Managing a Dynasty roster is about building long-lasting success in the chaotic and unpredictable landscape of fantasy football. The idea should be to give yourself as many assets/bargaining chips as possible so that when you move all in, the deck is stacked in your favor. “We are card counters at the blackjack table, and we’re going to turn the odds at the casino.”
Today, we look at some intriguing assets in Dynasty, drawing unbiased values from Sleeper ADP, Dynasty League Football, and KeepTradeCut in an attempt to exploit certain market discrepancies. As always, we will be viewing these players and values through a Superflex lens.
WEEK 5 DYNASTY MARKET REPORT
Notable Market Risers
Puka Nacua WR - Los Angeles Rams
Puka Nacua is on a historic pace, setting the NFL record for most receptions and targets by any player in their first four games as a pro. The Rams’ rookie continues to rise on the trade market and has now entered the realm of cornerstone Dynasty assets as the WR12/29th player overall.
C.J. Stroud QB - Houston Texans
C.J. Stroud continues to climb the value ladder in Superflex leagues as the rookie is on a historic pace to begin his NFL career. Stroud’s consensus market value has crested at QB9/16th player overall after the first four weeks of play.
Sam LaPorta TE - Detroit Lions
Sam LaPorta’s historic rookie record of consecutive games with five receptions ended in Week 4 but he still managed a serviceable four receptions for 56 yards on five targets. The throne to TE1 overall in Dynasty is now only six spots of positional value away as LaPorta sits as the TE2/34th player overall to Travis Kelce (TE1/28th OVR).
De’Von Achane RB - Miami Dolphins
De’Von Achane continues to rise well into RB1 territory as he gains two positional spots from last week’s berth into the tier, settling as the RB10 after a stellar Week 4 outing despite the Dolphins' offensive woes against the Bills.
Brock Purdy QB - San Francisco 49ers
It appears as if everyone, save for Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers, were late to the Brock Purdy party as 2022’s “Mr. Irrelevant” continues to produce top-12 quarterback numbers with incredible success in the win column. The Superflex Dynasty market has finally adjusted, placing the second-year quarterback into the QB1 tier.
Romeo Doubs WR - Green Bay Packers
Romeo Doubs has been the best wideout on the field for the Packers this season, finding an immediate connection with Jordan Love as the team’s top target. The return of Christian Watson in Week 4 did little to stop Doubs’ justifiable rise up the Dynasty ranks as the latter wideout had a career game despite the presence of another target hog.
Notable Market Fallers
Bryce Young QB - Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young has fallen victim to a similar cause and effect to the market evaluation above. Managers are growing increasingly impatient with Young’s development as they watch C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson cement themselves as cornerstone assets.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR - Seattle Seahawks.
Dynasty managers are still bullish on the Seahawks first-round wideout but watching his fellow draft mates post sensational numbers across the league has caused a massive value adjustment for Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The historic start of Puka Nacua, the unquestioned role of Zay Flowers, and the big-play flashes from Jordan Addison, all of these factors have had a cause and effect on Smith-Njigba’s Dynasty value. The promising wideout still sits within the top 20 positional assets at WR19/46th overall but is quickly falling out of favor with the market as he fails to produce.
Jahan Dotson WR - Washington Commanders
Jahan Dotson was an offseason dynasty darling after a stellar rookie season of development was hindered by nagging injuries in 2022. Dotson has since underwhelmed and disappointed all those invested, falling in line with his poor performances as the WR31 in consensus market rankings.
Drake London WR/Kyle Pitts TE - Atlanta Falcons
A continuation from previous editions of this series; Managers are growing increasingly impatient with the Falcons’ archaic run-first offense that refuses to use their two top-10 generational receiving talents. Both Kyle Pitts and Drake London are handcuffed to a system that consciously ignores the utility and talent of their best players. The range of outcomes for each asset is sky high with each pass-catcher having a top-5 positional ceiling. Unfortunately, a change of scenery may be the only way for Pitts and London to meet the said ceiling.
Saquon Barkley RB - New York Giants
Saquon Barkley’s long list of unfortunate injuries has left managers in another tough spot to begin the 2023 season. Barkley was sidelined during Week 3 and Week 4 with an ankle injury, causing managers to take a long look toward the veteran running back’s future production and overall value as a Dynasty asset. The outcome of those future projections was a significant decrease in value for the Giants star rusher.
Dynasty Waiver Adds
Demario Douglas WR - New England Patriots
Changes are coming for the Patriots. Either that or they are willing to comply with complete incompetence. Bill Belichick took it upon himself to bench starting quarterback Mac Jones in Week 4, citing the team’s poor performance. Demario Douglas is a long-shot stash at the wideout position for a team that is in desperate need of a spark.
Jonnu Smith TE - Atlanta Falcons
As unfortunate as it is for managers of Kyle Pitts, Jonnu Smith is the TE1 on the Falcons' offense, sporting a higher target share, route percentage, and snap share than his younger teammate. Smith remains rostered in just 18.7% of Dynasty leagues.
Cole Turner TE - Washington Commanders
Cole Turner led the Commanders in targets in Week 3, causing a slight increase in his roster percentages across all leagues. A swift return from veteran Logan Thomas in Week 4 decreased those percentages once again. Turner is now available in over 70.0% of all Dynasty leagues and could quickly supplant his veteran counterpart as the top tight end on the offense.
Braxton Berrios WR - Miami Dolphins
At this point, every member of the Dolphins offense should be rostered for scoring depth.
Dynasty Roster Cuts
Tony Jones RB - New Orleans Saints
Tony Jones was a hot name on the waiver wires for one week as the Saints running back depth was wiped out amidst injuries and suspensions. The return of Alvin Kamara, and Kendre Miller and the eventual presence of Jamaal Williams leave Jones as the odd man out in a crowded backfield. It is unlikely that Jones ever find utility on an NFL roster.
Rashaad Penny RB - Philadelphia Eagles
I understand the pipe dream of holding onto Rashaad Penny but at this point in his career, he is likely nothing more than a floating depth piece on contending rosters. Over 75.0% of managers are still invested in Penny however, a number that is far too high for a player with zero value.
Buy Low
Garrett Wilson WR - New York Jets
Garret Wilson’s 2023 outlook was understandably shattered once Zach Wilson took over under center for the injured Aaron Rodgers. Wilson’s talent and upside are undeniable with a league-average quarterback calling the shots. The Dynasty market has cooled off on the second-year wideout allowing a savvy buy-low point for managers.
Kyle Pitts TE - Atlanta Falcons
Kyle Pitts has all of the tools and potential to post the most influential receiving season for a player with tight end designation in the history of professional football. He is a generational athlete, showcasing incredible route-running coupled with mean intentions of elusiveness and power after the catch. Unfortunately, Arthur Smith thinks Pitts is a poor blocker and refuses to change his coaching philosophy to accommodate the highest-drafted tight end in NFL history. Keep buying. Whatever the cost. Whatever the discount. Keep buying. The levy will eventually break and Pitts will be an unobtainable Dynasty asset once again.
Sell High
Kyren Williams RB - Los Angeles Rams
Kyren Williams has had an unsuspecting yet terrific start to his 2023 campaign. Williams has supplemented his middling counting stats this year with six total touchdowns (5 Rushing, 1 Receiving), including three multi-touchdown games. Williams is on pace for a record-setting 25.5 touchdowns this season, a mark in which he would also have the fewest amount of yards of any player with more than 20 touchdowns in a single season when accounting for his current per-game averages. All signs point towards substantial regression for Williams as his unsustainable touchdown pace will surely falter, especially with the inevitable return of star wide receiver Cooper Kupp, offering fewer red zone opportunities for the running back.
David Montgomery RB - Detroit Lions
David Montgomery returned as a last-minute game-time decision in Week 4, rushing for over 100 yards and three touchdowns as managers bemoaned the lack of touches for rookie first-round running back Jahmyr Gibbs. Montgomery has been a nagging thorn in the side of Gibbs managers as the Lions front office continues to favor the veteran plodder. Gibbs does, however, rank 7th in combined carry/target percentage, signaling a continued increase in opportunity for the rookie rusher and a decrease in utility from Montgomery.
De'Von Achane RB - Miami Dolphins
This is by no means an evaluation of the player himself, moreover an acknowledgment of De'Von Achane’s insatiable rising value to the RB1 tier in Dynasty. Achane is more than capable of producing positive outings for his managers but valuing an undersized committee back who has yet to completely displace the 31-year-old starter on the roster is a slippery slope. Trading away Achane at peak value may be a tough pill to swallow but his return cost currently sits in a tier adjacent with several top-tier assets. If you cannot get a sensational return on investment from your league market, simply hold the Olympic-level speedster and reap the rewards of his rookie production.
Jordan Love QB - Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love should be viewed as a high-end QB2 rather than a bonafide QB1 asset like he currently is. Love’s career range of outcomes falls in a tier shared with players like Kirk Cousins and Derek Carr as opposed to high-ceiling assets like Trevor Lawrence and Tua Tagovailoa. I would look to pivot down a tier from Love’s rising value while adding significant capital in return, effectively ensuring an increased production ceiling plus additional depth.
Weekly Market Evaluation
Two of the three first-round quarterbacks in 2023 have cemented themselves as top-12 assets and cornerstone players for rebuilding and competing rosters alike. C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richards have shown enough production to insulate their current dynasty value well beyond any potential regression in development from the franchise quarterbacks. The market is establishing new rookies as top-tier producers while heavily discounting some early-season underperformers despite the small sample size.
Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
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By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.