Clay's Corner: Week 7 DFS Plays

Week 6 was full of disappointment and a lack of high end fantasy scoring. Hopefully, week 7 is the exact opposite. Although it was not my best week, I still identified plenty of strong plays for Week 6. Let’s take a quick look back.

QB: Jared Goff- 25.42

RB: Travis Etienne- 23.3, Raheem Mostert- 37.2, Kyren Williams- 24.8 

WR: Tyreek Hill- 31.3, Adam Thielen- 31.5, Cooper Kupp- 30.8, 

TE: Evan Engram - 11.1

D/ST: ATL D/ST- 5

My best GPP lineup finished 3rd out of 28 entries in a qualifier contest, here is the lineup:

QB: Jared Goff- 25.42

RB: Raheem Mostert- 37.2

RB: Chris Brooks- 2.8

WR: Adam Thielen- 31.5

WR: Marquise Brown- 7.4

WR: Josh Downs- 13.1

TE: Evan Engram- 11.1

FLEX: Cooper Kupp- 30.8

D/ST: Miami D/ST- 5

For a total of 187.42 points!

Time to identify more winners in this bye week filled and injury-riddled Week 7! Let’s win some money!

Week 7 DraftKings slate

Games to target:

1. DET @ BAL – 41.5 O/U

Implied totals: DET 19.25; BAL 22.25

2. ARI @ SEA – 44.5 O/U

Implied totals: ARI 18.5; SEA 26

3. LAC @ KC – 49.5 O/U

Implied totals: LAC 21.75; KC 27.75

4. PIT @ LAR- 43.5 O/U

Implied totals: PIT 20.25; LAR 23.25

Top Cash Plays: 

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert ($8,000)

Herbert is a strong cash play for Week 7. He has scored 20 or more points in every game this season. The reason Herbert has had so much success through the air is the Charger’s inability to run the ball, as evidenced by their 18th overall rank in total rushing yards and 22nd in yards/attempt, both of which are much lower if you remove the Week 1 running extravaganza that looks like a complete outlier. Fortunately, Herbert has been able to pickup the slack, and it’s shown in his numbers:

• 1st in PPG

• 6th in yards/gm at 266.6

• 9th in True Throw Value (TTV) and Pass TDs

• 4th in rushing TDs

Paying up for QB isn’t ideal, however, Herbert has a strong floor and high ceiling which is worth his price in Week 7. 

Jared Goff ($6,400)

Goff is an excellent play for cash in Week 7. Here is how good Goff has been in 2023:

• 10th in pass attempts

• 4th in completion percentage 69.5%

• 7th in True Throw Value (TTV)

• 5th in passing yards/gm 269.7

• 6th in PPR PPG

• 6th in rushing TDs

• 5th in passing TDs

The Lions offense should have to pass more with RB David Montgomery out. Do not worry about the Ravens defense, the toughest QB they’ve faced is QB CJ Stroud in his 1st career game and a banged up QB Joe Burrow in Week 2. Trust Goff and OC Ben Johnson to help you in cash in Week 7. 

Other options: If you really want to squeeze savings at the QB spot, Jordan Love ($5,800) playing the hapless Broncos defense is a good choice. The Broncos are the 5th best matchup for opposing QBs.  

Running Back

Josh Jacobs ($7,400) 

Quietly, Josh Jacobs has ascended to 2nd in WOPR (weighted opportunity rating) among RBs. Jacobs is 1st in targets, receiving yards, and target share (17.9), 2nd in receptions and 4th in True Target Value (TTaV). Jacobs gets to take advantage of the best matchup for opposing receiving RBs in the Chicago Bears. A massive game is not out of the question.

Kenneth Walker ($7,000) 

Walker is currently 9th in PPR PPG among RBs and 6th in red zone opportunities this season. The Cardinals are the 5th best matchup for opposing RBs per Broto’s True Matchup Rank. Walker has also solidified his floor value by garnering 3 or more targets in three out of five games this season. Trust Walker to smash in cash for you.  

Rachaad White ($5,100)

This is a “don’t watch the game” type of play. White is purely a volume play. White has had double digit carries and three or more targets in every game except one this year. What’s more encouraging for White is that despite his subpar play, no other RB has stepped up and taken work from him. Plug your nose and White into your cash lineups for Week 7.  

Wide Receivers

High End  

Mike Evans ($7,100)

Since we’re paying up for RBs we need to save some salary at WR and Evans fits the bill. Evans has averaged a 5/82.2/0.4 line against the Falcons since 2020, the same timeframe that Terrell has been with the Falcons. On the season, Evans is 17th in points per opportunity excluding TDs, 10th in receiving TDs, and 13th in target share at 25.2%. QB Baker Mayfield only has eyes for Mike Evans and should target him heavily against the Falcons in Week 7.

Marquise Brown ($5,300) 

Brown ranks 9th in WOPR this season, thanks in part to his 30% target share and 44.2% air yards share. With no one in sight to infringe upon his volume, Brown makes a strong cash play in Week 7 against the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks rate as the 3rd best matchup for opposing WRs, meaning Brown should have a productive day. 

Curtis Samuel ($4,000)

Samuel has truly integrated into the Commanders offense the past three weeks. Over that span he has had 17 receptions on 19 targets to go along with 158 receiving yards and 2 receiving TDs. Salaries are tight this week and Samuel can ease some of that burden in Week 7. 

Tight End 

Tight end is brutal this week. So let me help you navigate and avoid the landmines.  

Kyle Pitts ($4,000)/Jonnu Smith ($3,600)

The Falcons are using their TEs heavily. Pitts and Smith combined for a 35% target share in Week 6. Both Pitts and Smith rank top- 14 in WOPR (Pitts is 3rd and Smith is 14th) and they should continue to help move the Falcons offense. 

Luke Musgrave ($3,300)

Musgrave is a nice value on the Week 7 slate. If we throw out his Week 4 performance related to a concussion, Musgrave had 15 targets over two games. Musgrave is sporting a healthy aDOT of 7.7 and is 9th in points per opportunity excluding TDs (PPOxTD). Week 7 against the toothless Broncos defense could be a breakout week for Musgrave. The Broncos rank as the 6th best matchup for opposing TEs.  

D/ST 

Cleveland Browns ($3,300) 

QB Gardner Minshew struggled against the Jaguars in Week 6 with three INTs, three sacks and a fumble. Now, Minshew gets to face the Browns defense, who rank 6th in pressure rate. Expect another long, turnover-filled day for Minshew and company. 

Favorite stacks:

1. Jared Goff + Amon-Ra St. Brown with Zay Flowers bring back. A Lions single stack is perfectly fine as well.  

2. Justin Herbert + Keenan Allen + Gerald Everett with Rashee Rice/Isiah Pacheco bring back. I expect this game to be popular, however there are plenty of ways to be unique. 

3. Patrick Mahomes + Travis Kelce/Rashee Rice with Keenan Allen/Joshua Palmer/Austin Ekeler bring back. 

4. Josh Dobbs + Marquise Brown + Trey McBride with Kenneth Walker/Tyler Lockett/DK Metcalf bring back. 

GPP Plays:

Quarterbacks High End

Lamar Jackson ($7,600)

Jackson is always a threat to break a slate. He has multiple games of 2 rushing TDs as well as one game with over 100 yards rushing. The Lions potent offense could force Jackson to rush early and often to keep pace. 

I also like my cash QBs as GPP options for Week 7.

Running Back 

Isiah Pacheco ($7,000)  

Even though the Chargers stymied RB Tony Pollard in Week 6, the Chargers still rate as the 7th best matchup for opposing RBs. Lately the Chiefs offense has run through Pacheco, which has allowed him to rank 7th in red zone opportunities and 9th in rushing TDs. With the Chiefs passing offense being a popular play this week, I expect Pacheco to have lower-rostership, making him an interesting GPP play for Week 7. 

Jaleel McLaughlin ($5,000) 

With McLaughlin getting more work of late, Samaje Perine has been getting phased out, and the Broncos are down to a 2-man committee, McLaughlin and Javonte Williams. Over the past three weeks, McLaughlin is averaging 3 targets per game and has rushed for 50 or more yards in two of those three games. McLaughlin increased his snap share from 33% in Weeks 4 & 5 to 40% in Week 6 while Perine’s snap share fell to 17% in Week 6. McLaughlin has had a knack for big plays, which could be bountiful in a gpp lineup.

Wide Receivers 

Zay Flowers ($5,700) 

Flowers’ 29.4% target share and 28.6% air yards share puts him 21st in WOPR among all WRs. Even though the Ravens offense has been a disappointment to start the season, Flowers has still come up big. In an up-tempo game with the Detroit Lions in Week 7, Flowers strong target share and 4th overall rank in red zone targets should show up in Week 7.  

DK Metcalf ($6,800)/ Tyler Lockett ($6,000) 

RB Kenneth Walker should be chalky this week, making this a leverage play. Metcalf and Lockett had a combined 18 targets in Week 6 which should bode well for them in Week 7 as the Cardinals rank as the #1 matchup for opposing WRs.  

Tight Ends 

I am comfortable using my cash TEs recommendations for GPPs, however, I have one more option for this week.  

TE Michael Mayer ($2,700) 

Mayer had a career-high 6 targets in Week 6. Mayer seems to have upended TE Austin Hooper, out targeting him and out-snapping him in both Weeks 5 & 6. The Raiders rookie TE gets a nice matchup against the Bears who rank as the 10th best matchup for opposing TEs. At his cost, he does not need to do much to pay off.

D/ST 

See cash section.  

Lone Ranger (sub $5,000 player that can score over 10 fantasy points) 

KJ Osborn fell just short of 10 points at 8.8 however, Josh Downs came through with 13 points, bringing me to 5-7 on the season. Time to get over .500!  

WR Rashee Rice ($4,400), WR Josh Downs ($4,500), Curtis Samuel ($4,000) 

Rice leads all KC WRs in target share on the season at 12.2%. The Chargers offense can score points and QB Patrick Mahomes is going to have to throw the ball to someone other than TE Travis Kelce to keep pace. 

I’m going back to the well with Josh Downs. He’s been a favorite target of QB Gardner Minshew and has a 18.5% target share on the season. Downs should get peppered with targets again when the Colts face the vaunted Cleveland Browns defense in Week 7.  

I mentioned Curtis Samuel in the cash section and believe he’ll crack the 10 point threshold in Week 7.  

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By Clayton Jones aka @FF_Pulse_88