SLEEPERS
QB: Geno Smith - Seattle Seahawks
Geno Smith was an absolute stallion in the 2022 season. They wrote him off but he didn’t write back and he finished the year as the QB5 overall. Things have slowed down for him in his 2023 campaign but he still has shown flashes of his upside. Smith has had 3 weekly positional finishes inside the top 17, including one QB8 performance. The Seahawks signal-caller averaged over 315+ passing yards in these games, highlighting his ability to sling it when called upon. The downside for Smith’s fantasy value has been his regression in the touchdown department to begin the year. Kenneth Walker has been a touchdown goblin, scoring six on the ground in his last four games. His nose for the end zone has put a damper on the Seahawks' aerial attack, limiting their passing attempts inside the red zone and their number of passing touchdowns this season to five in five games. It’s hard to be a consistent fantasy quarterback without hitting paydirt. This week the Seahawks (3-2) have a juicy matchup against the Cardinals (1-5) lined up, painting the perfect scene for Smith and company to make a big splash. The Cardinals' defense has been abysmal against quarterbacks in every outing. They are currently the number one defense in True Matchup Rank, allowing 108.0% Points Over Average to the position. Gunslingers who face the Cardinals are averaging 21.0 PPG, setting Smith up for a big bounce-back performance. If you require a quarterback, Smith is the premier sleeper option of Week 7.
Boyd Armstrong
RB: D’Onta Foreman - Chicago Bears
D’Onta Foreman finds himself atop an injury-riddled depth chart as the Bears backfield has whittled away in the previous weeks. Khalil Herbert was placed on injured reserve following the Bears Week 5 win over the Commanders on Thursday night football and rookie running back Roschon Johnson has yet to practice from a concussion suffered in the same game. Foreman received his first official start of the season in Week 6, posting respectable rushing totals of 65 yards on 15 attempts (4.3 YPC) while catching his lone target while the Bears operated without Justin Fields (thumb) for most of the contest. The team is expected to be without their franchise quarterback once again in Week 7 with undrafted rookie quarterback Tyson Bagent getting the start. Bagent will likely operate in a game-manager role with increased work falling on the Bears' running backs. The Raiders (3-3) travel to the Bears (1-5) home turf with Vegas betting lines favoring the away team by a mere 2.5 points. The projected Over/Under total for the game sits at a lowly 37.5 points, suggesting an old-school slugfest in the trenches as both offenses lean heavily on the ground game with neither being able to find success through the air. The Raiders' defense has been solid to start the season but has shown increased susceptibility to the run, allowing 121.7 (21st) rushing yards per game. They rank 11th in True Matchup Rank to the position, giving up 18.7 PPG to opposing running backs, 14.0 PPG of which have come via rushing alone (5th in True Matchup Rank/58.0% Points Over Average). Foreman is by no means an exciting option but the veteran thumper should have plenty of utility as a mid-range RB2 this week.
Matt Ward
WR: Jaxon Smith-Njigba - Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks' first-round rookie wideout has been somewhat disappointing this season despite a consistent target share and succinct role within the Seahawks offense. Unfortunately, that role is succinctly limited as Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been relegated to a short-yardage target. He has yet to surpass 50 yards in any contest despite seeing five or more targets in four of five games this season. With that said, Smith-Njigba appears to be trending in the right direction for a second-half season breakout. Following the Seahawks Week 5 bye, the rookie wideout saw his snap percentage jump from 52.7% to 70.3% with his route participation increasing from 78.6% to 88.7% where he had yet to earn more than 65.0% in any games prior. Smith-Njigba has also earned at least one red zone target in three of his last four games but is still yearning for his first NFL score. All of the aforementioned positives point toward progression for the young receiver. Furthermore, the Seahawks may have no choice but to speed up their rookie’s development and usage as star wideout DK Metcalf has yet to practice this week, leaving his availability for Week 7 in serious jeopardy. Every receiver on the offense should get a significant bump in projections as the Seahawks (3-2) host a lowly Cardinals (1-5) defense in a game that favors the home team by 7.5 points. The Cardinals offense has been surprisingly competent this season, keeping games close while averaging 20.5 PPG (20th). Unfortunately for their fans, they have also conceded 243.3 passing yards (22nd), 133.3 rushing yards (24th), 399.7 total yards (29th), and 27.0 PPG (27th) to opposing offenses on average. The Cardinals rank 1st in True Matchup Rank to the quarterback position, allowing 115.0% over the expected average of passing production alone while also ranking 1st in True Matchup Rank to wide receivers, giving up 31.2 PPG with a Points Over Average of 52.0%. Even if Metcalf goes, the rookie wideout deserves a look in your flex spot for a potential increase in production against the league’s most fantasy-friendly passing defense.
Matt Ward
TE: Luke Musgrave - Green Bay Packers
Luke Musgrave is a readily available tight end streamer with low rostership percentages of just 27.0% despite some solid outings so far this season. The Packers rookie gets one of the best matchups this week as the Packers (2-3) travel to face the Broncos (1-5) – a defense that ranks 6th in True Matchup Rank to the tight end position. The Broncos have been beaten by every skill position in a myriad of ways, opening the door for all members of the Packers to benefit against the league’s worst defense. Streaming the tight end position continues to be downright frustrating but attacking players like Musgrave in positive matchups gives managers the best position to succeed. The second-round tight end is being targeted on 19.3% of his total routes, averaging the 12th most fantasy points per route run, according to PFF. Rookies, especially at this position, are expectedly inconsistent but Musgrave has shown that he can draw a respectable target share, earning four or more targets in three of his five starts including a seven-target outing in his last game. Musgrave has a decent floor with a boosted ceiling if he can exploit this beautiful matchup. As far as available desperation plays go, Musgrave has one of the best chances at a finish inside of the TE1 tier.
Themi Michalakis
BUSTS
QB: Kirk Cousins - Minnesota Vikings
Kirk Cousins has snapped back to reality after an explosively hot start to the 2023 season. Across his first three games “Captain Kirk” averaged over 24+ PPG and was a surefire QB1 option for managers. His last three starts were a far cry away from his early-season successes as Cousins averaged a pathetic 13.4 PPG and finished outside the top 20 quarterbacks twice. He’s coming off his worst performance of the season, where he put up 8.7 fantasy points (QB25) and was nothing but a detriment to lineups everywhere. The effect that the loss of Justin Jefferson has on the Vikings cannot be understated. Taking away the best wide receiver in football will have an understandably drastic impact on all members of the offense, especially the quarterback. Unfortunately for those who roster Cousins, Jefferson is not returning anytime soon as the team will be without their top option yet again. To make matters worse the Vikings (2-4) are slated to face off against an angry 49ers (5-1) squad who boast a high-powered defense that has been shutting down quarterbacks week after week. The 49ers are the 7th toughest defense in True Matchup Rank, allowing a negative (-)17.0% Points Over Average to opposing quarterbacks. A difficult opponent paired with a drastic decrease in receiving talent has me avoiding Cousins while pivoting elsewhere for quarterback production this week.
Boyd Armstrong
RB: Najee Harris - Pittsburgh Steelers
The fade of Najee Harris continues for Week 7 and forever as 2023’s biggest bust in the RB1 tier draws an increasingly difficult matchup in his upcoming contest. The Steelers (3-2) are on the road against the Rams (3-3) following their Week 6 bye. Vegas betting lines favor the hometown Rams by 3.5 points with a projected Over/Under scoring total at 43.5 suggesting a potential play-from-behind game for the Steelers offense. Harris’ once league-leading opportunity share has regressed to that of a committee plodder, limited to early-down work on a dreadfully ineffective offense led by the abhorrently incompetent play-calling of offensive coordinator Matt Canada. Harris is locked in a timeshare with Jaylen Warren – a vastly more efficient and effective running back. The duo has split usage all season with Harris handling a mere 53.1% snap share (161 Snaps), 65.0% rush share (63 Carries), and 5.5% target share (9 Targets) compared to Warren’s 45.2% snap share (137 Snaps), 35.0% rush share (34 Carries) and 15.2% target share (25 Targets). Warren (21 REC/166 REC YDS) has far outproduced Harris (5 REC/37 REC YDS) as a pass-catcher and averages just 24.6 fewer rushing yards per game despite 29 fewer carries on the season. Harris’ utility as a pass-catcher has dissipated into nothing and his matchup against the Rams defensive front should strike fear in the heart of every manager desperate enough to start him. The Rams are allowing just 341.3 (12th) total yards and 19.5 (10th) points per game to opposing offenses. They rank 27th in True Matchup Rank to the running back position allowing a combined 14.7 PPG (-28.0% Points Over Average) with just 11.0 PPG of rushing production (-22.0% Points Over Average) and 3.7 PPG of receiving production (-24.0% Points Over Average). Harris has been nothing shy of a perennial disappointment since his rookie season. Managers expecting a miraculous turnaround in Week 7 are likely going to face the music of frustratingly menial production yet again.
Matt Ward
WR: Michael Pittman - Indianapolis Colts
Michael Pittman deserves all the praise for continuously overcoming expectations this season. His stellar start to the 2023 campaign has the Colts wideout sitting as the WR18 in PPG. Unfortunately for his fantasy managers, regression appears imminent (at least for one week) as the Gardner Minshew-led Colts (3-3) host the unstoppable force that is the Myles Garrett-led Browns (3-2) defense. The home team finds themselves as three-point underdogs with a middling Over/Under scoring total projected at 40.5 points. The Browns have grounded the air attack of every opponent this season, allowing a stifling 121.4 passing yards (1st) and 15.4 points per game (5th) to their opposing offenses. The Browns defense currently sits 32nd amongst all teams in True Matchup Rank and fantasy points allowed to wideouts, giving up a lowly 13.6 PPG (-43.0% Points Over Average) to the position while allowing a mere 8.4 PPG (-8.0% Points Over Average) of passing production to quarterbacks. Minshew is certainly a serviceable backup but struggled mightily against an average Jaguars defense last week and is unlikely to overcome the stout defensive matchup on the docket for Week 7. Pittman should be downgraded from his usual high-end WR2 ranking to a desperation Flex with a limited ceiling in a low-scoring affair.
Matt Ward
TE: Tyler Higbee - Los Angeles Rams
Tyler Higbee’s rostership percentages remain shockingly high as the Rams tight end is currently on 62.0% of fantasy squads despite his regressing involvement in the offense. Higbee has plateaued from his respectable averages, ranking TE17 in both total and average fantasy points this season. The Rams tight end was upholding low-range TE1 numbers as the TE9 through Week 1 to Week 4 but failed to break double-digit points in any of those outings with his best performances coming against two easily exploitable assignments in the Bengals (2nd in True Matchup Rank) and the Colts (13th in True Matchup Rank). The Rams offense has rapidly changed since those early-season heights. Higbee’s target share dropped from 15.66% to 9.84% once Cooper Kupp returned in Week 5. The veteran tight end posted finishes of TE27 and TE29 during the last two weeks with a healthy Kupp in the lineup. The Rams' passing offense is a hyper-focused funnel that bottlenecks targets to their top weapons (Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua). Higbee hasn’t seen more than three targets since Kupp’s return and now draws a difficult matchup as the Steelers (3-2) travel west to face the Rams (3-3) at home. The Steelers sit 30th in True Matchup Rank to tight ends, allowing the lowest DVOA of any team to the position this season. It’s evident that Higbee’s already shaky role has dwindled yet his rostership remains well above his suggested range of outcomes against a near-insurmountable matchup. Higbee is bordering the status of a droppable asset and should be nowhere near your starting lineups this week.
Themi Michalakis
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For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.