Broto Bets Week 7

A 2-3 week puts us down 2.275 units with two big favorites failing to win and ruining the teasers. It would be impossible to expect every leg to hit every week and the picks have understandably regressed a bit to a more reasonable hit rate. The season total is still positive so far and Week 7 looks a lot more exciting. 

2023 Total: 17-10, +4.035u 

Teasers: 

All teasers are 2-team/6-point teasers at one unit unless otherwise noted. Make sure to only bet teasers at -120 or better. 

Detroit Lions (+3) @ Baltimore Ravens O/U: 42.5 

San Francisco 49ers (-7) @ Minnesota Vikings O/U: 44 

Themi’s Teaser: Lions +9, 49ers -1 

The Ravens haven't had a real challenge this year. They nearly fell to the Bengals while Joe Burrow was still clearly struggling with his calf injury but have otherwise outright won or thrown away games against lesser opponents due to very fixable issues. The Ravens should still be doing a lot better on offense than they currently are. The team has been quite successful as a whole, ranking 10th in DVOA but they could be doing so much more with Todd Monken as the new offensive coordinator. They’re still very good on the ground but are about average when passing. The Ravens don’t need to be the best team in the league in every facet to win games and luckily their defense has remained elite, rising to 2nd in DVOA. The Lions, however, are one of the most well-rounded teams in the league. While not having a great schedule either, they have beaten up on their inferior opponents while also beating the Chiefs in Week 1 and only falling to the Seahawks in OT as the only team to remain undefeated in regulation this season. Week 7 will be their biggest defensive test yet but they put up at least 20 points in their wins over Kansas City and Tampa Bay, ranked 9th and 10th in defense respectively. The Lions themselves rank 3rd on defense while also featuring a top-5 offense. Amon-Ra St. Brown returned from injury this past week to deliver a 12/124 performance while also scoring a touchdown. The loss of running back David Montgomery will be a massively missed cog in the machine but Jahmyr Gibbs should return and handle the workload. The Ravens are slightly more susceptible to the run and the Lions have a top offensive line making this a good matchup for Gibbs exploit. Offensive success will be hard to find for either team but the Lions have ways to find an edge. I like the Lions to win this game straight up but they’re also incredibly teasable in a game where the point total keeps dropping. The Ravens will have to show us something truly special to win this game by double digits. 

The public perception of the 49ers and Brock Purdy will dip significantly after their first loss of the season to the Deshaun Watson-less Browns team. The 49ers got hit with some head-scratching penalties on the Browns’ game-winning drive but they were still in control of their fate for most of the game. That was against what is now ranked as the best defense in the league while Purdy was missing two elite weapons for a significant chunk of the game. Both Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel could miss this game but it also gives the team time to work around those injuries and focus on a new game plan. Brandon Aiyuk is an incredible route-runner who leads the team in targets and George Kittle could get more looks as a receiver, of which he is wholly deserving. They also get the benefit of playing a much more manageable defense that they can beat. The Vikings have improved mightily since last season’s flukey playoff appearance, ranking 13th on defense this season. That’s not going to be an easy challenge to overcome but the 49ers have beat up on two top defenses in the Steelers and the Cowboys. The Vikings are pretty good on offense though, even without Justin Jefferson, but missing the 2022 OPOY will hurt them a lot in these next few weeks. T.J. Hockenson will be relied on but the 49ers allow the 2nd lowest DVOA to opposing TEs and they’re generally very good against the pass. The Vikings 25th-ranked rushing offense will need to have a stellar performance if Kirk Cousins can’t get things going but I don’t trust the Vikings to close this one out. Bet on a 49ers bounce-back and tease them down to a win. 

Buffalo Bills (-8.5) @ New England Patriots O/U: 41 

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) O/U: 44.5 

Themi’s Teaser: Bills -2.5, Seahawks -1.5 

The Bills have been a confusing team this season. While they can easily put away a team like the high-octane Dolphins with ease, they have had two brutal losses and nearly fell to the Tyrod Taylor-led Giants on Sunday Night Football. Heading into hostile territory after showing signs of weakness will be scary but this is far from the Patriots teams of the past. While past seasons are largely useless, it’s worth noting that the Bills have only lost a single game to the Patriots since 2020 with nearly every Bills win being a blowout. This team has the chance to do even more damage against a Patriots team falling far below what we could have ever thought. The Bills are ranked 3rd in DVOA and incredibly impressive on both sides of the ball while the Patriots are 28th and have been keeping games against mediocre teams close thanks to an average defense. Josh Allen is dealing with a shoulder injury but seems to be good enough to play. With him looking healthy, the Bills are an excellent teaser leg. Bring them down to a win by a field goal. Some books are keeping this line at 9 and I don’t mind making this a 6.5-point teaser to keep The Bills at -2.5. Just make sure you’re betting that at -130 or better. 

The Seahawks were unlucky to lose last week but they can only blame themselves. Both teams played quite badly by their high standards, especially on offense. The Seahawks made it deep into Bengals territory - and quite often into the red zone and within the 5 - only to throw it all away and either turn the ball over or settle for a field goal. Now hosting the Cardinals, they can’t afford to squander those opportunities again. The Cardinals can’t reach the offensive peaks that Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense can when healthy but they’re still quite good at scoring. Their past 3 games may not show it but they’re the 12th-best offense by DVOA and have been able to put pressure on teams early. It has almost always ended badly, though, as their 31st-ranked defense just can’t stop teams for long enough. Facing top offenses like the Rams and 49ers hasn’t helped either. Seattle ranks 9th on offense and has improved to an average defense. Geno Smith is still one of the best QBs in the league after last year’s shocking breakout. Injuries have been adding up for the Seahawks and they may be without WR D.K. Metcalf but they can overcome these to get a win against the Cardinals. 

Straight: 

Lions ML (+140)

The teaser section covers why I love the Lions but I’ll also take them to win. The +3 spread is worth considering as well but I see the most value in the teaser and moneyline. 

Commanders -2.5 (-110)

Commanders/Giants Over 37.5 Points (-110) 

The Commanders expectedly bounced back from their embarrassing loss to the Bears but they’re still on the road and trying to stay afloat. They visit a Giants team that had their closest game of the season but they should win this one pretty handily. The Giants have only exceeded 17 points in a single game this season. While they have played some incredibly tough defenses, they also played the Dolphins and Seahawks who have struggled to contain opposing passing attacks. Seattle did apply serious pressure and they rank 1st against the run so obviously context matters but they are not dropping points on a weekly basis. Their best offensive game came against the 31st-ranked Cardinals defense after trailing 28-7 in the 3rd quarter. The Commanders don’t possess the same top defense from 2022 but they’re 22nd in the league and 14th against the run. Their offensive output is similarly below-average and run-centric but the Giants are dead last on offense, even worse than the Panthers and Patriots. Missing Saquon Barkley for 3 games and easing Wan’Dale Robinson back in must have had an effect but it’s clear that The Giants are just not the same team as last year. The pieces are there and they haven’t capitalized. While the Commanders have allowed a ton of points, they have managed to eke out wins against most of their mediocre opponents. That shouldn’t change this week but the Giants should be able to score enough to push this point total to 38 or more. 

Packers -1 (-110) 

The Packers have only one win this season by more than a single point – a 14-point victory over the Bears in Week 1. Outside of a 14-point divisional loss of their own, their other 3 games have been decided by a total of 6 points. They head into a notoriously difficult atmosphere following a much-needed bye week. The Broncos had a mini-bye of their own after losing to the Chiefs on Thursday and thus getting some extra rest. The Broncos have been awful on defense and their 17th-ranked offense has hardly done enough to keep up with even the worst offenses in the league. To their credit, the Broncos have kept things close in all of their games outside of the blowout loss to the Dolphins. While the final scores and their overall stats won’t reflect that well, their offense is still pretty good. They’ve dropped to a middle-of-the-pack attack but they won’t go down without a fight. The Packers are not nearly as strong on defense as the Chiefs or Jets were but they are a statistically solid team that just suffered an unfortunate loss. Jordan Love started the season unrealistically hot but went too far to the other side, throwing for 182 yards, 0 TDs, and 3 INTs against the Raiders. Perhaps the big stage was just too much for Love to handle but this was the flukiest game of his career. Even against a top Lions team, he was able to post a respectable stat line. Getting Aaron Jones back will be massive for the team. Love gets an elite RB and passing safety net without needing to fully rely on A.J. Dillon. The Broncos are the worst defense in the league and don’t excel at stopping any side of the ball. The Raiders may have been pretty bad too but they’re at least slightly competent. I don’t fancy Denver’s chances of slowing down a well-rested Jordan Love with an offense that may be finally ready to come together. The offensive line issues will be scary for the Packers but the Broncos are one of the worst teams in the league at generating pressure, even worse than the Raiders. Bet on the Packers to sneak out a win by a couple of points. 

Atlanta Falcons Team Total Under 17.5 Points (-102) 

The Buccaneers have been able to hold the middling offenses of the league at bay and now host a tumbling Falcons team that hasn’t been able to generate anything against good defenses all season. The Lions (3rd) and Jaguars (8th) have limited Atlanta to a combined 13 points when they hosted them. The Falcons couldn’t even get much going against the lowly Commanders who have nosedived on defense but are still decent against the run. Now facing the Buccaneers and their 10th-ranked defense - also 10th against the run - they’ll likely find it difficult to score much. It’s hardly a coincidence that the Falcons could only score when facing some of the worst run defenses in the league like the Packers, Texans, and Panthers. It’s not a direct correlation but it makes sense when you understand just how much the Falcons rely on their run game. Desmond Ridder is one of the worst QBs in the league and should get flustered once again. This game also has the lowest point total of the week at around 37.

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Themi Michalakis