Week 9 Buy Low and Sell High

With Week 8 of the NFL season in the books, Lead Writer Matt Ward has his eyes on three buy-low targets and three sell-high targets heading into Week 9! Take advantage of your league mates by acquiring star players at their lowest value and dealing away volatile players at their highest values!

BUY LOW

D.K. Metcalf (WR) - Seattle Seahawks

D.K. Metcalf was forced to miss the first game of his NFL career in Week 7, leading the way for breakout performances from rookie wideouts Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jake Bobo. The Seahawks' muscled-up WR1 was able to return in Week 8, laboring through his injuries whilst the aforementioned youngsters each found the endzone for the second time in as many games. Tyler Lockett also outpaced his receiver running mate, catching eight passes for 81 yards and one touchdown. Lockett, Smith-Njigba, and Bobo have combined for five receiving touchdowns in the last two games while Metcalf has just two scores this season, averaging 13.4 PPG (WR24). His low-end WR2 numbers have left a bitter taste in the mouths of fantasy managers salivating over playoff spots. Despite the recent surge in popularity surrounding his first-year teammates, the uber-athletic Metcalf remains poised to dominate the Seahawks' usage through the air. Week 8 may have delivered an underwhelming box score for Metcalf but the star wideout still managed to command 14 of the team’s 37 pass attempts for a 37.8% target share while playing just 78.0% of the team’s offensive snaps (45). The ever-growing development of the Seahawks' tertiary weapons should not shy managers away from an elite target earner with a resume of PPG totals much higher than his current ranking.

Tee Higgins (WR) - Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals' offense has finally found a rhythm after sputtering their way through the first four games of the 2023 season. Unfortunately, Tee Higgins is still moseying around trying to catch pace while the rest of his teammates gear up for a second-half surge. Fear not. Positive regression appears imminent for the big-bodied wideout. Higgins is averaging just 8.8 PPG as the WR58 Overall. He has struggled through injury, poor quarterback play, and low snap counts throughout the season. Several narratives need to be addressed when assessing Higgins as a buy-low candidate. In Week 1, he received eight targets, playing 95.0% of the offensive snaps but caught none as the Bengals offense failed to score a single touchdown. An injured Joe Burrow passed for just 82 total yards against the Browns on opening day. Higgins bounced back in Week 2 against the Ravens, finishing as the WR4 and the only bright light on an otherwise darkened start to the Bengals season. The third-year wideout got hurt in Week 3 against the Rams and would see his snap percentages dip below 60.0% in Week 4 and Week 6 with a missed game against the Cardinals in Week 5 sandwiched in between. Week 8 marked a small bounceback for the wideout as Higgins finished with five receptions on six targets for 69 yards (WR36). We barely have a two-game sample size of expected normality for this offense as Burrow and Higgins finally appear to be back to full health after the Bengals' Week 7 bye. Higgins has never finished below WR28 in any of his three seasons in the NFL. His snap percentages will undoubtedly regress toward his career norm as the season progresses with his production hopefully following suit. Higgins may not be the league-winning asset we had all hoped but he is still valued well below even his lowest range of outcomes.

Tony Pollard (RB) - Dallas Cowboys

After helping several fantasy managers carry home the hardware in 2022, Tony Pollard is having trouble carrying the load in 2023. Pollard’s sensational RB8 PPG finish in 2022 as the Cowboys backup appears a far distant memory as the shifty rusher is averaging just 14.6 PPG in 2023 (RB14). His current PPG ranking is where the negatives start and end yet the trade market is treating Pollard like a second-rate asset after a couple of lackadaisical performances. A per-touch maven at every point of his career, Pollard’s efficiency has understandably dwindled amidst his increase in usage. Nevertheless, his opportunity share and propensity for blowup games are more than enough to ignore regression in a few metrics. Pollard is commanding a 13.4% target share (RB6) with a 69.4% snap share (RB9) and 17.2 weighted opportunities per game (RB5). He has 108 carries (RB10), 26 receptions (RB6), and 30 targets (RB10). Pollard ranks second amongst all players in red zone opportunities (38) but has only two touchdowns this season (RB23). Scoring regression is almost a guarantee as the Cowboys' offense has still yet to reach its full potential and Pollard’s nose for the end zone has been well-documented throughout his career. A multi-touchdown game at any point in the season would place Pollard firmly in a spot to meet his projected scoring totals whilst reminding everyone of the type of league-winning upside he brings to the table. I suggest managers get in at a reduced cost before the Cowboys remember how talented their top backfield weapon truly is.

SELL HIGH

Cooper Kupp (WR) - Los Angeles Rams

I feel it pertinent to make a disclaimer when advising managers to sell high on Cooper Kupp. If there is not a beneficial avenue wherein you are getting a top-dollar return based on name alone, then do not partake in trade discussions for the Rams' future Hall of Famer. Conversely, if desperate managers are looking to get greedy with assumptions that Kupp will return to his world-beater form, take advantage. Kupp should be moved for a league-winning asset at a scarce position and nothing more. With all of that said, it appears time to pivot off the veteran wideout. Since returning to action in Week 7, Kupp has had two WR1 finishes (Week 5: WR12, Week 6: WR3) and two finishes below WR48 (Week 7: WR49, Week 8 WR75). The first two games in question were against the Eagles and the Cardinals–two defenses who combine to allow 236.3 yards and 33.7 points per game to opposing wideouts. The following two games culminated in the worst consecutive outings of Kupp’s career against the Cowboys and Steelers–two defenses who combine to allow just 192.2 yards and 26.8 points per game to opposing receivers. It was assumed that Kupp’s presence would ultimately hinder the target totals and production ceiling of unsuspecting breakout rookie receiver Puka Nacua. Those sentiments could not be further from the truth. Nacua has increased his target percentage from 32.5% during Week 1-4 to 36.6% upon Kupp’s return. On the flip side, Kupp just dropped two consecutive outings with fewer than 30 receiving yards, marking the first time the star wideout has accomplished the lowly feat at any point during his career. Furthermore, the potential absence of Matthew Stafford (Hand/Wrist) would greatly hinder an offense that has begun to sputter after over-performing for the first few weeks of the 2023 season. Things are trending down, not up for the veteran receiver. He is still an elite asset and should be treated as so but a return to his previous earth-shattering form appears unlikely at this point.

Rashid Shaheed (WR) - New Orleans Saints

As the resident Saints diehard here at Broto Fantasy it pains and delights me to highlight Rashid Shaheed as a “Sell High” candidate this week. Acknowledging his incredible Week 8 outing undeniably brings joy while simultaneously understanding that the speedy wideout will likely never reach these heights again, justifying a lucrative trade pivot, causes sadness. Shaheed had a career outing against the Colts in Week 8, catching three of three targets for 153 yards and one touchdown in a Randy Moss-esque performance that saw the Saints wideout lead all players that week in receiving yards while needing just three touches and three opportunities to do so. Shaheed also played just 27.0% of the offensive snaps, earning less playing time than Chris Olave (49 Snaps), Michael Thomas (44 Snaps), and surprisingly even Lynn Bowden Jr. (24 Snaps). Although his three targets led to incredible output, it represents a mere 10.3% target total for the week. Shaheed is simply not an every-down player, earning a mere 12.5% target share on 66.0% of the offensive snaps this season. His boom-or-bust profile leaves managers in a tough position of predicting positive matchups – an errand that often leads to negative outcomes anyway as the Saints have yet to find a consistent role for Shaheed in the offense. Michael Thomas appears to be a better short-yardage threat even in the twilight hours of his career. Alvin Kamara dominates all touches near the line of scrimmage as a crucial dual-threat offensive weapon. Chris Olave has undeniably disappointed but remains the Saints' focal point through the air and one of the best deep threats in the entire NFL. Shaheed’s skill set and role lend for opportunities on singularly designed plays in which the offense hopes for broken coverage over the top, springing their speedy sprinter for a deep target. Managers should not expect that role to change any time soon, even after Shaheed’s career-best performance.

Drake London (WR) - Atlanta Falcons

Several proprietors of positivity believe that the Falcons' switch from Desmond Ridder to Taylor Heinecke will create increased production for the pass-catchers as the backup journeyman has supported a slew of high-value fantasy receivers throughout his tenure in the NFL. I am much more cynical and believe that Arthur Smith is a glutton for incompetence and idiocracy as he attempts to galaxy-brain his way through a borderline archaic playbook that belongs in the archives of the Smithsonian as opposed to in the hands of an NFL play-caller. The confidence in Drake London to one day break free of the shackles that bind him to the Falcons' current offense remains high. Conversely, my expectations for every member of this offense (save for Bijan Robinson) are increasingly reduced after watching their head coach make conscious and concerted efforts to limit the production of his generational weapons on a weekly basis. The only thing that would get me to buy back into this Falcons offense in 2023 would be a mid-season firing of their silver-spooned skipper. Until then, I will continue to attempt to upgrade on any semblance of peak production from this offense considering the highly unlikely scenario that Smith gets canned. London’s team-high seven targets, five receptions, and 55 receiving yards coupled with Heinecke’s presumed starting position may be just enough to entice a trade from a manager clinging onto the same hope that was once ignited in the infancy of the 2023 season.

Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.

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By Matt Ward