Broto Bets Week 13

Last week was a bigger letdown than I expected. Missing badly on two teasers sunk the week. As markets become more efficient, it just doesn’t seem likely that value will emerge. The NFL point spread is one of the hardest things to beat but that only makes me more confident in my teasers as the weeks progress. Although I may be less inclined to bet money lines, point totals, and spreads, expect more teasers and some more beatable areas like player props. 

2023 Total: 28-26-1, -4.035u 

Teaser: 

Miami Dolphins (-9.5) @ Washington Commanders O/U: 50.5 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5) O/U: 38.5 

Themi’s Teaser: Dolphins -2.5, Jaguars -2.5 

(7-point teaser, -140) 

The Dolphins are a classic case of “beat bad teams, lose to good ones”. Are they in the middle or on the lower end of the elite? It’s more likely the latter as their explosive offense can rival anyone else on any given Sunday. Ranking 3rd in DVOA and noticeably full of speedy playmakers, it’s hard to imagine anyone stopping them. The caveat is that they’re not great defensively. Sam Howell is prone to mistakes and has suffered badly against the few elite defenses he has played, but aside from that he can make some insane plays and keep an offense rolling. We’ll have to see if the 32nd ranked pass defense can slow down Tua, Tyreek, and Waddle. I’ll side with the team that ranks higher in almost every single important statistic and can actually win semi-meaningful games. Washington’s offense is fun under Eric Bieniemy but the team still needs a ton of work. Expect Andrew Van Ginkel to give this offensive line a ton of problems. Tease Miami by 7 points for a teaser at -140 or better. 

Without Joe Burrow, the Bengals are toast. I don’t think that’s a shock to anyone. After allowing the Steelers to come into your home and trample you (despite a low final score), it may only look worse against the Jaguars. The Bengals offense wavered without their signal caller and couldn’t get anything going on the ground. Outside of a few Ja’Marr Chase grabs on tipped passes, the Bengals offense could not get anything going. Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars now host this team and at 8.5, it’s a perfect spot to tease them. Jacksonville has improved mightily on defense and continues to boast a strong offense. Although Trevor Lawrence doesn’t always look like himself, he seems to be getting back to form and showed that against the Texans last week. The Bengals don’t have a scary secondary and may find themselves struggling to generate any offense if Browning can’t get Chase going. Pair them with the Dolphins for a 7-point, -140 teaser. 

Straight: 

Lions -4 (-110) 

Detroit is coming off an embarrassing loss that they were still well in play to win. They are an exploitable team through the air, as we’ve seen against the Bears, Ravens, Chargers, and even Panthers. In EPA/play, their pass defense ranks 21st but they're still quite good against the run which has been a massive part of keeping them in games. Their prolific offense is probably their biggest asset and we saw what happens when it can’t generate anything. The Saints boast a better overall defense than the Packers but they’ve been much more giving on the ground in recent weeks, which is a spot where the Lions can and should take advantage. It’s hard to beat these elite corners but Amon-Ra St. Brown should see Alontae Taylor in the slot who has allowed 3 TDs and has struggled to stop receivers this year. For New Orleans, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed would be brutal losses to a WR room already missing Michael Thomas. A.T. Perry would be the next in line for targets but it’s still possible that one or both receivers can play. Detroit has looked pretty bad through the air at times but Derek Carr is awfully prone to mistakes and even when he carved up the Falcons, the Saints were typically behind. This is still a mismatch in my eyes and enough of a difference in talent to justify the spread. 

Colts ML (-120) 

Indy should have won by a lot more last week but still impressed in a 27-20 victory over the Bucs. They showed they could take advantage of a depleted secondary while also rushing effectively. Although Gardner Minshew was doing too much at times, he was still driving down the field against an otherwise good defense. The Titans should be difficult to run against, especially with Jonathan Taylor now out, but Zack Moss was initially effective during his absence and even ran for 165 yards and 2 scores against Tennessee in their first meeting this season. Will Levis has only thrown for 2 TDs in four games since his 4 TD debut against an awful Falcons secondary. Derrick Henry is still matchup dependent and can be extremely cold. I don’t have much faith in this offense to keep up if Indy shows even half a pulse. I like the Colts here. 

George Kittle Anytime TD (+175) 

George Kittle Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-115) 

The Eagles are arguably the softest TE defense in the league. They’re allowing the highest DVOA to the position and have allowed 6 TDs (T-most in the league). Over the past few weeks, players like Travis Kelce, Jake Ferguson, and Logan Thomas have found success and scored against Philadelphia. There have been plenty of down weeks but Kittle should get his fair share of work in the red zone and even find space to score a long one against a LB group that is only getting weaker. Kittle trails Christian McCaffrey in red zone targets but still has nine this year. Kittle recently had 11 targets and 149 yards against the Bengals, the 3rd best TE matchup by DVOA. He also gained 67 yards and scored 3 TDs against Dallas who allows the 8th highest DVOA to the position. He didn’t do much against the Rams or Cardinals but those were much more winnable games despite some high scoring on both sides. This is the type of game that could and should become a real shootout as they head into enemy territory trying to fight for the #1 seed in the NFC. It’s easy to see how Kittle can be the odd man out on any given week, especially with excellent matchups for SF’s receivers this week, but I’m trusting an elite matchup here. He’s almost always smashing these.

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by Themi Michalakis