The first round of the 2023 NFL draft had some trade movement, a lot of surprises and major fantasy ramifications for the 2023 season. Let’s take a look at some of the best and worst landing spots for the incoming first-round freshman.
Best
RB Bijan Robinson - Atlanta Falcons - Pick 8
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In terms of actual wins and losses for the Falcons, it could be argued that they were better off taking a different position at this spot, as Robinson became the highest RB selected since Saquon Barkley five years ago. In terms of wins and losses for your fantasy team though, its hard to imagine a better scenario for the generational prospect.
Robinson slots in as the work horse back in Atlanta immediately, with incumbent RB Tyler Allgeier moving into a change-of-pace roll, where he fits best and Corderelle Patterson entering his age 32 season.
The reason for excitement for Robinson is not just due to his starting position, but also the role that the starting position comes with. Last season, HC Arthur Smith, who was previously the OC that brought Derrick Henry to superstardom with the Titans, called a run play 59.4% of the time, finishing just a fraction of a point lower than the league-leading Bears, according to the Fantasy Football by Broto App. Heading into the season with playoff aspirations and an unproven QB under center in last year’s third-round pick Desond Ritter, 300+ touches for Robinson isn’t only in the discussion, it’s almost an all-out certainty. Add that to the fact that PFF ranked the Falcons offensive line as the fifth best unit in the NFL last season, and you have a potential top-5 pick in redraft formats next season.
WR Jordan Addison - Minnesota Vikings - Pick 23
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Capping off what is becoming an annual mid-first round WR run, Addison finds a perfect home playing opposite of Justin Jefferson in Minnesota. Although Addison has success in both the slot and on the outside, it was his slot work in 2021 while playing at Pitt that won him the Biletnikoff award as the best WR in the country. With Adam Theilen gone to play with No.1 overall pick Bryce Young in Carolina, Addison can play on the outside in two receiver sets and move into the slot on three WR sets, leaving him room to work. With Justin Jefferson taking on double teams, TJ Hockenson taking up attention in the middle, and a high-powered offense that was sixth in pace of play, seventh in plays run, and eighth in points scored, Addison could be in line for the best rookie season of all of the WRs picked in the first round.
WR Zay Flowers - Baltimore Ravens - Pick 22
With QB Lamar Jackson back and happy after being made the highest paid QB in the NFL, the Ravens have done everything in their power to upgrade the weapons around him this season. Although Flowers college stats may not hop off the page after playing with terrible QBs at Boston College, his talent most certainly does. Flowers projects as a slot receiver, a position that has eluded the Ravens for years and one that would help Lamar Jackson tremendously, as he tends to excel more throwing to the middle of the field than outside the hashes. With the addition of Odell Beckham Jr. and Flowers to a receiving core that struggled without Marquise Brown last season, the Ravens passing game could take a major step forward in 2023.
QB Anthony Richardson - Indianapolis Colts - Pick 4
With only QB Gardner Minshew to threaten for the job, Richardson should be under center to start the season and should waste no time taking the starting job even if he isn't ready. While his passing numbers were unimpressive last season in Florida, his running prowess and strength should make for quite the rushing tandem with RB Jonathan Taylor in the backfield. New HC Shane Steichen comes over from Philadelphia, where he was the OC that turned Jalen Hurts into a superstar. While there are many physical and athletic traits that Richardson shares with Hurts, it's the mental toughness and experience—starting for two high-powered CFB teams, Oklahoma and Alabama—that makes Hurts a franchise QB. With only 12 starts under his belt, we still need to see that type of mental fortitude from Richardson before we call this a great pick. For now, however, he should be fantasy relevant in 2023 because of his rushing upside.
Worst
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - Seattle Seahawks - Pick 20
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When it comes to real life football, JSN is a HR pick for the Seahawks, who already spent their number five overall pick improving the defense side of the ball. JSN gives Geno Smith an inside slot weapon that he did not have last season with WR DK Metcalf and WR Tyler Lockett stretching the field on the outside. For fantasy purposes, however, this is far from the ideal landing spot. With two proven stars on the outside and breakout rookie RB Ken Walker III in the backfield, JSN slots in as the fourth option, at best, on a team that was middle of the pack in pace of play in 2022. Looking from a dynasty perspective, the Seahawks have an out in Tyler Lockett’s contract after this season, so the future can certainly turn brighter for JSN. For the 2023 season however, there will probably need to be a major WR injury in Seattle for the former Ohio State standout to have fantasy relevance.
Quentin Johnston - San Diego Chargers - Pick 21
If nothing else, the Chargers are consistent and relentless, they are going to have the slowest receivers in the league or die trying! Johnston's physical traits were an outlier in this draft, measuring at 6’3” and 216 lbs while running a 40 north of 4.5 at the combine (although he did run sub-4.5 at his pro day shortly after). Lining up on the opposite side of WR Mike Williams, a monster of a man in his own right, the Chargers now have a combination the beefiest 1-2 WR punch in the NFL. But after a season in which team speed on offense was an obvious downfall, the Chargers are also dealing with slot WR Keenan Allen entering his age 31 season and RB Austin Ekeler holding out for a new contract. The Chargers offense feels like a basketball team without a shooting guard. Its an interesting pick here for LA, especially with speedsters like Flowers and Addison still available at the time of the selection.
Jahmyr Gibbs - Detroit Lions - Pick 12
In probably the biggest shock of the draft, the Lions, who already employ RB D’Andre Swift and just gave a starter’s contract to RB David Montgomery, drafted RB Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs seems like a luxury pick for a team that had many defensive holes and offensive holes at outside WR and TE. With the short lifespan of RBs and the draft capital spent, it is fair to assume that Swift has taken his last snap as a Lion.
While the pick may not make much sense now, Gibbs is a top notch prospect—especially in the receiving game. He ran 15% of his routes out wide and 10% from the slot last year, so the idea that Gibbs could be a RB/WR hybrid for the Lions is out there, but that has been said about many RBs before to the point that it’s become somewhat of a trope. In all likelihood, the Lions want a versatile pass-catcher in the backfield and were so underwhelmed with the performance of Smith over the last two seasons that they used a top-12 pick to draft his direct replacement. At best, he’s in a timeshare with Montgomery, at worst, he’s in a three-headed attack if Swift stays. Either way, the hope of him coming away from this draft with a workhorse role similar to Bijan Robinson did not happen, making his value for 2023 questionable barring an injury to his backfield mates.
By Timothy Petropoulos
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