Week 6 Buy Low and Sell High

With Week 5 of the NFL season in the books, Lead Writer Matt Ward has his eyes on four buy-low targets and three sell-high targets heading into Week 5! Take advantage of your league mates by acquiring star players at their lowest value and dealing away volatile players at their highest values!

BUY LOW

Jaylen Waddle WR - Miami Dolphins

Jaylen Waddle has had a shaky start to begin the 2023 campaign, averaging just 9.7 Half-PPR PPG as the WR47 overall. The first two games of the season yielded WR31 (Week 1) and WR42 (Week 2) outings before Waddle was forced to sit out the Broncos historic 70-20 shellacking of the Broncos in Week 3. A Week 4 return was set to deliver electric results for all members of the offense again as the Dolphins traveled to face the Bills in a meeting of AFC East division rivals. Instead, Waddle produced just four catches for 46 yards (6.6 Half-PPR Points) as the WR50 while the Dolphins offense was stymied by a stout Bills defense. The speedy wideout has at least seen five or more targets in all three contests but has fallen several shades shy of his 116 target total in 2022. Fortunately, positive regression appears to be on the horizon for the Dolphins wideout as Waddle led the team in targets (10) during their Week 5 matchup against the Giants. Waddle was able to haul in just five of said targets for 35 yards, further opening up a monstrous buying window for one of the NFL’s top wideouts on a fantasy-friendly offense. The Dolphins are leading the NFL in passing yards (327.8), rushing yards (185.8), total yards (522.0), and total points (36.2) per game, standing alone as the league’s best offense in every category. Waddle has seemingly been the only member of the supercharged offense to not produce a league-altering fantasy performance. Speaking in absolutes is a fool’s errand but there are zero chances that Waddle continues to operate at such menial levels if the Dolphins offense continues to smash through defenses at a league-high rate.

Tony Pollard RB - Dallas Cowboys

Managers are quickly writing off Tony Pollard after two mediocre offensive outings where he finished as the RB27 and RB28 overall in Half-PPR scoring. Apparently, the same hivemind is also ignoring the fact that the Cowboys leading running back has produced more top-10 positional outings than <RB2 finishes in the past two seasons. Devaluing a league-winning fantasy asset after a two-game sample size of negative production seems blunderous, yet here we are. Pollard started the season the same way he finished 2022, winning fantasy weeks with top-end production. He finished as the RB5 (Week 1), RB15 (Week 2), and RB14 (Week 3) in the first three games of the 2023 season but ultimately fell victim to the dreaded inconsistencies that come with playing inside a Brian Schottenhemier designed offense helmed by the suddenly turnover-prone Dak Prescott. The Cowboys have relied heavily on their defensive prowess to carry them to a 3-2 record this season, a foundation that has since been shaken with the losses of DB Trevon Diggs and LB Leighton Vander Esch while DPOY candidate Micah Parsons deals with nagging injuries as well. The offense is wholly capable, albeit inconsistent, in shouldering the work and Pollard will undoubtedly be a major part of the culture shift moving forward as the team ranks top 10 in total rushing yards (124.4) and total team points (26.8) per game while struggling in nearly every other facet. Continuing to lean on Pollard as a rusher with increased passing volume is a must if the Cowboys wish to compete in a stacked NFC conference. There is an undeniable market shift in the favor of managers willing to buy the dip on a player whose historic resume of top-end production is being discounted on a menial sample size of mediocrity. 

Jordan Addison WR - Minnesota Vikings

Jordan Addison’s stock is perennially on the rise as the rookie wideout continues to produce respectable numbers alongside the league’s top receiver Justin Jefferson. An unfortunate injury designation to the latter teammate has further heightened the expectations for the Vikings' first-round rookie and managers should aggressively pursue the market before further news arrives. Regardless of Jefferson’s health, Addison is on an incredible trajectory to have league-winning upside as the season transgresses. A sensational route-runner, Addison currently ranks seventh amongst all wideouts in target separation vs man coverage (2.29 YDS) while also ranking 12th amongst his positional peers in fantasy points per target against man coverage (2.34 PTS/TGT) and ninth in yards per route run against man coverage (2.87), all per ReceptionPerception. Increased usage will surely come as his year-one development progresses and if Jefferson is forced to miss time, Addison will quickly be lofted into a WR1 role as veteran wideout KJ Osborn has failed to make an impact during his four-year career.

SELL HIGH

Zack Moss RB - Indianapolis Colts

That failed dunk attempt alone should be enough to warrant concern for Zack Moss’ fantasy stock. If fantasy football leagues were won within the first five weeks, Moss would be the greatest waiver wire/late-round addition of all time. Alas, 11 weeks of play remain and Moss just extended his selling window with a monstrous 165-Yard/2-Touchdown performance against the league’s best run defense. The former fourth-round pick is averaging 111.25 rushing yards per game in his four starts as the Colts RB1, adding three rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown with eight receptions for 72 yards. The return of Jonathan Taylor did little to stem Moss’ incredible early-season production as the latter option tallied 23 carries while Taylor saw just six attempts. That usage share will undoubtedly dissipate as Taylor works his way back to game speed. It cannot be ignored that the Colts just paid Taylor 48.5 Million dollars (28.5 Million guaranteed) to return to the lineup after initial contract negotiations fell through between the two parties. Moss’ production is largely in part to a top-tier run-blocking scheme as opposed to his own talents. He holds little job security despite his current successes and could fall to the wayside of irrelevance as soon as Week 6. Taylor is the undeniable RB1 within the offense and should completely snuff any and all value his backfield counterparts hold on the fantasy market. 

Curtis Samuel WR - Washington Commanders

The Commanders' offense attempted 55 consecutive designed pass plays while desperately attempting to claw back against the Bears, ultimately falling several eons short with a 40-20 loss. Not only was the Commanders' passing volume incredibly uncharacteristic for the mediocre talents of Sam Howell but the usage was a stark comparison to what would be expected from a team with two top wideouts. Despite the increase in dropbacks, Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson combined for just ten targets (5 each) while Logan Thomas (9 REC/11 TGT/77 YDS/1 TD) and Curtis Samuel (6 REC/7 TGT/65 YDS/1 TD) led the offense in every perceivable receiving category. Two variables are almost assuredly certain; The Commanders will not attempt 55 consecutive designed pass plays again and Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson will reprise their roles as the WR1 and WR2 within the offense. Limited volume for Samuel who traditionally operates on a low depth of target in open space is a fantasy death knell. His efficiency and yardage totals cannot uphold any decrease in targets as Samuel has yet to top 65 yards (His Week 5 total) in any game this season. There may not be much of a market return available for the crafty wideout but any perceivable upgrade is better than holding a player barely above the high water line of irrelevance.

George Pickens WR - Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers offense has been hilariously defunct this season, sporting a 3-2 record as the leaders of the AFC North despite ranking last in point differential (-31 Points) amongst all teams with a winning record. George Pickens has been the surprising lone bright spot on the offense as Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiertmuth deal with injuries and Najee Harris continues to be a menial asset. Pickens is averaging 12.78 Half-PPR Points Per Game as the WR13 overall, significantly outproducing his offseason projections. Although his overall averages are respectable, Pickens per game outings tell a much different story. The Steelers current top wideout has posted three games below WR36 (Week 1: W51, Week 3, WR:39, Week 4: WR72) with two games inside the top 10 (Week 2: WR9, Week 5: WR4). The three games in question in which Pickens failed to score inside of the top 36 players at the position were all against defenses that rank top 10 in yards and fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. Pickens is a volatile boom-or-bust player who has been thrust into increased usage sans two of the Steelers top pass catchers, both of whom are expected to make returns this season. There is no denying Pickens’ propensity for big plays and unpredictable week-winning outings but his inconsistency and questionable role within the offense once his teammates become healthy is enough cause for concern to sell high on the young wideout.

Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.

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By Matt Ward