The Broto Heat Wave brings you daily previews of every team’s fantasy football prospects in 2023. 32 teams in 32 days. Today we are recapping the episodes from the NFC North, bringing you quick-hitting bullets that summarize everything you need to know about the players and coaches in this division.
DETROIT LIONS
Offensive Outlook
Head coach Dan Campbell and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson both enter year three for the Lions.
Campbell brings 25 years of NFL experience to the table (14 as a coach/11 as a tight end).
In 2022, Campbell's Lions overcame a 1-6 start to finish 8-2 in the final 10 games of the season. Detroit finished with a 9-8 record overall, capped off by a 20-16 win at Green Bay on Sunday Night Football to eliminate the Packers from playoff contention.
Under Campbell's leadership in 2022 four Lions players were named to the Pro Bowl – QB Jared Goff, C Frank Ragnow, T Penei Sewell, and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Johnson was promoted to offensive coordinator in 2022 after spending three seasons with the Lions in multiple roles on the coaching staff.
He came to Detroit in 2019, as an offensive quality control coach, and was heavily involved in the passing game during Lions Head Coach Dan Campbell's first season in Detroit.
Johnson has helped to establish a new culture for the Lions offensively.
The Lions ranked in the top 5 in several League categories in 2022, including total net yards (3rd, 6,460), total touchdowns scored (4th, 54), fewest turnovers (1st, 15), total points scored (5th, 453) and total games with 30 or more points on offense (T-1st, 8).
The Lions finished the 2022 season with a 9-8 Record (2nd in NFC North), ranking 5th in Points Per Game (26.6), 20th in Pass Percentage (55.1%), and 16th in Run Percentage (44.9%).
Notable Offensive Additions: RB David Montgomery, Rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Rookie TE Sam LaPorta, Rookie QB Hendon Hooker, Rookie RB Mohamid Ibrahim
Notable Offensive Subtractions: RB D’Andre Swift, RB Jamaal Williams, WR D.J. Chark, TE T.J. Hockenson.
Quarterback
Jared Goff has gone full circle, becoming a criminally underrated quarterback partly due to his inability to reach his overrated expectations with the Rams.
Goff had limited weapons at his disposal in 2022, relying heavily on Amon-Ra St.Brown throughout the season. Still, the Lions quarterback finished 8th in Completions, 8th in True Throw Value, 6th in Passing Yards, 9th in Yards Per Game, 8th in Yards Per Attempt, 10th in Deep Ball Completion Percentage, 2nd in QB Big Plays, and 5th in Passing Touchdowns.
Goff may not hold much standalone value as a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 but he is more than capable of producing multiple elite fantasy weapons as the Lions quarterback.
Running Back
Jahmyr Gibbs should be valued as a top-12 running back in redraft leagues this season but is currently being selected as the RB15/39th Overall.
Gibbs possesses an otherworldly collegiate career target share of 13.1%, generating a 118.2 QBRating when targeted with 103 career receptions for 1212 yards and 8 REC TD on an 84.0% catch rating with 1.6 Yards Per Route run while running 10.8% of those routes from the slot and 15.1% of his routes out wide as a receiver, leading all eligible running backs in both categories.
Gibbs forced 104 missed tackles across three seasons in the ACC/SEC, boasting a 115.7 elusive rusher rating via PFF.
The former Alabama/Georgia Tech star created 1292 yards after contact with 3.6 yards after contact on rush attempts and 4.17 yards after contact per touch, showcasing extreme upside as a pure rusher alone while simultaneously owning a transcendent receiving profile.
Only three running backs in NFL history have been selected in the top 20 that own multiple collegiate seasons with a receiving market share above 10.0%. Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Reggie Bush. Gibbs has more than double the collegiate career receiving market share of all three players listed above at 21.7%. Furthermore, all three of the players mentioned above had at least a 20.0% target share and a 40.0% rushing share in their rookie season.
Being selected 12th overall by the Lions places Gibbs into a bucket of former first-round running backs that all received monstrous opportunity shares during their inaugural NFL season. Franchises simply do not spend up on a player of Gibbs caliber to not utilize their utility immediately and often.
Montgomery has been laughably inefficient over the past two seasons but has barely hovered above the fantasy relevance line due to his incredible volume shares and unquestioned role as the Bears lead back even after the emergence of Khalil Herbert.
Ranked 52nd in PPO and 52nd in PPOxTD, providing an example as to just how touchdown and volume-dependent Montgomery was.
That RB1 opportunity share is undeniably in question with a change of scenery for Montgomery.
The good news is that the Lions ran an incredibly effective two RB system with Jamaal Williams rushing for a career-high and franchise-record 17 touchdowns while Swift had great per-touch efficiency stats as the change-of-pace back.
Gibbs and Montgomery are an upgraded version of that exact attack we saw in 2022. Montgomery could have a serviceable season as the Lions' primary goal line back and early down bruiser.
Fortunately, Montgomery’s presence does little to deter the ceiling of Gibbs as their roles are succinctly different.
Wide Receiver
Amon-Ra St. Brown continued his late-season rookie ascent well into his second year, finishing as the WR10 in PPR PPG with 16.7.
St. Brown set the NFL record for consecutive games with eight or more targets, dating back to his 2021 breakout.
He finished the season averaging 28.1% of the team’s targets (WR11) with 146 targets, 106 receptions, 1161 receiving yards and six touchdowns.
The Lions' depth chart remains fairly shallow with Jameson Williams facing a six-game suspension.
Williams will not return until Week 7 and is largely unproven as he played in only six games as a rookie, earning a hilariously menial nine targets with one reception for 41 yards and a touchdown.
By the time Williams returns, St. Brown will have long established himself as the true alpha once again, leaving the former Alabama and Ohio State recruit to run empty wind sprints on the outside as a deep threat decoy.
Tight End
Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta projects to be the starter for the Lions this season, but has an uphill battle to fantasy relevance as history has told us time and time again.
Drafting rookie tight ends in redraft leagues rarely yields positive success.
For perspective, Dallas Goedert finished as the TE12 Overall in 2022, compiling 141.0 PPR Points. Since 2010, only five rookie tight ends have surpassed 141.0 PPR points.
No rookie tight end in NFL history would have finished as a top-5 positional asset last season despite a historically down year for tight end scoring in 2022.
Dynasty Sleepers and Stashes
The Lions have minimal commitment to Jared Goff beyond the 2024 season and will likely not finish low enough in the standings to ensure a franchise quarterback in the draft.
Hendon Hooker will “red-shirt" his entire rookie season while recovering from an ACL tear. Hooker will likely enter his 26th year on earth before he ever sees an NFL snap.
With that said, there is always a viable path to value swings for starting quarterbacks in superflex leagues.
If the Lions move on from Goff without the draft capital to replace him, Hooker could find himself as a bridge-gap starter.
Mohamid Ibrahim will likely need an injury to one of the Lions' lead-backs, if not both, for him to find any relevance as a rookie.
Montgomery has dealt with several lower body issues in the past two seasons and Gibbs is not built for the role of the goal line hammer whereas the 5’8”/215 lbs Ibrahim is built like a brick house with mean intentions and an aggressive north-south running style.
Full Episode
GREEN BAY PACKERS
Offensive Outlook
Matt Lafleur enters year five as the Packers' head coach.
Lafleur’s 47 career wins are the second most in NFL history by a head coach in his first four seasons in the league, trailing only George Seifert (52).
Green Bay's 47-19 (.712) mark since Lafleur was named head coach is the third-best regular-season record in the NFL and the best in the NFC.
In his first three seasons leading the Packers (2019-21), guided Green Bay to a trio of 13-win seasons, three NFC North crowns and two appearances in the NFC Championship Game.
Owns the NFL coaching record for the longest streak in NFL history without back-to-back losses.
The first year without Aaron Rodgers. The first year with new offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich.
Stenavich was officially promoted to offensive coordinator in 2023 after joining the Packers in 2019 as an offensive line coach.
Since joining Green Bay's staff in 2019, has helped the Packers rank No. 1 in the NFL over that span in fewest giveaways (59), No. 2 in time of possession (32:00), tied for No. 3 in sacks allowed (122) and No. 7 in scoring (25.8 ppg) although it is easy to claim a successful resume when you have one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game on your roster.
In 2022 the Packers finished with an 8-9 Record (3rd in NFC North), ranking 14th in Points Per Game (21.8), 19th in Pass Percentage (55.3%) and 17th in Run Percentage (44.7%).
Notable Offensive Additions: Rookie WR Jayden Reed, Rookie WR Dontayvion Wicks, Rookie WR Grant DuBose, Rookie TE Luke Musgrave, Rookie TE Tucker Kraft.
Offense Subtractions:
Notable Offensive Subtractions: QB Aaron Rodgers, TE Robert Tonyan, WR Allen Lazard.
Quarterback
Jordan Love is an unknown wildcard with a wide array of outcomes in his projections.
Formerly a first-round quarterback, selected as the heir apparent to Aaron Rodgers, Love could shatter his current expectations and redraft ADP by simply playing at a league-average level.
Conversely, there is no historical evidence in Love’s prospect profile, or small-sample NFL analytics that suggests he is anything more than a replacement-level quarterback.
Love is being thrown to the wolves in an offense that Rodgers failed to have success in with inexperienced surrounding weapons and a faltering offensive line.
Love will be delivering his passes to two second-year wideouts, two rookie wideouts, and two rookie tight ends as his top pass-catchers.
The Packers' new franchise quarterback has minimal rushing upside to bolster average passing production.
Love is most likely a low-end QB2 in his first full season as a starter.
Wide Receiver
Christian Watson played 14 games as a rookie, catching 41 of 65 targets for 611 yards while averaging an incredible 14.9 yards per reception with an aDOT of 13.8 (WR12).
Watson caught seven touchdowns in 2022, receiving 14 Red Zone targets which ranked top 20 amongst wide receivers despite missing three games. He also added two rushing touchdowns.
The Packers leading wideout averaged 2.40 Yards Per Route Run (WR12), averaging 9.4 yards per target (WR15).
Watson also ranked first overall in fantasy points per target, averaging 2.52 fantasy points per opportunity with 0.64 fantasy points per route, ranked 3rd.
He finished 2nd in fantasy points per target against man coverage, proving to be a dominant route-winner.
All in all, Watson ended his rookie season as the WR32 in PPG, averaging 11.7 PPR points per contest.
He had 4 consecutive top-10 wide receiver finishes from Week 10 through Week 13 with scoring totals of 32.7 (WR3), 21.1 (WR8), 21.0 (WR10), and 24.4 (WR8) with all seven of his rookie touchdowns coming in that span.
An undeniable regression of target value moving from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love could ultimately hurt Watson’s development but he has shown all the positive traits of a true alpha wide receiver with immense upside.
Added target competition also comes in the form of several rookie additions and the continuing development of fellow second-year wideout, Romeo Doubs.
Doubs played 13 games as a rookie, hauling in 42 of 67 targets for 425 yards and three touchdowns.
Doubs recorded one top-10 finish in 2022 with seven games recording five or more targets.
He could maintain some relevance as a short-yardage slot threat as he proved to be a valuable option in that role when healthy as a rookie.
Love does not possess the arm strength of his predecessor and could look to work underneath much more frequently, opening up plenty of opportunity for Doubs to improve on his inaugural season.
Running Back
Aaron Jones has begun regressing as a receiver, limiting his ceiling as he closes out the twilight of his career.
Jones' touchdown ceiling is also in grave danger as the tank that is A.J. Dillon remains on the roster.
Love’s small sample size of pass attempts in the NFL has not been allocated to running backs, suggesting both a lower volume and lower value of targets for the Packers backfield.
Running back targets are highly correlative to offensive scheme and quarterback tendencies, further suggesting a monstrous collapse of utility for Jones as a fantasy asset.
The Packers' running backs have a terrifying risk-to-reward ratio, tempting managers with high-volume potential in a run-first offense led by Jordan Love coupled with the low ceiling of being completely useless on your fantasy teams.
Tight End
Not one, but two rookie tight ends lead the Packers depth chart entering 2023 with Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft set to take the majority of snaps.
Musgrave profiles as one of the best pure-pass catchers and well-rounded rookie tight ends of the 2023 NFL draft class but has no mentors on the team to speed his development and will likely be viewed as low as the sixth option on the offense behind Watson, Doubs, Reed, Jones and Dillon.
Musgrave and Kraft have favorable player comparisons ranging from Vernon Davis to Zach Ertz and Jelani Woods.
Still, no tight end is immune to the perils of a largely unproductive rookie season.
Dynasty Stash
Jayden Reed enters the fold of Packers wideouts after being selected in Round 2 at Pick 19 of the 2023 NFL Draft.
Reed weighs in at 5’11” and 187 lbs, profiling as a high-utility gadget wideout with the ability to take snaps at multiple receiver positions.
Reed is rarely deterred by larger matchups, despite his limited size.
The former Michigan State prospect operates with good superfluous route speed deceleration, allowing for a swift development in his ability to separate against NFL defenders.
Reed also possesses some of the best deep-ball tracking skills of any receiver in the 2023 draft class, exhibiting incredible upside as a long-distance target.
Full Episode
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Offensive Outlook
Kevin O’Connell enters year two as the Vikings' head coach.
In his first season with the Vikings O'Connell led the team to 13 wins, the most by any first-year head coach in franchise history, earning the club's first division title since 2017.
O'Connell had seven players' notch Pro Bowl berths, the most by any first-year head coach in Vikings history.
Minnesota finished 11-0 in one-score games during the regular season after going 5-8 in those same situations in 2021.
The team also had an NFL-record-tying 10 comeback wins this season, including overcoming a 33-point halftime deficit in Week 15 against the Colts, the greatest comeback in NFL history.
Wes Phillips enters his 17th season as an NFL Coach, returning for his with the Vikings as offensive coordinator.
In 2022, Phillips coached an offense that finished eighth in the NFL in points scored (24.9 ppg) and second in passing yards (283.4 YPG).
Phillips’ high-powered pass-first offense helped QB Kirk Cousins set team records for passing attempts (643) and passing first downs (230), and also totaled the second-most completions (424) and passing yards (4,547) in franchise history.
Phillips' offense also assisted in Justin Jefferson's record-breaking campaign, where he set the Vikings' new single-season record for receiving yards (1,809) and receptions (128), passing Hall of Fame WRs Cris Carter (122 in 1994 and 1995) and Randy Moss (1,632 in 2003).
QB Kirk Cousins, RB Dalvin Cook, WR Justin Jefferson and TE T.J. Hockenson were named to the Pro Bowl under O’Connell and Phillips.
The Vikings finished 2022 with a 13-4 Record (1st in NFC North), ranked 8th in Points Per Game (24.9), 3rd in Pass Percentage (62.5%) with the 3rd lowest Run Percentage (37.5%).
Notable Offensive Additions: Rookie WR Jordan Addison
Notable Offensive Subtractions: RB Dalvin Cook, WR Adam Thielen, TE Irv Smith.
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins has been a starter for eight consecutive seasons in the NFL. He has only one statistical finish outside of the top 12 quarterbacks overall in those eight seasons and only one finish outside of the top 12 QBs in PPG during those eight seasons.
He set career and franchise highs in pass attempts, passing yards and passing touchdowns last season.
The Vikings enter 2023 after a stellar 2022 season that saw the offense open up under Kevin O’Connell and company, ranking 3rd in Pass Percentage.
Cousins ranked 4th in Pass Attempts, 4th in Pass Completions, 4th in Passing Yards, 5th in Passing Touchdowns, 7th in QB Big Plays, 8th in Yards Per Game, finishing as the QB8 Overall and the QB12 in PPG.
Cousins maintained incredible efficiency and arm strength despite several nagging injuries, ranking 3rd in Deep Ball Completion Percentage and 6th in Red Zone Completion Percentage.
Unfortunately, Cousins fell to QB22 in True Throw Value due to some costly interceptions and miscues while operating in a new offense.
Entering 2023, the Vikings have even more pass-catching weapons for Cousins with Jordan Addison replacing the husk of Adam Thielen and Hockenson available for an entire season including a complete offseason of development within the new offense.
They also have a reduction in talent at running back and on the defensive side of the ball, suggesting that the team could pass even more than their 3rd-ranked rating in 2022.
Running Back
Alexander Mattison is being criminally undervalued in fantasy drafts as a low-end RB2 despite proving to be an elite fantasy asset as the Vikings starting running back in games in which Dalvin Cook was unable to compete.
Over the last two seasons, Mattison has finished as the RB6, RB7, RB8, RB13, RB8, and RB4 in weeks in which Cook is inactive.
The Vikings' depth chart also remains incredibly weak with change-of-pace options like Ty Chandler, Kene Ngwanu and DeWayne McBride rounding out the running back room.
The confidence the organization has in Mattison cannot go unspoken as the team actively avoided adding meaningful depth after willingly cutting their long-time franchise cornerstone and four-time Pro Bowl running back.
Wide Receiver
Justin Jefferson is on a historic pace as potentially the greatest wide receiver to ever play the game and should be selected as the first player off the board in fantasy drafts regardless of format.
Adam Thielen exits the team leaving behind 621 (WR2) total routes run.
Jordan Addison is expected to fill Thielen’s role, with his only competition for the number two spot being KJ Osborn.
Selected in the first round with several accolades and incredible collegiate production on his resume, Addison could be in line for a monstrous season if his route participation percentages reach similar heights to Theilen in 2022.
Since Kirk Cousins joined the Vikings, the number two wideout has had at least 100 targets and 70 receptions in every season.
Addison averaged 2.78 yards per route run in 2022, ranking 11th amongst the 136 draft-eligible wide receivers that saw at least 50 targets while generating a 7th-ranked QB Rating when targeted.
Addison has lined up in every possible position as a wideout, posting over 1200 yards as a slot receiver and over 1200 yards out wide during his collegiate career.
Osborn earned 90 targets (WR45) in 2022 and enters the 2023 season as the fourth receiving option on the offense.
Tight End
Hockenson finished as the TE4 in PPG last season, averaging 12.7 with 12 top 12 finishes including five finishes within the top five and two TE1 overall performances.
He posted two TE1 overall finishes total, one with the Lions and one with the Vikings.
Hockenson accumulated eight receptions for 179 yards and two touchdowns in his TE1 performance for the Lions and 13 receptions for 109 yards and two touchdowns in his TE1 performance for the Vikings.
Ironically, Hockenson posted two games with over 33.0 PPR points and still managed only 12.7 PPG as the TE4 in PPG.
The gap between Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews and every other active tight end is truly monumental.
Hockenson is certainly at the top of that gapped tier between the top of the top and everyone else.
Hockenson is still only 26, entering his prime as an NFL tight end and is coming off his best analytic season to date.
The former Lions tight end turned Viking star earned 129 targets, levying 86 receptions for 914 yards and six touchdowns with a 20.5% Target Share, 23.8% Target Rate, 19 Red Zone Targets, 10 Deep Targets, 407 Yards After Catch, 1.40 Yards Per Team Pass Attempt, and a true target value of 3.97 ranked 2nd behind only Travis Kelce.
With Addison in the mix to line up both inside and out, Hockenson could very well see increased work out of the slot with an even higher target share as he dominates over the middle while Jefferson commands double teams on the outside.
Dynasty Sleepers and Stashes
The entire Vikings' depth chart at running back is viable for dynasty stashes in the unfortunate circumstance that Mattison faces injury.
7th Round rookies rarely have a direct path to dynasty relevance and value swings. However, DeWayne McBride is a name to keep an eye on as the season unfolds.
McBride is undoubtedly behind Mattison on a pass-happy offense but he has little to no competition in front of him for the secondary role and potential starting role should the career backup turned starter get banged up.
Kene Ngwanu and Ty Chandler are competing for roster spots as well, both of whom are also day 3 picks.
Chandler is the most recent selection before McBride and boasts 4.38 speed but had just six touches total his rookie season, all carries, no targets.
Ngwanu was the highest selected of them all, being taken in the 4th round but has just 28 total touches in two years of play and was a part of one of the most gruesome collisions on a kick return in NFL history, costing him his season and a brutal recovery from knee surgery.
McBride is from a small program at UAB but boasted ridiculous production, rushing for 3,523 yards and 36 touchdowns averaging 7.3 YPC in 31 games across his collegiate career.
Chandler may have the most utility of all three due to his sensational speed and current position on the depth chart but this race is wide open for the number two spot in what is expected to be an excellent offense in 2023.
Full Episode
CHICAGO BEARS
Offensive Outlook
Matt Eberfuls enters year two as the Bears' head coach
Eberflus comes to Chicago with 30 years of coaching experience, including 13 in the NFL but showed his inexperience at times as a rookie head coach for the Bears last season.
Luke Getsy enters his second season with the Bears in 2023, reprising his role as offensive coordinator.
Getsy has 16 years of coaching experience, including eight in the National Football League, all coming within the NFC North: Green Bay Packers (2014-17, 2019-21) - Bears (2022-present).
In 2022, Getsy utilized the personnel at hand and helped the Bears to a franchise record in team rushing, totaling 3,014 yards on the ground while also finishing with the top rushing mark in the entire league.
The last time the Bears led the NFL in rushing yards was in 1986 when they totaled 2,700 yards on the season.
In 2022 the Bears finished with a 3-14 Record (4th in NFC North), ranking 23rd in Points Per Game (19.2) with a 1st Ranked Rush Percentage (59.7%) and dead last Pass Percentage (40.3%) ranked 32nd.
Notable Offensive Additions: WR D.J. Moore, RB D’Onta Foreman, TE Robert Tonyan, QB P.J. Walker, Rookie WR Tyler Scott, Rookie RB Roschon Johnson.
Notable Offensive Subtractions: RB David Montgomery.
Quarterback
Justin Fields simultaneously set the single-game rushing yards record for a quarterback while also finishing with the second-highest single-season rushing total for a quarterback, finishing just 64 yards behind Lamar Jackson’s record.
Even with historic rushing production, Fields topped out as the QB5 in PPG and QB7 overall, finishing with 2242 passing yards, 17 passing touchdowns, 1143 rushing yards, and eight rushing touchdowns.
We expect Fields to maintain his elite rushing prowess throughout the 2023 season but he will need to quickly develop as a passer if managers hope for the Bears quarterback to bridge the gap into QB1 overall territory.
Fields has improved pass-catching weapons with an improved offensive line entering his third season, creating a hopeful avenue for the dual-threat quarterback to improve as a passer.
If Fields can mount a third-year leap as a pure-passer, his upside as QB1 overall is undeniable but the likelihood of that occurring based on his current body of work is unlikely.
Wide Receiver
D.J. Moore enters the 2023 season with his lowest ADP in recent memory with an evaluation of WR23 in redraft leagues.
Although his cost is palpable, the tempered expectations of the former Panthers wideout are justifiable.
Moore is entering his 6th season in the NFL, his first with the Bears on what is expected to be an extremely low-volume passing offense.
Moore has never finished higher than WR14 in PPG and has not finished higher than WR23 in the last three seasons, posting PPG totals of 11.7 (WR33), 14.0 (WR23), and 14.1 (WR28) during that span.
He finally broke his 4 touchdown ceiling stigma last season, collecting seven total touchdowns.
Unfortunately, that also led to Moore finishing with his lowest PPG total since his rookie season.
Moore ended the 2022 season with 63 receptions on 118 targets for 888 yards and seven touchdowns, ending his streak of consecutive 1000-yard receiving seasons at three.
Managers are finally appearing wise to Moore’s supposedly high but non-existent and slightly mediocre ceiling of elite production.
With that said, Moore’s ADP is much more palatable than years past, allowing managers to secure two elite WR assets if they so choose while leaving Moore as an above-replacement flex piece rather than a replacement-level WR2.
Darnell Mooney’s ADP is the lowest of any relevant member of the Bears offense and for good reason.
Mooney’s second-year “breakout” culminated in a seasonal finish of WR27 in PPG (12.9), needing 140 targets to achieve just 81 receptions for 1055 yards and four receptions.
Entering his third year in the NFL with major target competition on a low-volume passing attack does not bode well for the continued development of the 5th round wideout.
Chase Claypool appears to be an irrelevant fantasy asset who has never met the suggested potential of his one-game breakout in his rookie year.
Running Back
Khalil Herbert was wildly efficient with the ball in his hands last season, averaging 5.7 YPC (5th) while scoring four rushing touchdowns despite being ranked 41st in Red Zone Opportunities.
Herbert ranked 18th in PPOxTD and 28th in Yards Per Game despite not being listed as one of the NFL’s 32 starting running backs.
Herbert was a complete non-factor in the passing game, however, garnering just nine receptions on 12 targets in 2022.
A smaller back, Herbert may never see a true three-down workload as the leading rusher but he is undeniably the most talented running back on the Bears offense.
D’Onta Foreman put up respectable numbers as a pure rusher for the Panthers following the departure of Christian McCaffrey and is expected to receive a sizeable workload as a rusher while spelling Herbert this season.
Rookie running back Roschon Johnson profiles as the best short-yardage and goal-line back on the team. Johnson is a stout 6’0” and 225 lbs and could easily carve out a valuable role for himself as a rookie.
Unfortunately, all three of these players will likely vulture each other’s touches and fantasy points.
Herbert is the best stand-alone asset at RB36 due to his propensity for big plays and track record of RB1 performances as a starter.
Tight End
Cole Kmet finished as the TE11 Overall in 2022 but managed just 8.7 PPG (TE16).
Kmet was arguably the most talented and reliable pass-catcher on the Bears' offense last season, a position that will undoubtedly be filled by wide receiver D.J. Moore this year.
The year prior, in 2021, Kmet received 93 targets and finished with a mere 7.1 PPR PPG. His target totals will likely never reach those heights again, leaving Kmet as a low-ceiling/low-floor with an ADP of TE15.
Dynasty Sleepers and Stashes
The University of Cincinnati receivers keep sneaking their way into NFL Drafts and are quietly making an immediate impact at the NFL level, ala Alec Pierce in 2022.
Tyler Scott is 5 '11” and 180 lbs, drafted with the second-to-last pick of the 4th round in the 2023 NFL Draft.
He started eight games as a sophomore during the Bearcats’ run to the College Football Playoff catching 30 passes for 520 yards and five receiving touchdowns.
Scott was a second-team All-American Athletic Conference selection in 2022, leading the Bearcats with 54 receptions, 899 receiving yards (16.6 YPR) and nine scores in 11 starts.
He has elite athleticism as a Junior Olympic sprinter with electric top-end speed, exhibiting said speed with ten of 14 career touchdowns being 30 yards or more.
Scott is also a former high school running back with excellent run-after-catch talent and offers dynamic versatility due to his skill set.
Full Episode
Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
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By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.