The Broto Heat Wave brings you daily previews of every team’s fantasy football prospects in 2023. 32 teams in 32 days. Today we are recapping the episodes from the AFC West, bringing you quick-hitting bullets that summarize everything you need to know about the players and coaches in this division.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Offensive Outlook
Andy Reid enters year 11 as the Super Bowl-defending Chiefs head coach.
The Chiefs coaching staff is missing a stable pillar this season as long-time offensive coordinator/coaching assistant Eric Bieniemy leaves the organization.
Matt Nagy takes over for Bieniemy as the Chiefs new OC, formerly serving the same role for the team in 2017 after spending five years as the quarterback coach/passing game coordinator from 2012 through 2016.
Nagy departed the Chiefs for a head coaching role with the Bears, ironically returning full circle after the decision to draft Mitchell Trubisky ahead of Patrick Mahomes led to his firing.
The Chiefs finished with a 14-3 Record in 2022 (1st AFC West), ranking 1st in Points Per Game (29.2) with the 5th Highest Pass Percentage (61.0%) and the 25th Ranked Rush Percentage (39.0%).
Notable Offensive Additions: OT Jawaan Taylor, OT Donovan Smith, WR Richie James, Rookie WR Rashee Rice, Rookie RB Deneric Prince.
Notable Offensive Subtractions: OT Orlando Brown, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR Mecole Hardman.
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes had a career-defining year in his first season without Tyreek Hill, setting an NFL record for most yards in a single season en route to his second Super Bowl victory.
The generational gunslinger ranked 3rd in total completions, 2nd in True Throw Value, 1st in Passing Yards, 1st in Passing Touchdowns, 1st Overall in Fantasy Points and 3rd in PPG.
Mahomes was also incredibly efficient as a rusher, posting 358 rushing yards and four touchdowns despite suffering through a high ankle sprain for most of the season.
A massive overcorrection in quarterback ADP entering the 2023 season has ballooned Mahomes' value into a mid-second-round draft pick.
The talent and PPG ceiling of the Chiefs franchise signal-caller is undeniable but the philosophy of drafting a quarterback early in 1QB redraft leagues is rarely a strategy that yields significant upside.
Wide Receiver
Mahomes compiled 5250 passing yards and 41 touchdowns in 2022 and not a single member of the Chiefs with a wide receiver designation surpassed 1000 receiving yards.
JuJu Smith-Schuster led the wide receiver room with 933 receiving yards last season, followed by Marquez Valdes Scantling with 687, and Justin Watson with just 315 yards.
Mecole Hardman led all Chiefs wide receivers in touchdowns, needing only four in eight games to accomplish the feat.
Veteran running back Jerrick McKinnon easily outproduced nearly every receiver on the Chiefs roster, catching 56 passes for 512 yards and nine receiving touchdowns.
Smith-Schuster (Patriots) and Hardman (Jets) have both departed, leaving the oft-injured Kadarius Toney (ADP: WR36), deep-threat decoys Marquez Valdes-Scantling (ADP: WR75)/Richie James (ADP: WR90), second-year hopeful Skyy Moore (ADP: WR50), unproven hype train Justyn Ross (ADP: UND), and rookie Rashee Rice (ADP: WR65) as the mainstays on the depth chart.
Toney’s unwarranted hype has led to a team-topping ADP despite missing more games than played in his two-year career.
Toney has played only 19 career games, earning a total of 77 targets with 55 receptions for 591 yards and two touchdowns.
Skyy Moore is expected to step into the slot role that was previously occupied by Smith-Schuster, allowing for a sneaky late-round grab at WR50 for a second-year player that has shown all the signs of an eventual breakout.
Valdes-Scantling is nothing more than a mediocre deep threat. Last season the veteran wideout finished as the WR70 in PPG despite a True Target Value ranking of WR45.
Running Back
Isaih Pacheco and Jerrick McKinnon play succinct roles for the Chiefs with the former receiving the bulk of the early-down/rushing work and the latter taking the majority of third-down/receiving opportunities.
Former first-round running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire has proven to be a non-factor in the Chiefs' offense despite posting respectable numbers at the start of the 2022 season.
Edwards-Helaire will likely serve a menial role as a change-of-pace depth piece for the Chiefs' dual-headed running back monster.
Pacheco should maintain similar efficiency metrics as a rusher with a potential increase in volume.
It is worth noting that in his rookie season, Pacheco finished as the RB6 in True Target Value, lending a hopeful outlook for his ability to progress as a receiver simply due to the extremely high-value targets that Mahomes produces.
McKinnon provides the best value of any Chiefs running back, currently being drafted with an ADP of RB45.
Tight End
Travis Kelce reclaimed the throne of TE1 overall in 2022 after a slight fall off from the top in 2021.
Kelce proved why he provides the greatest positional advantage in all of fantasy football, finishing with 18.6 PPG.
The future Hall of Famer corralled 110 of his 152 targets for 1338 yards and 12 receiving touchdowns, leading all tight ends in every category.
There is no historical precedent that suggests Kelce is approaching a decline despite entering his age 34 season.
Kelce is undeniably the TE1 in fantasy drafts this season but will cost a first-round draft selection, backing managers into a very specific build where they must hit on all subsequent picks.
Dynasty Sleepers and Stashes
Honorable mention to Rashee Rice and Justyn Ross as two overlooked Chiefs wideouts.
Ross excelled at Clemson, recording a sensational true-freshman breakout against Patrick Surtain II and Trevon Diggs. Injuries and failed medical exams kept Ross from being selected in the 2022 NFL Draft but his talent when healthy is undeniable.
Rice is one of the most creative players in the 2023 NFL when it comes to creating yards after the catch. The former SMU alum finally broke out in his senior season in the NCAA posting 96 receptions on 157 targets (30.6% Target Share) for 1355 yards (14.1 YPR) and 10 touchdowns.
Both Rice and Ross will highly benefit from Mahomes’ otherworldly True Throw value as well as Andy Reid’s unmatchable ability to develop relatively unknown wide receivers.
The Chiefs' wide receiver depth chart is wide-open. Managers should expect an unsuspecting breakout from someone this season.
Deneric Prince rounds out the Dynasty stash segment as a name worth watching. The undrafted rookie running back from Tulsa registered a 4.41s 40-yard dash at the 2023 NFL Combine, posting a 96th percentile weight-adjusted speed score.
The 6’1” 216 lbs running back could have decent upside as an overlooked handcuff stash should any of the primary backs miss games.
Full Episode
DENVER BRONCOS
Offensive Outlook
Nathaniel Hackett is out after only one season as the Broncos head coach. The organization brings in future Hall of Fame head coach and long-time Saints skipper Sean Payton to helm the offense.
Payton enters a high-pressure situation as the expected savior of the Broncos after the Super-Bowl-winning head coach spent 16 years with the Saints, earning a .631% win percentage.
Payton coached the Saints to top-5 offensive rankings in 11 of his 16 seasons as head coach with none of his teams falling outside of the top-12 ranked offenses.
Joe Lombardi will serve as the Broncos offensive coordinator, reuniting with Payton after serving as the quarterbacks' coach for the Saints from 2007-2013/2016-2020.
Lombardi most recently served as the offensive coordinator for the Chargers, posting a top-5 offensive rank in his first season followed by a wildly mediocre outing in 2022 that culminated in blowing a 27-0 lead against the Jaguars in the playoffs.
The Broncos finished the 2022 season with a 4-12 Record (4th AFC West) while ranking dead last (32nd) in Points Per Game (16.9).
Notable Offensive Additions: OT Mike McGlinchey, OG Ben Powers, RB Samaje Perine, TE Adam Trautman, Rookie WR Marvin Mims.
Notable Offensive Subtractions: OG Graham Glasgow.
Quarterback
Russell Wilson drastically regressed in his first year as the Broncos quarterback, posting career-low completion percentages, PPG, and yards per attempt numbers.
Wilson’s unconventional off-field nature had reportedly lost the locker room last season, leaving the star quarterback on a disenfranchised island of dysfunction amidst a terrible offensive season.
Buying into Payton’s highly accredited system both on the field and in the locker room will be an absolute must for Wilson’s success and hopeful bounce back as an elite NFL quarterback.
Although the former Pro Bowl quarterback took the brunt of the blame, the Broncos' offensive line did Wilson no favors in 2022. The team allowed league-high pressure rates, QB-Hit rates and tied the Bears with a league-high 55 sacks allowed.
Devastating injuries to several members of the Broncos' offense kept the team from assembling any form of rhythm or chemistry.
Entering 2023 with a new head coach and offensive coordinator has forced expectations to a near-unachievable limit for Wilson and company but any semblance of improvement would be a vast leap forward from the circus show the team put on in 2022.
Wide Receiver
Despite an abysmal collective team performance in 2022, one player appeared to separate themselves as a potential star: Jerry Jeudy.
Jeudy finished the 2022 season averaging 13.6 PPG (WR19) despite three injury-shortened outings where he averaged a mere 26.6% snap share.
Jeudy finished as a top-20 wide receiver in seven of his 11 “healthy” games, including a WR1 overall finish where he caught eight of nine targets for 73 yards and three touchdowns (33.3 Points).
He recorded six or more targets in five consecutive games from Week 14 through Week 18 with five or more receptions and double-digit fantasy points during that stretch.
Jeudy impressively finished as the WR19 in PPG despite a True Target Value ranked WR41st.
The addition of offensive mastermind Sean Payton should help improve Jeudy’s True Target Value with a high-functioning offense.
Cortland Sutton did produce a single game above WR15 in 2022 with his final top-20 outing occurring in Week 4.
After Week 4 Sutton compiled zero games as a top 30 wide receiver until a WR26 finish in a meaningless outing during a Week 18 matchup against the Chargers.
Sutton finished outside of the top 60 wide receivers four separate times including a 0.0-point game.
Tim Patrick suffered another devastating injury during training camp, ending his 2023 season after missing the entire 2022 season with the same injury.
Rookie wide receiver Marvin Mims out of Oklahoma is an intriguing boom-or-bust upside pick with an ADP of WR73.
Mims is a speedy deep threat and a favorite of Broncos head coach Sean Payton as the first draft selection during his tenure.
Running Back
Javonte Williams appears to be smashing his supposed injury recovery timeline with the Broncos expecting the running back to make a full recovery before the end of the 2023 season with availability as early as Week 1.
Williams has flashed league-winning upside at several points during his two-year career but has yet to receive the opportunity share that could lead the star rusher to his ceiling of outcomes.
Concerns surrounding Williams' health coupled with the addition of a useful utility back in Samaje Perine has kept the third-year running back’s ADP at an easily palatable RB28.
Williams ranked first in True Target Value amongst running backs with a 4.49 rating. In contrast, Austin Ekeler ranked second in the category with a 3.75 rating, exemplifying incredible upside when projecting Williams' season-long receiving production.
On the other hand, Perine could provide league-winning upside if the positive reports on Williams' surgically repaired knee prove to be a smoke and mirrors gambit.
Perine has proven to be an excellent handcuff, providing immense production for fantasy managers when Bengals’ star running back Joe Mixon was injured.
Perine posted three consecutive top-10 running back finishes, including an RB3 and RB2 overall outing in 2022 when Mixon was out.
The questions surrounding Williams' health, and Perine’s stand-alone value in a dual-running back system run by Sean Payton are enough to warrant an investment at the veteran’s current ADP of RB38.
Tight End
Greg Dulcich was a walking big-play highlight in his rookie season, posting 411 receiving yards on just 33 receptions (12.5 YPR) and 55 targets with an average of 8.6 PPG.
The Broncos tight end ranked 3rd in deep targets (12) and 3rd in aDOT (10.6 Yards).
Dulcich ranked sixth in total big plays for tight ends during his first season while ranking top-10 in receiving yards per game for the position.
The loss of Tim Patrick as the third wide receiver likely opens up a higher route participation percentage for the second-year tight end.
Dulcich is a decent late-round tight end selection for managers fading the position through the early rounds of their fantasy draft.
Dynasty Sleepers and Stashes
The Broncos' investment in Russell Wilson has left the team with a dearth of depth when it comes to offensive rookies and viable Dynasty stashes.
Rookie wide receiver Marvin Mims, however, is being vastly overlooked as a viable Dynasty asset, especially when compared to several of his rookie peers and Broncos teammates.
Mims has sensational speed and deep-ball tracking skills with the ability to line up inside as a slot threat or outside as an X/Y receiver.
He has a path to increased route percentages sans Tim Patrick and could very well take over the declining role of the increasingly disappointing Courtland Sutton.
Representing Sean Payton’s first selection as the head coach of the Broncos will be a heavy burden to bear but should also allow an extending leash of development for the young wideout.
Managers will need to be patient on Mims' development as he climbs the depth chart but a late-season rookie breakout is certainly in his range of outcomes.
Full Episode
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Offensive Outlook
Brandon Staley enters his third year as the Chargers head coach, finishing the 2022 season with a devastating playoff loss to the Jaguars wherein the team blew a 27-0 lead.
Staley is one of the most analytically progressive coaches in the NFL but has led the team to disappointing playoff finishes in both of his seasons as head coach.
The Chargers replaced former offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi with offensive whiz-kid and former Cowboys OC Kellen Moore.
Moore spent four years with the Cowboys, leading the team to three top-6 scoring offenses including a number one overall scoring offense in 2021.
Moore has had incredible effects on the offensive weapons he coaches. In Dak Prescott’s three seasons before Moore was the OC of the Cowboys, he averaged 222.0 YPG, 22 Touchdowns, and 8.3 interceptions per season.
Following Moore’s arrival Prescott averaged 295.0 YPG, and 30 touchdowns per season but also increased his risk-taking, averaging 10.0 interceptions per season.
In 2022 the Chargers finished with a 10-7 record (2nd AFC West) while ranking 12th in Points Per Game (23.4), 2nd in Pass Percentage (63.8%) and 31st Ranked Rush Percentage (36.2%).
Notable Offensive Additions: Rookie WR Quentin Johnston.
Notable Offensive Subtractions: None of Note.
Quarterback
Justin Herbert had a relatively down season in 2022 after posting back-to-back years as a top-8 quarterback in PPG as a rookie and sophomore.
Ironically, a “down” season for Herbert still resulted in a career-high 699 pass attempts for 4739 yards but conservative play-calling led to a career-low 25 passing touchdowns and an aDOT of 6.42 (QB43).
Herbert’s regression caused an unforeseeable dip in PPG, as the superstar quarterback averaged just 17.9 as the QB15.
It is worth noting that Herbert dealt with a nagging rib injury for most of the 2022 season and played without top receiving weapons Keenan Allen (10 Games Played) and Mike Williams (13 Games Played) during much of the year.
Herbert fell from QB8 in True Throw Value in 2021 to QB29 in 2022. Managers should expect a return to the norm with a healthy Chargers offense and the addition of rookie standout Quentin Johnston at Herbert’s disposal.
Herbert has the upside of a top-5 PPG positional finish with an ADP of QB7 overall, offering managers good value in the mid-rounds of their drafts.
Running Back
Austin Ekeler has accumulated three of the top-12 running back fantasy performances in history over his four seasons as a member of the Chargers.
Since 2019 Austin Ekeler has more PPR points, targets, and receptions than any other NFL running back while also ranking 2nd in total touchdowns.
Ekeler is such a phenomenal receiving threat that he ranks 11th in total receptions amongst ALL players over the last three seasons.
Ekeler has RB1 overall upside in his range of outcomes, providing managers with an excellent first-round selection to build their teams around this season.
Wide Receiver
Keenan Allen and Mike Williams retain their roles as the WR1(A) and WR1(B) on the offense but the addition of rookie first-round wideout Quentin Johnston certainly muddies the opportunity share of the Chargers receivers.
Josh Palmer is likely the odd man out as he averaged mediocre numbers when the entire receiver room was healthy.
Johnston has a wide range of outcomes as a first-round selection but will have to fight through two well-established and highly productive veterans if he hopes to produce in his rookie season.
Williams averaged 11.7 PPG in 2022 with Allen falling slightly behind at 11.6. Both wideouts have ADPs outside of the top 20 players at their position and should return value if they remain healthy for 17 games.
Tight End
Gerald Everett had a serviceable season in 2022, catching 58 of 87 targets for 555 receiving yards and four touchdowns, finishing as the TE11 in PPG (9.3).
Everett also posted a massive game in the Chargers' despicable season finale where he caught six passes for 109 yards and a touchdown during the team’s meltdown against the Jaguars.
There is not much upside with Everett despite a safe floor of production. The veteran tight end saw a career-high in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns in 2022 and still failed to surpass double-digit totals in PPG.
Everett managed a mere 14.0% target share despite his career highs and now will have to deal with added target competition in Quentin Johnston.
Dynasty Sleepers and Stashes
The Chargers' lack of depth behind Austin Ekeler arguably led to their demise against the Jaguars in the 2022 playoffs.
The inability to wind down the clock with effective rushing between the tackles ultimately afforded the Jaguars enough time to overcome a seemingly insurmountable 27-0 deficit.
Isaiah Spiller and Joshua Kelley are reportedly fighting for the number two role but have both proven to be incredibly ineffective and detrimental to the overall success of the Chargers roster.
Spiller is the favorite to take the job and an excellent post-hype sleeper stash for managers in need of some running back depth.
There is one more player deserving of an honorable mention as a late-round Dynasty stash.
While Spiller and Kelley blindly duke it out for the backup role an undrafted free agent is quietly making a name for himself as the Chargers' most talented backup behind Ekeler.
Elijah Dotson begins his NFL career as a 24-year-old rookie out of the relatively unknown alma mater of Sacramento State University.
Dotson made his way through the FCS as an incredible dual-threat rusher/receiver posting 1445 yards from scrimmage in his best season with 742 rushing yards and 703 receiving yards in only 10 games.
Full Episode
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
Offensive Outlook
Josh McDaniels enters his second year as the Raiders' head coach after a tumultuous finish in 2022.
McDaniels infamously sat Derek Carr for Jared Stidham in 2022, causing a dysfunctional breakup between Carr and the Raiders.
The 2022 Raiders set the NFL record for most games lost while leading by 10 or more points at halftime.
Nick Lombardi remains the Raiders' offensive coordinator through the 2023 season after finishing 2022 with a top-15-ranked offense despite a bottom-ranked offensive line.
In 2022, the Raiders finished with a 6-11 record (3rd AFC West). The team ranked 12th in Points Per Game (23.2), 24th in Rush Percentage (42.2%) and 12th Ranked Pass Percentage (57.8%).
Notable Offensive Additions: QB Jimmy Garoppolo, WR Jakobi Meyers, TE Austin Hooper, Rookie TE Michael Mayer, Rookie WR Tre Tucker.
Notable Offensive Subtractions: QB Derek Carr, TE Darren Waller, TE Foster Moreau, WR Mack Hollins.
Quarterback
Jimmy Garoppolo is not an asset you should be targeting as a viable fantasy starter this season.
Nonetheless, Garoppolo has excelled at providing value to the weapons in which he is throwing to.
The former 49ers quarterback has surpassed Carr in True Throw Value and Yards Per Attempt in both of the past two seasons.
Garoppolo is also familiar with McDaniels offensive system from their time together with the Patriots.
The Raiders veteran quarterback does not hold much standalone value but he is certainly someone that can provide value for the receiving options that remain on the roster.
Running Back
Josh Jacobs had an incredible breakout season in 2022 after four consecutive seasons of underperforming expectations.
Jacobs finished 2022 as the RB3 in PPG (19.3), setting career highs in rush attempts, targets, receiving yards, rushing yards and tying his career high in total touchdowns with 12.
Jacobs recorded only four games outside of the top 20 running backs during 2022.
The Raiders running back is currently in long-term contract negotiations after refusing to sign his franchise tag.
Jacobs’ ADP of RB11 could offer incredible reward should the Raiders running back receive a similar opportunity share to his 2022 totals.
Second-year running back Zamir White has some appeal as a high-volume handcuff but will likely operate as the leader of a committee should Jacobs get injured.
White’s upside as a pure rusher could lead to serviceable PPG numbers if he is handed the lead role.
Wide Receiver
Davante Adams leads all positional players in touchdowns over the last four seasons, solidifying the veteran wideout as a consistently elite fantasy asset.
Adams proved to be quarterback-proof in his first year as a Raider, posting career highs in targets and yards per reception despite an obvious downgrade at quarterback.
Adams finished as the WR6 in True Target Value and WR5 in PPG (19.7) despite Carr recording a True Throw Value ranking of QB24.
In his first year with the Raiders, Adams finished with 100 receptions for 1516 yards and 14 touchdowns while ranking 1st in Target Share (32.6%), 3rd in Big Plays of 20 yards or more (24), and 7th in Red Zone Opportunities (22).
Jakobi Meyers enters the fray after finally breaking the stigma of being a highly productive receiver that was allergic to scoring touchdowns.
Meyers reunites with his old offensive coordinator after McDaniels sparked the most productive seasons of the wideout's career.
The former Patriots receiver could easily supplant Hunter Renfrow as the number two receiving option for the Raiders.
Meyers has earned impressive target shares as the unquestioned number one option but has never competed for targets with superstar alpha receivers like Davante Adams.
Tight End
Drafting rookie tight ends in redraft is a process that often yields to streaming the position on the waiver wire as meaningful production from first-year players at the position is incredibly rare.
Michael Mayer is an excellent prospect with Broto Player Comparisons ranging from Mark Andrews to Trey McBride.
Unfortunately, the second-round tight end will also sit no higher than 5th in the pecking order in terms of opportunity share during his first season, leaving little room for consistent development as a pass-catcher.
Austin Hooper also remains a veteran presence and could very well see more opportunities with a higher snap percentage than his rookie predecessor.
Dynasty Sleepers and Stashes
Rookie quarterback Aiden O’Connell was highly productive as a walk-on during his tenure at Purdue University but projects as a long-term developmental project.
O’Connell has a decent chance at a value swing should Garoppolo go down but his job security as an NFL starter is non-existent due to his fourth-round draft capital.
Zamir White could provide immense upside as an undervalued handcuff stash if Josh Jacobs faces injuries or signs with another team in free agency.
White was incredibly productive when healthy at Georgia but suffered two ACL tears and reconstructive surgeries due to his violent and careless rushing style.
White will surely need more time to develop but should not be castaway as a viable Dynasty stash.
Full Episode
Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
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By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.