Former All-Pro running back Ezekiel Elliott has finally found a home after nearly five months as a forgotten name in free agency - the New England Patriots. The immediate response to this signing is that current starting running back Rhamondre Stevenson’s ceiling is destined to be lower than previously projected and that Zeke has found an above-average landing spot. This article intends to analyze the running back room and help managers to decide the best course of action during the upcoming draft season.
The deep dive will begin with the name in the headlines, none other than former Cowboys superstar running back. It is no secret that Elliott has declined in recent seasons, helping to explain the Cowboys' easy decision to move on from the three-time Pro Bowler. He started his career by averaging the 6th most rushing yards per game and 11th most total rushing yards through a player’s first four seasons in the league.
Things took a turn in 2020 when Zeke had the lowest rushing total of his career, compiling 979 rushing yards on 244 carries (4.0 YPC) in 15 games played. The only other time he had failed to reach the 1,000-yard at this juncture of his career was when served a 6-game suspension in 2017 wherein Elliott accrued 983 rushing yards in 10 games. The 2020 season also yielded new career lows in Yards Per game (65.2), Yards Per Carry (4.0), and touchdowns (6).
Elliott started the 2021 season back to his usual pace, averaging 17 carries, 90.4 rushing yards, and 1.0 touchdowns per game during the first five weeks. He finished the remaining 12 weeks of the season with mediocre averages of 12.6 carries, 45.8 rushing yards, and 0.4 touchdowns per game. This 12-week sample in 2021 translated to an output of 152 carries for a measly 550 yards (3.6 YPC) and five touchdowns. It was later revealed that this dropoff could have been a product of a partially-torn PCL that Elliott chose to conceal while he labored through for most of the 2021 campaign.
The 2022 season carried on it appeared as if the straw had finally become too much for the camel's back to bear. Elliott recorded the lowest number of Carries (231), Yards (876), Yards Per Game (58.4), Yards Per Carry (3.8), Targets (23), Catches (17), and Receiving Yards (92) of his tumultuous seven-year career. The 2022 season was also the only season in which Eliott did not surpass 100 yards in a game. The veteran running back finished the season as the RB22 overall in both total PPR Points and PPG. Last season also marked the first time Elliott finished outside of RB1 status in total points and the third consecutive season in which he ranked at/outside the top-15 RBs in PPG.
What little success Elliott did have as a fantasy asset in 2022 was buoyed by 12 rushing touchdowns (4th best in the NFL), his highest number since 2019.
While an unsuspecting touchdown total certainly sounds impressive on paper it is important to remember that touchdowns are amongst the least predictive stat in fantasy football. Furthermore, it appears a good chunk of luck was in Elliott's favor during the 2022 season. Seven of his 12 touchdowns came from inside the one yard-line with 10 of his 12 touchdowns occurring six yards or less from the opponents' goal line. When viewing the veteran bruiser's Points Per Opportunity Excluding Touchdowns (PPOxTD), managers can receive a better understanding of how efficient Elliott would be should his touchdown numbers regress. Last season, the plodding thumper registered a 0.41 PPOxTD, ranking 67th among all eligible RBs. Elliott is seemingly nothing but an inefficient, touchdown-dependent running back who once again finds himself locked into a committee with a more talented weapon. Things are not looking up for Elliott as he enters his first new offense while heading into his 8th year as an NFL player.
The other running back in question is third-year fantasy darling, Rhamondre Stevenson. Stevenson stayed under the radar in his rookie season, finishing as the RB 47 Overall and RB43 in PPG. He only surpassed 50% of snaps three times in his 12 games played as a rookie, averaging 34.9% of the offensive plays through the 2021 season. Stevenson finished his rookie campaign with 133 carries for 606 yards (4.6 YPC) and five total touchdowns with 14 catches on 18 targets for an additional 123 receiving yards. While these overall numbers left much to be desired, Stevenson showed flashes down the stretch. In the three aforementioned games surpassing 50% of snaps, Stevenson finished as the RB2 (27.2 points - Week 10), RB30 (7.3 points - Week 13), and RB6 (22.7 points - Week 17).
The 2022 offseason was beneficial for Stevenson as two veteran receiving specialists left the team - James White and Brandon Bolden. These two backs accounted for 499 receiving yards and 65.4% of the total receiving yards amongst all Patriots RBs in 2021. They also accounted for 58.3% of RB targets and 59.5% of RB catches. These departures catapulted Stevenson into the top receiving role in the running back room. He jumped from 14 catches on 18 targets in 2021 to 69 catches on 88 targets in 2022. Stevenson's target totals ranked 3rd in 2022 with his receptions total ranking 4th. Not only did the Patriots star running back lead the team in carries but he topped the entire roster in receptions as well. The next closest pass-catcher on the Patriots to Stevenson was Jakobi Meyers with 67 catches.
Stevenson took a step up in the receiving department while also usurping the Patriots' former leading rusher Damien Harris. Harris started Week 1 and out-snapped Stevenson 22 to 14; this would be the last week Harris out-snapped Stevenson until Week 18. Stevenson was the clear top dog of the backfield with a team-leading 210 carries, 1,040 rushing yards (5.0 YPC), 61.2 Yards Per Game, and five rushing TDs. He owned 32 of the 50 running back Red Zone Rush Attempts (64.0%) and 12 of the 18 carries within the five-yard line (66.6%). He ranked 15th in running back Red Zone Rush Attempts but averaged an abysmal 1.7 yards per attempt, ranked 2nd worst among all RBs with a red zone attempt percentage over 50%. Stevenson's lack of red zone efficiency signaled the Patriots' need for a stronger between-the-tackles rusher.
Stevenson showed elite usage in 2022, ranking in the top-12 of all running backs in Rushing Yards (1040), Yards Per Carry (5.0), Targets (88), Receptions (67), Receiving Yards (421), Receiving Yards Per Game (24.8), True Target Value (1.89), Total PPR Points (485), PPR PPG (14.7), Target Percentage (16.3), and Big Plays (9). It is evident Stevenson is a star in the making as he proves to be an elite option in the NFL.
Now that both players have been detailed we must further analyze how each asset will inevitably affect the other's workload. Let’s start with the rushing aspect of their game. Stevenson has risen in both carries and efficiency in the past two seasons. Elliott has fallen in both carries and efficiency in the past two seasons while being overthrown in the Cowboys by Tony Pollard, eventually being cut to save cap space.
Stevenson had 15 Breakaway Runs (6th) with a breakaway run rate of 7.1% (13th) last season while Elliott had eight breakaway runs (24th) with a breakaway run rate of 3.5% (41st). Stevenson had 3.43 Yards Created Per Touch (6th) while Zeke managed a laughably inefficient 1.42 yards(54th). These two running backs are in completely different worlds in the efficiency category outside of the unsustainable red zone opportunities that led to Elliott's touchdown totals.
The only rushing categories where Elliott had an edge over Stevenson were rushing touchdowns, red zone touches, and red zone efficiency. Zeke finished 8th in red zone attempts (39) with 2.8 yards per attempt while Stevenson finished 20th in red zone attempts (32) with 1.7 yards per attempt. Elliott converted 12 of those 39 carries for touchdowns leading to a 30.7% conversion percentage. Stevenson finished the season with a 9.3% conversion percentage. On paper, it appears Zeke will do most of his damage this season in the red zone while Stevenson should handle a majority of the touches between the 20s.
Now that rushing has been evaluated, it is time to look at the receiving aspect of their game. As previously stated Stevenson took a major leap in his receiving usage from year one to year two. On the contrary, Zeke had a career-low in targets, catches, and yardage. It should be noted these stats have decreased for him every year since the 2019 season with the exception of 71 targets both in 2019 and 2020. Stevenson ran 345 routes and was targeted on 25.8% of those routes while Zeke ran 224 routes and was targeted on 10.3% of said routes. He even garnered 1.22 yards per route run vs Zeke’s 0.41 yards per route run. To put the icing on the cake, Stevenson finished the season with a 68.0 receiving grade (13th) while Zeke finished the season with a 38.4 receiving grade (58th). There were 60 eligible running backs to be graded.
There is a lot to be said about the discrepancy in these players when it comes to receiving prowess with Stevenson dominating every category. Stevenson's utility on third downs does not end at receiving upside alone. Pass protection is arguably the most important aspect for receiving playing time on third downs. Per PFF, Rhamondre Stevenson had a higher pass-blocking grade (64.8) on more pass-blocking opportunities (88) than Ezekiel Elliott (61.1 Grade & 52 Opps.).
The synopsis of this article is concise and direct: Buy the inevitable value dip on Stevenson. He has proven to be the better rusher, receiver, and pass blocker in nearly every metric and it is clear that Ezekiel Elliott is simply an above-average depth piece with a high likelihood of being nothing more than a touchdown vulture and short-yardage specialist.
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By Nick Beaulieu
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.