Sleepers and Busts: Week 13

SLEEPERS

QB: Jordan Love - Green Bay Packers

The “Love Connection” remains strong for at least one more game as we are diving back into the well with a repeat of last week's high-upside quarterback sleeper. The Packers (5-6) play host to the Super Bowl champion Chiefs (8-3) in a rare cross-conference matchup between two storied franchises. Vegas betting lines have the visiting team favored by +6.0 points with a projected Over/Under scoring total set at 42.5 Points. There is an undeniable positive game script on tap for the Packers' passing offense as the team is expected to play from behind for much of the game. It is worth noting, however, that the Chiefs offense has struggled mightily in the second half of games this season, allowing their opponents to crawl back and keep contests competitive. On paper, the Chiefs defense appears to be a horrendously difficult matchup for Love and company as they allow a mere 309.3 (4th) scrimmage yards per game with just 176.6 (3rd) passing yards while giving up a stout 16.5 points per contest (3rd) to the opposition. The Chiefs stalwart defense currently ranks 23rd in True Matchup Rank, allowing 15.4 fantasy points per game to the quarterback position. Now that we have the unpleasantry out of the way, it is safe to say that none of the aforementioned statistics are enough to fade Love during a week when six of the NFL’s 32 teams are on bye. I will concede that necessity and desperation can go hand in hand during the yearly “Bye-pocalypse” but Love allows managers to plug and play a worthy starter in over their resting stars. After suffering through a dreaded mid-season slump, Love has posted two consecutive high-upside outings against the Chargers in Week 11 (322 Yards/2 Touchdowns) and the Lions in Week 12 (268 Yards/3 Touchdowns) while exemplifying excellent ball security, allowing zero turnovers in the past two games. The continued breakout of Jayden Reed coupled with the growing rapport of Christian Watson and the consistent security of Romeo Doubs has helped Love mitigate single-read decisions. The wide array of developing weapons allows the young quarterback to work through his progressions as opposed to forcing unadvised passes into tight coverage. Love’s recent successes have helped lift his True Throw Value to 0.57, representing a ranking of 7th overall amongst all qualified quarterbacks while also maintaining an impressive downfield aerial attack with an aDOT of 8.92 yards (QB8). The matchup is more imposing on paper than the game script suggests. 

Matt Ward

RB: Devin Singletary - Houston Texans

Keep riding the hot hand. I will concede that six carries for 18 yards isn’t overly encouraging but Dameon Pierce was unable to get anything on the ground either. The Jaguars are great against the run, ranking 1st in DVOA and 31st against running backs in True Matchup Rank for purely rushing. They are, however, quite susceptible to backfield receiving production and it showed in Week 12. While Pierce caught his lone target for 4 yards, Singletary caught 6 of 7 for 54 yards. Although he never drew more than three targets in a game in the rest of the season it’s apparent that the team was more than willing to utilize him ahead of Pierce in that area during his first game after returning from injury. According to PFF’s Nathan Jahnke, Singletary played 49 snaps and ran 35 routes while Pierce played 11 snaps and ran six routes as respective pass-catchers. It’s unlikely that the Texans are in quite as big a shootout against a top-ranked run defense but this week still provides intrinsic value for our running back sleeper. The Broncos are the best positional matchup possible for Singletary in True Matchup Rank. They are equally giving to rushing and receiving points from running backs, ranking 7th (RB REC POA) and 2nd (RB RUSH POA), respectively. They’ve forced a ton of turnovers in each game and their offense has taken advantage very often, even against great defenses. The Texans don’t have the best defense in the world and C.J. Stroud has shown that he’s not invincible despite looking incredible as a rookie. I trust the Texans to stay in this game even if they become the Broncos’ next victim in their win streak. Furthermore, as exemplified above, a negative game script may continue to favor Singletary over Pierce as the team leans on the passing game. I don’t expect as big of a split in playing time but both backs can feast on a weak run defense. 

Themi Michalakis

WR: Marquise Brown - Arizona Cardinals

Hollywood has been producing box office flops in 2023, both in theaters and on the football field. Marquise Brown has finished outside of the top 36 wide receivers in 5 of his last 7 games and is averaging a horrible 6.5-half PPR Point per game in that span. It hasn’t been a fun stretch to have him on your fantasy teams. It’s not all doom and gloom though. Brown is averaging over 8+ targets per game and boasts a 24.9% target share on the season. The strong usage is there and all signs point towards the fantasy points following soon enough. There aren’t very many matchups more primed for a classic Hollywood blockbuster than the Pittsburgh Steelers. Their secondary has been allowing a consistent stream of fantasy points to opposing wide receivers as they give up 12% Points Over Average to the position, which is 9th in True Matchup Rank. All it takes is one big play to blow the doors off the hinges and for Hollywood to remind everyone who he is. The upside is immense in this game. Whether it’s in Oklahoma or Arizona, Kyler Murray and Marquise Brown have shown us before that it’s only a matter of time until those two get connected and Brown winds up in the pay dirt. After seeing 12 targets in last week's game, K1 will continue to make sure his WR1 gets fed and fantasy managers everywhere will rejoice as Marquise Brown gets his first top 12 weekly finish of the year. It’s in the script. 

Boyd Armstrong

TE: Chigoziem Okonkwo - Tennessee Titans

Chigoziem Okonkwo has been one of the biggest busts of the 2023 season when looking at his pre-season ADP that saw the second-year tight end rank amongst the top 12 players at the position. Okonkwo has done nothing to meet those heights this season, falling to the wayside as just another wasted draft pick. Now that the unmitigated praise has worn off, Okonkwo is looking like a post-hype sleeper with an excellent chance to exceed his declining expectations and projections. The Titans (4-7) play host to the division rival Colts (6-5) in a battle between two teams all but eliminated from the playoff race. Vegas betting lines have the road team favored by just +1.0 game in a near Pick-Em matchup while the projected Over/Under scoring total sits at 42.5 points. The Colts defense concedes 374.3 scrimmage yards (25th) with 223.7 passing yards (18th) and 24.4 points per game to the opposition (27th). They currently rank 11th amongst defenses in True Matchup Rank for the tight end position, allowing 9.9 PPG with a Points Over Average of 13.0%. Okonkwo has been undeniably disappointing but it bears mentioning that the second-year tight end ranks second amongst all Titans players in receptions (32), yards (281), and targets (48), behind only DeAndre Hopkins. Okonkwo is coming off a four-reception, 45-yard outing against the Panthers in Week 12 but also had his best game of the season against the Colts when they faced off previously. In their last matchup against each other, Okonkwo saw a season-high nine targets, catching five for 33 yards. A touchdown will surely need to be attached to see the second-year up-and-comer post a top-5 positional finish but there should be plenty of opportunity for exactly that to happen in Week 13.

Matt Ward

BUSTS

QB: Matthew Stafford - Los Angeles Rams

Matthew Stafford is riding high on the back of his season-best outing in Week 12 where the veteran quarterback threw for 229 yards and four touchdowns against a hapless Cardinals defense. Unfortunately for those hoping for a repeat performance, the Rams will not be afforded another easy matchup against a bottom-feeding defense. The Browns (7-4) are in town to face off against the hometeam Rams (5-6) with the projected Over/Under scoring total set at a lowly 40.5 points in which the Rams are favored by +3.5. The Browns boast what is arguably the best defensive unit in the entire NFL, allowing just 269.5 total scrimmage yards (1st), 142.0 passing yards (1st), 105.9 rushing yards (12th), and 19.0 points per game (7th). The Browns defense ranks 26th in True Matchup Rank for the quarterback position, conceding 14.4 PPG (-14.0% POA) while allowing a mere 9.6 PPG of passing production (-26.0% POA/31st Overall) and an equally stout 4.8 PPG of rushing production (-4.0% POA/22nd Overall). Stafford is by no means a threat to put up points on the ground, but an extreme negative dip in expected passing points should be more than enough to scare managers off of the statue-esque pocket passer.

Matt Ward

RB: Breece Hall - New York Jets

I know this next statement may come as a shock to many: the Jets can win this game. Sure, Tim Boyle (for some reason) is still the starting quarterback but the Falcons are disgustingly beatable at times. With that said, I do not trust Breece Hall to get the engines rolling in Week 13. The Falcons are the fourth hardest team to face for opposing running backs, per Broto Fantasy’s True Matchup Rank. The second-year running back has put up his best games when there is a touchdown attached and that almost exclusively happens against positive matchups. He did manage to score on the Eagles, the hardest defense in fantasy for running backs, but he also only gained 39 yards on 12 carries in that contest while supplementing his lack of rushing production with double-digit PPR points through the air. Since Week 4, Hall has drawn at least three targets in each game and averages 5.4 per game. His rushing numbers just don’t stack up and that’s what has prevented him from being an elite fantasy asset against most opponents. The state of the offense also just doesn’t inspire much hope. Although Garrett Wilson gets a great matchup that can push the offense down the field and a defense that can keep the game close, it’s not something I can confidently count on. The Falcons can take advantage of a great rushing matchup to succeed in doing what they already do best. Unless he scores a touchdown, getting a great performance out of Hall is almost impossible. It’s sad to see his talents being wasted but as the playoffs approach, you may have to make a difficult decision. Thankfully, unless you’re in a very small league, he may still find mild success thanks to his receiving floor.

Themi Michalakis

WR: Drake London - Atlanta Falcons

It’s been a tough year for Drake London managers. The expectations were high and so was the 5th-6th round ADP price tag attached. Unfortunately being locked into an Arthur Smith offense and having a combination of Desmond Ridder/Taylor Heinicke throwing the ball killed any resemblance of fantasy upside that was ever seen. Drake London only has three WR2 or better weekly finishes in ten games and is averaging 9.19-half PPR points per game on the year. Incredibly disappointing numbers for a guy drafted in the range London was taken at. Things don’t seem to be getting any better either as the Falcons are facing off against the New York Jets and their high-octane secondary of Sauce Gardner, DJ Reed, and Jordan Whitehead. This is the worst matchup in the league for opposing wide receivers, as the Jets sit 32nd in True Matchup rank and are allowing -37% Points Over Average to the position group. It is incredibly difficult to feel any sort of confidence when it comes to starting a wide receiver against this crew. Things are going to get worse before they get better for Drake London and it’s best to keep him locked away on your benches for the week. These are the do-or-die weeks and a lot of squads are trying to secure a spot in the playoffs, don’t let Drake be what tanks the chances and plug a different option into your lineup. One that inspires more confidence.

Boyd Armstrong

TE: Gerald Everett - Los Angeles Chargers

The loss of several key receiving cogs on the Chargers offense, coupled with Gerald Everett’s season-best outing in Week 12 has managers clamoring to acquire the readily available tight end streamer for a Week 13 slate filled with byes. To say that there are better options against better matchups than Everett against the Patriots would be a gross understatement. It took nine weeks of action for Everett to secure a single high-upside tight end performance where he collected all four of his targets for 43 yards and one touchdown against a solid Ravens defense. Even though Everett has a wide-open path to consistent targets, the Chargers appear increasingly content with hyper-targeting Keenan Allen while allowing the tertiary options to fight for leftovers. Now the Chargers (4-7) draw the Patriots (2-9) on the road in Week 13 with betting lines favoring the visiting team by +5.5 points and a projected Over/Under scoring total of 40.5. The Patriots' defense has held strong on multiple occasions during this lost season and ranks 16th in passing yards allowed (222.7) while giving up just 6.9 PPG (4th) of receiving production to the tight end position and 14.6 PPG (5th) of passing production to quarterbacks. Everett will undoubtedly be a favorite streaming target of many in need of a tight end during the slew of Week 13 byes. Looking elsewhere for meaningful production is likely a wise choice, considering the matchup on tap.

Matt Ward

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