Broncos' running back has commanded at least three targets in five of six games this season despite operating on a pitch count with limited snaps. It appears as if those limitations in opportunity are dissipating as Williams reprises his three-down role while Perine and McLaughlin help spell the star rusher. Even on a bad offense, Williams' talent and potential increase in touches are enough to warrant an investment.

Diontae Johnson WR - Pittsburgh Steelers

Diontae Johnson made his long-awaited return from injured reserve and was immediately inserted into the Steelers offense as a key cog in their sputtering machine. Johnson saw six targets in his return to action, hauling in five for 79 yards with a mere 66.0% snap percentage. His 24.0% weekly target share trailed George Pickens (32.0% Target Share) as the second-year wideout handled a team-high 90.0% snap share. Pickens' presence and positive progression as a lethal deep threat should be viewed as a positive alongside Johnson’s skill set as it will allow the veteran wideout to draw easier coverage assignments. Johnson’s overall usage, target share, and snap percentage will undoubtedly increase as the crafty separator gets back to game speed. Discounts on the Steelers' offense can be had at ease as the team has struggled to find their identity under offensive coordinator Matt Canada. The entry cost for Johnson is well below his suggested range of outcomes as a serviceable WR2 for the remainder of the season.

Rashee Rice WR - Kansas City Chiefs

Rashee Rice is trending up as the Chiefs top wide receiver and number two pass-catcher alongside Travis Kelce. The star tight end is an undeniable force of target-hogging production but the rookie wideout has boasted impressive peripheral stats and respectable fantasy scoring totals over the past two weeks. Amongst 55 wide receivers with more than 30 targets this season, Rice ranks 3rd in YAC/REC (7.5 YDS), 9th in Targets Per Route Run (0.27), 10th in Yards Per Route Run (2.64 YDS), 4th in Red Zone Targets (9). The rookie has increased his route percentages from 23.0% in Week 5, to 50.0% in Week 6 and a season-high 65.0% in Week 7. He averages a target rate of 32.2% (WR4) on 87 total routes this season. Rice has recorded target totals of seven (Week 3), five (Week 4), five (Week 5), four (Week 6), and five (Week 7) in his last five outings while leading all Chiefs wide receivers in total routes and targets in Week 7. Rice also ranks second in Yards Per Route amongst all players from the slot position with 3.28 yards, trailing only Tyreek Hill (3.98 YDS) for the top spot. Hill, Rice, and Ja’Marr Chase are the only players in the NFL to average more than 3.0 Yards Per Route from the slot this season. Lastly, the Chiefs' rising rookie sits sixth amongst all qualified wideouts in fantasy points per route, averaging 0.66 Points/Route Run. Linear increases in usage and development would undeniably lead to a sensational ceiling for the Chiefs' newest rookie receiver. Get in on the ground floor before the price skyrockets.

SELL HIGH

D’Onta Foreman RB - Chicago Bears

D’Onta was thrust into a leading role for the Bears in Week 6 and Week 7 while Justin Fields (Thumb/Hand), Khalil Herbert (Ankle), and Roschon Johnson (Concussion) watched from the sidelines. With the Bears' top-three leading rushers sidelined, Foreman had a monstrous performance in his last rushing for 89 yards on 16 attempts (5.6 YPC) with two touchdowns, adding three receptions on five targets for 31 yards and an additional score. His 31.5 Half-PPR fantasy points marked the highest total of any running back in Week 7 as well as the fourth-highest total of any active player that week. The selling window for Foreman is wide open as running back inconsistencies and injuries plague the fantasy football landscape. Scoring three touchdowns helped Foreman set the second-highest scoring total of his six-year career. Safe to say a repeat performance from the journeyman running back is unlikely. Furthermore, rookie running back Roschon Johnson is finally trending in the right direction after a scary concussion has left him sidelined since Thursday Night Football in Week 5. Johnson’s presence will likely open up a committee, limiting Foreman’s upside as the lead back. Khalil Herbert could also be back in the lineup as early as Week 9, creating an impossible-to-predict timeshare between three eerily similar running backs with menial receiving upside. Justin Fields will likely be sidelined through Week 8 (at minimum), leaving Tyson Bagent to start yet again. Although the undrafted rookie quarterback was able to secure the win, his presence behind center greatly hinders an already struggling offense. Conversely, Fields insertion into the lineup will minimize several high-value rushing attempts as the scrambling quarterback vultures opportunities. It is highly unlikely that Foreman will maintain a meaningful role upon the return of the Bears aforementioned running backs, leaving the sixth-year veteran as a low-end handcuff stash rather than a viable starting option. Managers should look to profit in any way possible before the Bears regain their core players.

James Cook RB - Buffalo Bills

The moment that the Bills start treating James Cook like a true RB1 is the moment I will stop attempting to sell the undersized running back. Until then, Cook remains an obvious sell-high candidate for his menial usage and inconsistent scoring totals. Through seven weeks, Cook has finished as an RB1 on two occasions (Week 2: RB11, Week 7: RB8). The second-year back has finished as the RB30 or lower in three games (Week 1: RB30, Week 5: RB40, Week 6: RB31) with an RB18 finish sandwiched in between (Week 3). Every defense that Cook has faced this season, save for his Week 3 matchup against the Commanders, ranks in the top 15 in PPG allowed to opposing running backs (Jets, Raiders, Dolphins, Jaguars, Giants, Patriots). Six of the Bills’ next eight opponents rank in the bottom 15 in PPG allowed to opposing running backs (Buccaneers, Bengals, Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys, Chargers) with a positive matchup against the Broncos mixed in. Cook’s inability to capitalize on cupcake-soft matchups and the peak ceiling of a low-end RB1 is certainly cause for concern when viewing the Bills' second-half season schedule. His replacement-level usage is an even bigger concern. He is averaging a 56.5% snap share (RB23) and a 59.2% opportunity share (RB26) with only nine red zone touches (RB33) and two goalline carries (RB33) across seven games. Cook averages 0.82 Points Per Opportunity (RB29) with 15.5 opportunities per game while the husk of Latavius Murray continues to eat into his opportunity share, especially in the red zone and short-yardage situations. The trade market may foolishly value Cook as a fringe RB1 despite the overwhelming amount of evidence that suggests otherwise. Find the bullish Bills fan in your league chat and capitalize on Cook’s early-season hype.

Courtland Sutton WR - Denver Broncos

One can only invest so much into the dreadfully inconsistent Broncos offense. After buying into a piece with unequivocally more upside, we are looking to sell another that is uninspiring and average. Courtland Sutton is quietly enjoying the best fantasy season of his career since breaking out as a second-year wideout with extreme promise. The Broncos receiver is currently averaging 10.9 Half-PPR PPG as the WR20 overall with his highest-scoring output coming in Week 7 against the Packers with 16.6 points (WR8). Even at Sutton’s peak, he is a low-level WR2 with minimal week-winning upside. The continued development of Marvin Mims and the presence of Jerry Jeudy greatly caps Sutton’s overall ceiling as the veteran wideout has tallied more than five receptions in just two of his seven games this season. Managers are far too often willing to hold low-ceiling players for a “safe” weekly floor of production when the ultimate goal should be increasing the overall value of your roster above all competition. Plugging Sutton into the Flex for his weekly 10.9 Half-PPR PPG is fine and dandy if you're content with mediocrity. It is becoming increasingly difficult to upsell members of the Broncos offense–understandably so. Sutton’s Week 7 WR8 performance may be just enough to entice desperate managers into a hapless swap where one can upgrade on the veteran receiver’s middling averages.

Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.

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By Matt Ward