Broto Bets Week 6

Week 5 was a big week. Broto Bets went 5-1 and gained 3.51 units. Week 6 isn’t nearly as enticing but still offers lines that I like. 

2023 Total: 15-7, +6.31u 

Teasers: 

All teasers are 2-team/6-point teasers at one unit unless otherwise noted. Make sure to only bet teasers at -120 or better. 

Philadelphia Eagles (-7) @ New York Jets O/U: 41 

Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (-7) O/U: 48.5 

Themi’s Teaser: Eagles -1, Rams -1 (1.5u) 

The Eagles had a shaky start to the season, missing multiple starters on defense and losing DC Jonathan Gannon. Sean Desai has done enough to keep that defense competitive despite those issues. Philadelphia is rolling at 5-0 and gets a great matchup this week. The Jets are coming off of a 31-21 win over the Broncos and should be feeling great. This is clearly a team that can still lean on its defense to win games, but they also took advantage of a juicy defensive matchup that allowed the offense to put up a lot of points. Most of that came from the leg of Greg Zurlein, though. The Jets only scored one offensive TD - a 72-yard run from Breece Hall - but recovered a fumble for a TD late in the game to seal the victory. Denver was well in play to win that game at any moment and led for a fair share of time. Now facing the best run defense in the league things won’t be as easy, even without standout DT Jalen Carter. The Eagles rank 5th in DVOA, 7th on offense and 13th on defense, while the Jets are a paltry 23rd. Their 15th ranked defense has been a godsend but it hasn’t been enough to close out many games. Now losing Alijah Vera-Tucker for the season, a mediocre offensive line is only getting worse. The Eagles have generated a top ten amount of pressures in the league this season and should pester Zach Wilson. The Jets haven’t done enough on offense to show they can climb this mountain with ease. The high percentage play is to tease the Eagles down to a win in a game with a low point total of 42.5. 

This Cardinals defense is atrocious. The flukey game against the Cowboys doesn’t disregard just how beatable the Cardinals are. A 30th ranked defense that has allowed over 30 points in 3 separate games - including to the New York Giants - just doesn’t give me hope for their chances of stopping Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Cooper Kupp showed that he hasn’t lost a step after a vintage performance in his return last week and now faces a team that let Ja’Marr Chase catch 15 balls for 192 yards and 3 TDs. Cincinnati has a much better defense than Los Angeles, especially against the pass, but the Rams are a bit better than Arizona in that facet. Despite only ranking one spot apart on offense too, I trust the Rams with their WR1 back to do a lot more damage. Make no mistake, this game should be closer than many may expect but LA should win in the end. Despite the high point total I know who I want. I am confident enough in both teams to win that I’ll bet 1.5 units on this teaser. 

Washington Commanders (+2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons O/U: 42.5 

San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) @ Cleveland Browns O/U: 35.5 

Themi’s Teaser: Commanders +9.5, 49ers -2.5 

The Commanders may look like they’re falling apart after getting torched by the Bears but they’re still a half-decent team that can stay competitive. The Falcons aren’t much better than the Commanders on paper, ranking only one spot ahead in DVOA and being equally mid on both offense and defense. Both teams are also especially good at running the ball and stopping the run. The Falcons have the defensive edge with the 7th best run defense in the league, but Washington is still 16th in that category. Regardless, the passing game will have to really lean on Drake London to get Desmond Ridder going if Atlanta is to win by double digits. Ridder is PFF’s 32nd ranked QB and his -0.90 EPA/play ranks 27th. Sam Howell isn’t lightyears ahead of him but outside of his game against Buffalo’s elite pass defense, he has been solid enough. Atlanta isn’t Buffalo on either side of the ball. They may still win this one but the low point total works in Washington’s favor as both teams rank similarly in DVOA. 

The 49ers are the best team in football. I’m sure the Eagles, Lions, Chiefs, Bills, and Dolphins will all try to prove that statement wrong but for now it looks to be true. The 49ers have been favored by over a field goal since their opening game and have been climbing. Deshaun Watson’s injury and unavailability is the real issue here and the cause of so much movement. Watson missed Week 4 and the team couldn’t get anything going against a tough Ravens defense with pre-season star Dorian Thompson-Robinson in at QB. There are reports that P.J. Walker would start over him but regardless there is a clear issue with the QB position on an offense that has already underwhelmed while losing their best skill position player. The Browns have an incredible defense of their own but even that will not be enough to overcome their greatest foe of the season. Although the Commanders are a riskier leg than I’d like to lean on for the price, the 49ers are worth backing here in a 7-point teaser at -140. There isn’t extra value in pairing them with the Rams or Eagles at -7 each. The difference between -0.5 and a PK is essentially nonexistent except in the rare case that either ties and your book doesn’t grade a teaser leg pushing as a loss. With lines continuing to rise, this whole teaser is a fade if the 49ers are unanimously -10. Some books may still offer -9.5 but may offer significantly worse teaser prices so double check before you bet. 

Straight:

Colts +4 (-110) 

Gardner Minshew is a capable backup who has proven that he can keep the Colts relevant. After starting the season with a big loss to the Jaguars at home, things could be quite different this time around. Week 1 is always flukey but Jacksonville is one of the better teams in the league. Ranking 11th in DVOA, they have especially impressed with their improved secondary. Last season you could pick them apart but they’ve kept some high profile QBs at bay this season. The Colts are only a few spots behind in DVOA and have been able to lean on a surprisingly strong run game led by Zack Moss. Jonathan Taylor is back but was eased into his first start of 2023. RB success has been a mixed bag against the Jaguars despite them ranking top-5 against it overall. The Jaguars have been competitive but play incredibly inconsistently. With a field goal to spare, the Colts can cover. 

Ravens -5.5 (-110) 

Titans Team Total Under 17.5 Points (-110) 

Baltimore may seem like an inconsistent team full of offensive issues and injuries on the surface, and while part of that may be true, advanced analytics still view them as one of the best overall teams in the league. The Ravens are 3-2 and have plenty to keep playing for in a wide-open AFC where nearly every team has a glaring flaw. The Ravens rank 11th on offense but importantly 2nd on defense in DVOA. The Titans are a below-average team that hasn’t had a convincing performance against a top defense just yet. The Browns demolished them 27-3 while the Saints won a close one 16-15. Tennessee has fared much better at home than on the road but still only won against the Chargers by 3 (22nd on defense) and blew out the Bengals (23rd on defense) with Joe Burrow still dealing with a calf injury. Tennessee is known for their strong run defense despite getting punished by Zack Moss and should prove problematic for Baltimore, but their pass defense is just awful. Tennessee is allowing the highest DVOA to WR1s which opens the door for budding rookie Zay Flowers to feast. I don’t fancy Tennessee’s chances of scoring much against Baltimore either. Losing Treylon Burks for another week won’t help an asinine offense, so I expect another week of offensive issues for Tennessee.

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By Themi Michalakis