WIDE RECEIVERS
The countdown is on. The time to prepare before the 2023 NFL Draft is rapidly coming to a close. Broto Player Comparisons are tweaked and updated to showcase all of the incoming rookies. Several data points are used to create confidence comparisons relevant to fantasy football production specifically. Analytical data is pulled and referenced from Peter Howard’s extensive public CFB database. Confidence comparisons are then formulated by our transcendent mathematics magician and Broto’s lead data analyst Santiago Casanova @BRotoFFCasanova.
To help prepare managers for their upcoming dynasty league rookie drafts, we will get better acquainted with some of the incoming prospects and their potential fantasy football player comparisons.
The 2023 NFL Draft class runs deep with receiving talent. Let’s look at some of my top-ranked wideouts and their Broto Player Comps.
2023 Broto Rookie Player Comparisons: Running Backs
2023 Broto Rookie Player Comparisons: Tight Ends
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - Ohio State
Broto Fantasy Player Comparisons
Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s fantasy Player Comparisons are what dynasty dreams are made of. CeeDee Lamb (WR3) and Justin Jefferson (WR1) are considered two untouchable dynasty wide receivers, both valued within the top three of the position and the top 12 overall picks in dynasty startup leagues. Jerry Jeudy is a former Biletnikoff Award winner and possesses a near-perfect prospect profile after dominating the SEC during his years at Alabama. The lower percentage confidence levels are a result of Smith-Njigba having only one year of elite production on his resume as he barely played as a freshman due to a stacked depth chart and missed nearly his entire junior season due to injury. Nevertheless, the Ohio State wideout possesses a sophomore season unmatched by anyone in this draft class. There should be no hesitation when investing in a surefire receiver prospect like Smith-Njigba.
Jordan Addison - Pitt/USC
Broto Fantasy Player Comparisons
The former Biletnikoff winner is the only prospect in the 2023 NFL Draft that can compete with Smith-Njigba for the rights to WR1 overall. Addison’s sophomore season at Pitt solidified him as a potential first-round NFL talent. Regression hit hard after the nation’s top wideout transferred from Pitt to USC in 2022. Learning a new system cost Addison imperative development time, forcing him to play primarily on the outside as a deep threat rather than dominating out of the slot. Despite a dip in overall production, the crafty wideout still managed to rank top-10 amongst all draft-eligible wide receivers in Yards Per Route Run and QBR when targeted. Addison’s top three favorable player comparisons consist of the current WR1 in dynasty, the greatest true freshman collegiate breakout of all time and a fellow former Biletnikoff award winner and collegiate national champion. Not a bad place to push your chips in on draft night if I do say so myself.
Josh Downs - UNC
Broto Fantasy Player Comparisons
Josh Downs boasts what is arguably the most well-rounded analytic profile of any wideout in the 2023 NFL Draft class. The speedy slot receiver dominated offensive market shares at UNC for three consecutive seasons, improving his production each year. Downs boasts a ridiculous target share of 34.1% (97th Percentile) and a collegiate dominator rating of 34.6% (70th percentile). A top confidence comparison to Elijah Moore may have managers wary of Downs’ elite potential. Those managers are quick to forget that Moore owned elite market shares at Ole Miss while playing alongside DK Metcalf and A.J. Brown while breaking out with three top 10 weekly finishes as a rookie. Unpredictable character concerns of disgruntled second-year wideouts do not take precedence when making player comparisons. Downs can follow a similar trajectory to Moore, making an immediate impact in his inaugural season with a bright range of outcomes in his career arc.
Zay Flowers - Boston College
Broto Fantasy Player Comparisons
Zay Flowers' top confidence comparison to Jahan Dotson is near poetry. Four-year senior in a Power 5 conference? Check. Labeled undersized despite dominating target and market shares as a prototypical X/Y wideout? Check. An unexplainable knack for the endzone and finding space inside the 20? Check. The similarities are glaringly similar and enticingly positive. Jahan Dotson took no time to acclimate to the NFL as a lethal red zone threat despite his undersized label, eventually taking over as the Commander’s number two wideout alongside Terry McLaurin. Flowers is a pro-ready wideout with an expansive route tree and big-play ability at all three levels. There is no doubt that the Boston College prospect will be a fixture on fantasy rosters for several seasons.
Quentin Johnston - TCU
Broto Fantasy Player Comparisons
Quentin Johnston’s prospect profile comes with as much intangible upside as it does risk. Rightfully so, his player comparisons reflect both polar extremes with Drake London falling directly in the middle with a fairly high confidence mark. Johnston controlled a menial market share on a low-volume passing offense for three seasons at TCU while the team elected to force-feed less talented running backs as opposed to drawing schemes up for their top wideout. Johnston’s size and deceptive athleticism create an avenue of WR1 upside but the hidden red flags within his collegiate resume should be duly noted.
*BONUS SLEEPER WR*
Rakim Jarrett - Maryland
Broto Fantasy Player Comparisons
Rakim Jarrett has all of the necessary raw ingredients to cook up a quality NFL career but lacks the utensils necessary to prep the product. Jarrett's fundamentals, or lack thereof, have kept him from matching the hype of his undeniable potential. The former Maryland standout has an enticing blend of athleticism and open-field moves after the catch with incredibly quick feet and shifty body control. There is an undeniable inherent risk in Jarrett's profile but the potential upside should he put all the pieces together is well above the 4th-round entry cost.
Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at BRoto Fantasy Football.
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By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.