Sleepers and Busts: Week 6

SLEEPERS

QB: Dak Prescott - Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott should be well on his way in the 2023 MVP conversation rather than being highlighted as a potential high-upside sleeper in Week 6. Alas, here we are. The Cowboys quarterback has been an unstartable asset for managers this season, finishing no higher than QB17 in any start this season (Week 1: QB29, Week 2: QB17, Week 3: QB18, Week 4, QB19, Week 5: QB25). Prescott has faced a linear line of regression in his last four starts but has faced three top-5 passing defenses in those contests (Jets: Week 2, Patriots: Week 4, 49ers: Week 5). The defenses get much easier from here on out as Prescott will face the Chargers in Week 6 before going on bye, followed by the Rams, the Eagles, and the Giants all four of which rank in the bottom 10 defenses in terms of passing production allowed to their opposition. The Cowboys (3-2) will have to make one last road trip before taking their mandated break as the team travels west to face off against a well-rested Chargers (2-2) squad. Even with extra time to prepare, the Chargers remain one of the best possible matchups to target when looking for fantasy points from your quarterback. They are allowing 433.5 total yards per game (31st) with 299.8 of those yards coming via the air with a league-worst passing defense. The Chargers concede 20.9 PPG to opposing quarterbacks, allowing 17.6 PPG of passing production alone. It may take some guts to start a player who has yet to finish inside of the top-15 at his position but there has never been a better time to invest in Prescott’s bounce back than in Week 6 against the easiest matchup he will face all season.

Matt Ward

RB: Chuba Hubbard - Carolina Panthers

Chuba Hubbard has been thrust into an RB1 role for the Panthers as Miles Sanders (Groin, Shoulder, Ankle, Knee) deals with a laundry list of minor nagging injuries. Sanders has suited up for the past two contests but relinquished his top spot to Hubbard in both matchups as the latter of the teammates saw more snaps and more carries. Now, with Sanders expected to be sidelined for Week 6, Hubbard will operate with the backfield to himself. The third-year back has had some respectable averages this season, posting 154 yards on 35 carries (4.4 YPC). A positive matchup with the potential for a sneaky shootout may hinder Hubbard's overall rushing volume as the Panthers (0-5) travel to face the Dolphins (4-1) in Week 5 with the visitors coming in as 14.0-point underdogs on the road. With that said, the implied increase in usage against a sensational matchup is enough to warrant a Flex start in most formats. The Dolphins' defense is giving up 115.8 rushing yards per game (18th) allowing top-24 outings from Austin Ekeler (RB2) and Josh Kelley in Week 1 (RB11), Rhamondre Stevenson (RB17) in Week 2, and James Cook (RB13) in Week 4. They are allowing 22.6 PPG to running backs, ranked 3rd in Broto’s True Matchup Rank while giving up 16.7 PPG of rushing production (1st) and 5.9 PPG of receiving production (7th) to opposing backfields, further fueling the positive upside for Hubbard who operates as a more traditional pure rusher.

Matt Ward

WR: K.J. Osborn - Minnesota Vikings

Justin Jefferson’s injury opens the door for K.J. Osborn to once again serve as a WR2. Kirk Cousins has shown a willingness to use Osborn as a medium-range threat who can command a decent target share. Jordan Addison has a 12.2 aDOT and can threaten with the deep ball making for a good offensive attack. Surprisingly, Osborn is tied with Alexander Mattison for the most red zone targets on the team this season, earning seven each. Both Jefferon and Addison have five red zone targets while T.J. Hockenson has just four this season. Osborn has split time playing out wide and in the slot pretty evenly so he should often face Jaylon Johnson who ranks 4th in coverage on PFF. Kyler Gordon is back but he struggled to contain many players his rookie year. He allowed 10 completions for 65 yards on 11 targets in his only game against the Vikings last season. This is still one of the worst defenses in the league and the Vikings will take advantage. I do not expect a career-best outing for Osborn but he is a no-brainer Flex play with WR2 upside for a desperate team in what could be a competitive and high-scoring matchup. 

Themi Michalakis

TE: Hunter Henry - New England Patriots

Hunter Henry has been a classic tight end sleeper option for years now, whether it be playing a secondary role on the Chargers or being the most reliable pass-catcher on the Patriots. Never a top-tier choice but always reliable as a streamer or for a bye-week fill-in. This year has been no different as Henry is currently the TE9 in Half-PPR PPG and boasts two weekly finishes as the TE2 overall or higher. In those two games, Hunter Henry produced nearly identical stat lines, finishing with 5+ catches, 50+ receiving yards, and a touchdown in each. Unfortunately, after a red-hot start to the season, things have cooled down for Henry and he has finished outside the top 15 tight ends for three weeks in a row now. He has still been seeing consistent volume with 5 targets in two of the three games but the Patriots offense has been dysfunctional, to say the least. This cold streak should be shattered in Week 6 as the Patriots face off against a sloppy Raiders defense. The Raiders have been struggling against tight ends this season, ranking 1st in True Matchup Rank while conceding an increase of 168.0% Points Over Average to the position. This matchup paves the road for an easy jaunt to TE1 territory for Henry. He has exploded with high-end production in multiple games this season and with a juicy matchup across from him, the sky's the limit this week. 

Boyd Armstrong

BUSTS

QB: C.J. Stroud - Houston Texans

There are very few negatives, if any, to point out about C.J. Stroud's historic start to his NFL career. The Texans rookie quarterback has surpassed several record-breaking thresholds in his first five starts, including setting the NFL record for most consecutive pass attempts without an interception for a first-year player (177 Attempts). Unfortunately, the Cinderella ride strikes midnight when the Texans (2-3) host the Saints (3-2) in a rare cross-conference matchup between the two geographical rivals. The Saints' defense is amongst the most fearsome and effective units at all facets, allowing just 289.2 total yards (3rd) with 183.0 passing yards (4th) and 91.6 rushing yards (8th) per game while giving up just 15.2 combined points to their opposition. The Saints currently sit 18th in True Matchup Rank to the quarterbacks, allowing 15.8 PPG (11.6 PPG Passing/4.2 PPG Rushing) to the position. The Saints stingy 11.6 PPG of passing production allowed ranks 26th in the league with a negative Points Over Average rating of (-)16.0%. Stroud has been excellent through the air, averaging 292.2 yards per game in his first five starts but has added little as a rusher, gaining just 53 total yards (10.6 YDS/G) on 15 attempts with his career-longest rush coming in at 11 yards. No quarterback (save for Baker Mayfield’s Week 4 explosion) has been able to solve the ever-increasing problems that the Saints defense presents. They are a red-hot unit coming off a 34-0 shutout win over the Patriots and show no signs of regression, only progression amongst their stars. Stroud may very well be the best of his class but he is still a raw rookie who is about to face off against his toughest competition to date (by a wide margin at that). The rookie is due for a wake-up call and there is not a better team to pick up the phone and dial up an unbeatable game plan than the Saints.

Matt Ward

RB: Rachaad White - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rachaad White has been a major disappointment this season, averaging just 9.9 Half-PPR PPG as the RB25 overall despite handling a 75.9% snap share (RB7), 71.0% opportunity share (RB11) on an offense that ranks top 10 in designed rushing plays per game (29.3/10th Overall). Even more discouraging is White’s apparent decline as an elite pass-catcher as the second-year back is averaging a mediocre 10.9% target share (RB17) despite boasting a sensational 63.5% route participation rating (RB7). He’s managing just 6.6 yards per reception (RB21), 1.08 Yards Per Route Run (RB24), and 0.61 fantasy points per opportunity (RB51) as one of the least efficient running backs with a legitimate workhorse role in the entire NFL. White also ranks 11th overall in total red zone opportunities with 15 touches inside the 20s but has found the end zone only once this season. All of the aforementioned negatives have snowballed into a disastrous Week 6 outlook for the once-promising back. The Buccaneers (3-1) stayed home after their Week 5 bye to host the Lions (4-1) in a battle between two NFC Division leaders. The Lions' defense has found their identity as one of the most effective run defenses in the NFL, allowing just 68.4 rushing yards (3rd) per game to their opposition. It’s not like the Lions have been easily exploitable elsewhere either, giving up 224.4 passing yards (17th) and 21.4 points per game (15th) as a rapidly improving unit. They are allowing a mere 12.4 PPG to opposing running backs with a negative Points Over Average rating of (-)48.0% making them the NFL’s top-ranked defense when stemming the production of rival rushers. Furthermore, the Lions concede a mere 7.5 PPG of rushing production (32nd/-52.0% Points Over Average) and 4.8 PPG of receiving production (28th/-40.0%) to running backs. White is on the wrong end of regression against the worst possible matchup for expecting a bounce-back performance. 

Matt Ward

WR: Amari Cooper - Cleveland Browns

Nothing is clicking for the Browns this season as the team looks riddled with dysfunction and disappointment. Historically speaking, this is hardly a shocking development for the basement-feeding franchise but the expectation of having a franchise quarterback has still yet to be met. Deshaun Watson was held out of the Browns' previous contest despite being cleared from the injury report and is apparently still not prepared to take the field despite no medical designations and the Browns coming off a Week 5 bye. Fantasy managers will have to deal with a massive downgrade at quarterback in an already tough matchup. The 49ers have the 5th best passing DVOA and have been able to shut down nearly every opposing mediocre offense this season. The Browns with P.J. Walker or Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback will have 49ers defenders foaming at the mouth. This isn’t the same as Marquise Brown or Puka Nacua torching them. Cooper could get a decent floor from target numbers alone but he only caught one of six for 16 yards against the Ravens in his last game. Walker should get the start and provide a better game as a veteran but he could easily be limited to under 200 passing yards. The 49ers boast a strong and dynamic secondary. Cooper should get a healthy dose of Charvarius Ward, making him a hesitant start in most lineups. Hopefully, you have some viable pivots and won't be forced to start him. If you do slide Cooper into your lineups, you run the risk of a near goose egg. Don’t expect him to carry your team this week.

Themi Michalakis

TE: Kyle Pitts - Atlanta Falcons

This season has not shaken out the way Kyle Pitts managers were hoping. He came into the season with a top-seven positional ADP, only to wind up averaging 5.88 Half-PPR PPG (TE17) through the first five weeks. This extreme lack of production has stung those who were willing to take a shot at him. Week 6 may very well add salt to the proverbial wounds. Through his first four games, Pitts was an unstartable asset, averaging less than three catches a game and producing a useless 4.0 Half-PPR PPG for your lineup. Last week, the sun started to peek its head through the clouds and we finally got a glimpse of Pitts’ fantasy upside. He finished the day with seven catches for 87 receiving yards and the team lead in targets, landing himself a TE9 weekly finish. After a season-best performance like that, managers may be excited to plug Pitts back into their lineups. Unfortunately for them, the radar calls for more doom and gloom to return in Week 6 as the Falcons face the surprisingly stingy Commanders' defense. The Commanders are currently 32nd in True Matchup Rank for the tight end position, making them the worst possible matchup in the league to start a tight end against. They’re clamping down and allowing negative (-)47.0% Points Over Average to the position. Things do not bode well for Pitts’ chances of building off last week's success and landing himself another top-12 weekly finish. Resist the temptation and pivot elsewhere for your tight end position, at least until a more promising matchup is on the horizon. 

Boyd Armstrong

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