Week 5 Buy Low and Sell High

With Week 4 of the NFL season in the books, Lead Writer Matt Ward has his eyes on four buy-low targets and three sell-high targets heading into Week 5! This week’s edition has a special focus on one underperforming offense you should be investing in and one rising offense you should be trading away. Take advantage of your league mates by acquiring star players at their lowest value and dealing away volatile players at their highest values!

BUY LOW

The Bengals Offense

The Bengals have scored just 12.3 points per game through the first four games of the season, ranking dead last in offensive touchdowns (3 Total) and yards per game (252.0 YDS/G). Joe Burrow and company have, metaphorically, yet to find their footing as the star quarterback struggles in real life to keep his feet planted amidst a nagging calf injury. The Bengals have opened up the season with a 1-3 record (4th AFC North), averaging just 166.0 passing yards (29th) and 70 rushing yards (31st) per contest. Now that the negatives have been highlighted, let’s peel back the curtain on some historic positives, shedding light on how uncharacteristic this slow start for the Bengals offense has been. Zac Taylor and the coaching staff have continuously put one of the best offenses in the NFL on the field, despite what the early ongoings of the 2023 season may suggest. Under Taylor's leadership in 2022, the Bengals tied a team record for regular-season wins (12) and consecutive wins (8) to earn the number three seed in the AFC Playoffs. For those quick to forget, Taylor did this after beginning the year with a 4-4 record, further fueling the fire of a potential turnaround for the squad. After a slow start the Bengals offense ranked top-10 in scoring (7th: 25.7 PPG), total yards (8th: 360.5 YDS/G), and passing yards (5th: 265.0 YDS/G). Last season in Taylor’s offense Joe Burrow set single-season team records for completions (414) and passing TDs (35) while earning his first career Pro Bowl selection. The Bengals offense also produced two 1000-yard WRs in Ja'Marr Chase (1046) and Tee Higgins (1029), who each reached the milestone despite missing time due to injuries. Joe Mixon also finished as an RB1 in 2022 despite missing two games, totaling 16.1 PPG (RB7). Burrow (QB31: 8.36 PPG), Chase (WR28: 10.78 PPG), Higgins (WR49: 7.72 PPG), and Mixon (RB19: 10.47 PPG) are all vastly underperforming their season-long projections at the moment and should be considered prime trade targets for managers panicking on one of the league’s top offenses.

Marquise Brown WR - Arizona Cardinals

Marquise “Hollywood” Brown is flying under the radar as one of the most overlooked and consistent fantasy producers this season. The low expectations of the Cardinals' offense coupled with the market demeanor towards Brown’s small stature and previous injury history has kept the man they call Hollywood an easily acquirable target despite his utility. The Cardinals' top wideout currently sits as the WR17 Overall, averaging 14.95 PPR PPG. He has received five or more targets in all four of his outings, including two double-digit target games in Week 2 and Week 4. Brown has hauled in 21 of his 32 targets for 239 yards and two touchdowns. The speedy receiver is pulling a 26.0% target share (WR16) through the first four games and has yet to fall outside of serviceable flex territory with WR48, WR22, WR20, and WR14 finishes despite downgrading at quarterback from Kyler Murray to Joshua Dobbs. There are no viable members of the Cardinals offense to compete with Brown for targets, allowing a safe floor with the bonus of week-winning upside from one of the NFL’s top big-play threats. Brown is a plug-and-play WR2 with WR1 upside and a flex-worthy floor against any given matchup and should be valued much higher than his current trade market value suggests.

CeeDee Lamb WR - Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys offense has been able to coast to a 3-1 record amidst several ferocious outings from one of the league’s best defenses. Micah Parsons and company have kept games out of hand, allowing just 10.3 points per game through the first three weeks. In three of those games, they allowed a mere 13 points combined. The positive game scripts written by the stellar defensive efforts from the Cowboys have capped the ceiling of CeeDee Lamb during the first four games as the offense rarely needs to rely on passing the football to win. Lamb has underwhelmed thus far because of it, posting just one WR1 outing alongside three WR3 finishes. Managers who drafted Lamb as a league-winning WR1 may be beginning to panic or, at the very least, look for a serviceable pivot. This is where the strong-willed rob the meek. Despite his positional finishes, Lamb is still averaging 15.5 PPR PPG, ranked as the WR13 overall thanks largely in part to a blow-up outing against a stout Jets secondary in Week 2 where he cooked Sauce Gardner and company for 24.3 PPR points, catching 11 of 13 targets for 143 yards. The fourth-year star receiver still leads the Cowboys in all perceivable receiving metrics, including yards (309), receptions (23), targets (30), and yards per reception (13.4) while stuck in a three-way tie for team touchdown leader. Lamb also leads the team in big plays (7) while no one else on the roster has more than one. His relatively low league-average snap percentage and route participation are merely a factor of the early-season successes put forth by the Cowboys' defense. Once the team scores retrocede toward the norm, the offense should open up, allowing Lamb to ascend to his rightful place as a bonafide fantasy superstar.

SELL HIGH

The Bears Offense

The Bears offense appeared genuinely competent in Week 4 after posting three consecutive stinkers as quarterback Justin Fields continues to regress as a passer. That is until Fields bombed on a soft Broncos for 335 passing yards, four passing touchdowns, and 28/35 completions, all of which set career highs for the struggling third-year signal-caller. Keep in mind, however, that the Broncos have allowed 37.5 points per game (32nd), 478.5 total yards per game (32nd), 285.5 passing yards per game (32t), 176.0 rushing yards per game (32nd), and have conceded 133 points in their last two contests, including 35 points to the Commanders in Week 2 and 70 points to the Dolphins in Week 3. All of this is to say that the Bears' offensive performance in Week 4 was likely a major outlier in comparison to what they have shown thus far and what will transgress for the remainder of the season. Justin Fields (35.9 Points), Cole Kmet (27.6 Points), D.J. Moore (27.1 Points), and Khalil Herbert (22.2 Points) all performed well above their Week 4 projections with gigantic leaps in their PPG averages. Unfortunately, their best offensive outing of the season led to their 14th consecutive regular-season loss with Matt Eberflus as head coach and Fields under center. None of the aforementioned players can be relied upon to continue such performances moving forward. Every single member of the Bears' offense should be placed on the trade block in hopes that impulsive managers view the one-game sample size of positive production as a trend of things to come rather than the outlier outing that it likely is.

Kyren Williams RB - Los Angeles Rams

Kyren Williams has had an unsuspecting yet terrific start to his 2023 campaign, averaging 20.4 PPR PPG as the RB3 overall with 245 rushing yards on 64 attempts (3.8 YPC) with 11 receptions and 101 receiving yards across four games after coming off a rookie season where he was a complete non-factor. Williams has supplemented his middling counting stats this year with six total touchdowns (5 Rushing, 1 Receiving), including three multi-touchdown games. His 8.3-point outing in Week 3 where he failed to find the endzone is a stark reminder of the low floor Williams possesses due to his dreadful inefficiencies and insane touchdown-dependent scoring methods. The second-year running back currently ranks 46th in Points Per Opportunity Excluding Touchdowns (PPOxTD), averaging just 61.3 rushing yards and 25.3 receiving yards on 64 rush attempts (16.0 RSH/G) and 11 receptions (2.75 REC/G), equating to just 0.46 PPOxTD. Williams is on pace for a record-setting 25.5 touchdowns this season, a mark in which he would also have the fewest amount of yards of any player with more than 20 touchdowns in a single season when accounting for his current per-game averages. All signs point towards substantial regression for Williams as his unsustainable touchdown pace will surely falter, especially with the inevitable return of star wide receiver Cooper Kupp, offering fewer red zone opportunities for the running back.

Chris Godwin WR - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Chris Godwin has quietly deteriorated into nothing more than a flex-level wideout after all the signs of his 2022 regression have popped up in 2023. In 2022, Godwin finished outside of the top 24 wide receivers in all major efficiency stats including Target Share (21.8%/WR31), Target Rate (25.5%/WR25), Air Yards Share (16.8%/WR71), aDOT (5.6 YDS/WR99), Yards Per Route Run (1.84/WR38), Yards Per Target (7.2/WR71), Yards Per Reception (9.8/WR93), Yards Per Team Pass Attempt (1.52/WR38), Points Per Route (0.40/WR33), and Points Per Target (1.57/WR72). Through the first three games of the 2023 season, the Buccaneers wideout had produced three consecutive games below WR40, averaging just 9.7 PPR PPG as a true detriment to your fantasy roster. Luckily, Godwin’s Week 4 outing against the Saints opened up a selling point for managers to profit upon before his name value whittles away. The Buccaneers worked through Godwin in their last matchup while Mike Evans drew the historically difficult coverage of lockdown corner Marshon Lattimore. The Saints All-Pro corner was once again able to shut Evans down but Godwin had a field day running free against the remaining members of the secondary. Leading up to Godwin’s 8 REC/11 TGT/141 YDS outburst, the veteran wideout had just 13 receptions (4.3 REC/G) for 141 yards (47 YDS/G). He has still yet to find the endzone this season. The shadow assignment of Lattimore will only be in Godwin’s favor for one more game in 2023 whereas Evans has dominated his teammate in every perceivable receiving category, both in volume and efficiency. Expect the roles to revert. Evans will likely continue to operate as Mayfield’s favorite target while Godwin plays second-fiddle on a low-volume passing offense.

Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.

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By Matt Ward