Week 7 Buy Low and Sell High

With Week 6 of the NFL season in the books, Lead Writer Matt Ward has his eyes on three buy-low targets and three sell-high targets heading into Week 7! Take advantage of your league mates by acquiring star players at their lowest value and dealing away volatile players at their highest values!

BUY LOW

Johnathan Taylor RB - Indianapolis Colts

Johnathan Taylor has backed up Zack Moss in both games since returning to action in Week 5. In their past two games, Moss has produced three touchdowns and 186 rushing yards on 30 carries. Taylor has managed just 99 yards total (37 Rushing/62 Receiving) on 20 touches (14 Carries/6 Receptions) as he plays a secondary change-of-pace role to the Colts' current leading rusher. Managers are justifiably frustrated with Taylor’s lack of usage coupled with Moss’ continued success but if you believe that the Colts just paid a franchise cornerstone 48.5 million dollars to back up a fourth-round journeyman, you are sorely mistaken. The Colts' success on the ground is much more a product of their offensive line than it is an indicator of Moss’ newfound talents. Their offensive line currently ranks 4th overall, according to PFF and their cumulative run blocking grade ranks 2nd overall. Any perceivable discount you can get on the Colts franchise running back should be viewed as a positive. There is a zero percent outcome that Moss continues to hold off a healthy Taylor from rightfully reprising his role as the Colts' three-down workhorse.

DeVonta Smith WR - Philadelphia Eagles

During the first two weeks of the 2023 season, it appeared as if DeVonta Smith had overtaken A.J. Brown, progressing into an elite role ahead of a fellowly elite wideout. Unfortunately, production and usage have regressed for the younger of the Eagles wideout while Brown has exploded for at least six catches and 125 yards in four consecutive contests. Smith, on the other hand, has surpassed 50 yards and five catches only once during that stretch. The cost of acquisition has never been cheaper and although the current outlook is justifiably muddy, the elongated payoff is undeniably sensational. Smith still boasts a sensational range of outcomes, despite his current regression. The third-year wideout is commanding a 22.7% target share (WR27), ranking second amongst all wide receivers in snap share (97.2%) while running a route on 100.0% of Jalen Hurts’ dropbacks this season. Smith is maintaining a respectable 12.2 PPG (WR37) with expected progression toward the norm in the coming weeks. According to ReceptionPerception, Smith is maintaining an incredible success rate on his routes versus press and man coverage averaging 2.14 yards of separation per target (WR9) and 2.39 fantasy points per target (WR11). Ever encouraging is the continued pass-heavy game scripts the Eagles find themselves in due to the collapse of a once-solid defense that is now allowing 232.2 passing yards (20th) and 20.7 offensive points per game (16th). Smith is a prime candidate for a major bounce-back performance and should be actively sought after by managers needing a roster shakeup.

Chris Olave WR - New Orleans Saints

The Chris Olave hype train has significantly slowed alongside the Saints' sputtering offense. An injury to Derek Carr’s throwing shoulder capped the second-year wideout's most lethal weapon – the deep ball. In Carr’s first game following the injury, the majority of his pass attempts were directed behind the line of scrimmage, with Alvin Kamara setting an embarrassing record for most receptions in NFL history with the least amount of yards (13 Receptions/33 Yards). Olave produced just one reception on six targets for four yards in that contest. In the following game, the Saints star wideout salvaged another disparaging outing with a late touchdown grab but still saw just five targets with two receptions for 12 yards outside of his lone score. Week 6 produced a much better outing for the young receiver as Olave hauled in seven of 10 targets for 96 yards. Managers may foolishly be assessing Olave’s last performance as an outlier rather than a signal of Carr’s progressing health and ability to stretch the field. Regardless of cost, the acquisition is well worth the investment as Olave ranks 12th in expected fantasy points (21.4) despite currently averaging just 13.2 PPG (WR24). Anytime managers can pay WR2 value for an asset with the potential to finish within the top five at his position they must aggressively pursue all offers.

SELL HIGH

Chuba Hubbard RB - Carolina Panthers

Chuba Hubbard was thrust into a leading role for the Panthers in Week 6 while Miles Sanders (Groin/Shoulder) watched from the sidelines. Hubbard had a respectable outing, rushing for 88 yards on 19 attempts (4.6 YPC) with one touchdown, adding one reception on one target for a two-yard gain. His 15.5 fantasy points marked the second-highest total of Hubbard’s three-year career, landing the Panthers running back with an RB7 finish on the week. The selling window for Hubbard will be a short one as the Panthers are set to take their bye in Week 7, allowing Sanders to get healthy and the offense to reassess their philosophies for the second half of the season. It is highly unlikely that Hubbard will maintain a meaningful role upon Sanders' return, leaving the third-year back as a low-end handcuff stash rather than a viable starting option. Managers should look to profit in any way possible before the Panthers regain their core players.

Jameson Williams WR - Detroit Lions

Jameson Williams put his big play ability on display once again in the Lions' 20-6 win over the Buccaneers in Week 6. The speedy second-year wideout caught two of three targets, including a 45-yard touchdown bomb from Jared Goff late in the third quarter. Williams track star speed and polarizing return following suspension have managers rushing to the market to acquire the young wideout. Unfortunately, consistent production will be difficult to maintain for Williams unless the Lions make a monumental shift in their offensive philosophy, a highly unlikely scenario considering their 5-1 record. Williams has a lowly snap percentage of 45.6% this season with a route participation rating of just 50.0%. He is earning a target on 21.4% of his routes, with an 8.8% target share while averaging a replacement-level 0.76 Yards Per Team Pass Attempt. Unless the Lions are going to completely revamp their depth chart, Williams will remain nothing more than a volatile boom-or-bust option. Shop the youngster around to any and all managers who believe otherwise.

Isiah Pacheco RB - Kansas City Chiefs

Isiah Pacheco is riding the highs of four consecutive top-15 positional performances, finishing as the RB11 (Week 3 vs CHI), RB7 (Week 4 @ NYJ), RB13 (Week 5 @ MIN), and RB14 (Week 6 vs DEN). The four defenses that Pacheco has faced in said outings combine to average 127.4 rushing yards allowed per game while the Bears, the Broncos, and the Jets all rank in the top 10 for most fantasy points allowed over average to the running back position via Broto’s True Matchup Rank. Pacheco will not be fed continuously soft matchups throughout the season and his middling averages suggest major regression on the horizon. The Chiefs' running back has scored three times in the last four games but averages 0.47 Points Per Opportunity Excluding Touchdowns (PPOxTD), ranked 20th at the position. He is currently putting up 87.0 combined scrimmage yards per game (64.5 Rushing YPG/22.5 Receiving YPG), ranked 18th and 22nd in both categories. Although Pacheco’s usage has increased from his inaugural season he still boasts an uninspiring snap share of 52.8% (RB26) and a lowly opportunity share of 61.8% (RB21). The inflated prices attached to positive performers on an offense helmed by Patrick Mahomes can often turn a scintillating profit for those willing to look past the jersey colors.

Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.

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By Matt Ward