Heat Wave Cheat Sheet: 2023 AFC North Fantasy Football Preview

The Broto Heat Wave brings you daily previews of every team’s fantasy football prospects in 2023. 32 teams in 32 days. Today we are recapping the episodes from the AFC North, bringing you quick-hitting bullets that summarize everything you need to know about the players and coaches in this division.

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Offensive Outlook

  • John Harbaugh enters year 16 as the Ravens' head coach and his 26th year in the NFL.

  • Since Harbaugh's 2008 arrival, the Ravens have posted the NFL's fourth-most total victories (158, including playoffs).

  • Brings in a new offensive coordinator to take over for Greg Roman.

  • Todd Monken will serve as the Ravens OC this season, his first within the organization.

  • Monken was formerly the offensive coordinator for the University of Georgia Bulldogs from 2020-2022, winning two national championships in three seasons

  • Before that Monken was in the big leagues with the Cleveland Browns and Tampa Bay Buccaneers as an Offensive Assistant and Wide Receiver coach

  • Implements a highly-effective pro-style offense, not dissimilar to Kyle Shanahan’s wherein the scheme is catered to the players creating yards after the catch.

  • The Ravens finished with a 10-7 Record in 2022, ranking 19th in Points Per Game (20.6) with the 4th Highest Rush Percentage (51.9%) and the 4th Lowest Pass Percentage (48.1%).

  • Notable Offensive Additions: WR Odell Beckham Jr., Rookie WR Zay Flowers, Rookie RB Keaton Mitchell

  • Notable Offensive Subtractions: OG Ben Powers.

Quarterback

  • Managers should not be worried about Lamar Jackson’s 2023 production under a new offensive coordinator.

  • Monken’s high-volume Spread offense may remove the cheaply designed quarterback runs from Roman’s old philosophy but opens up infinitely more avenues for Jackson to succeed both as a rusher and passer.

  • Elite quarterbacks with number one overall in their positional range of outcomes should not be this cheap. 

  • After being named the full-time starter following his rookie season, Jackson has posted PPG finishes of QB1, QB8, QB7, and QB6 in the past four seasons.

  • Continuously overlooked is the fact that Jackson is consistently in the top-12 ranked quarterbacks in True Throw Value despite being labeled a traditionally “poor” passer.

  • For perspective, Lamar ranks in the top 5 quarterbacks in NFL history in total games with a perfect passer rating and is the only player on the list who is still active in the NFL.

  • An unfortunate injury derailed what started as a stunning season for Jackson as the Ravens’ quarterback averaged 20.3 PPG last season before being placed on IR.

  • Jackson recorded eight QB1 performances in 12 weeks including two QB1 Overall performances.

  • Jackson also ranked third in Fantasy Points Per Dropback, exemplifying incredible scoring numbers when the offense was in passing formations.

  • Monken has also averaged 33.7 Pass attempts per game in his offenses at Georgia.

  • Jackson is primed to return to his league-breaking ways after the addition of a pass-focused coordinator, a top-15 ranked offensive line, and a much improved wide receiver corps that consists of a healthy Rashod Bateman, Odell Beckham Jr., rookie first-round wideout Zay Flowers and superstar tight end-receiver hybrid Mark Andrews.

Wide Receiver

  • Although the Ravens' new-look offense should open up the field for more passing, the label of WR1 within the locker room has yet to be determined.

  • Jackson has been quoted saying that the number one option in the receiver room is “Shoddy B, no doubt”, referring to the promising third-year wideout Rashod Bateman.

  • Odell Beckham Jr. signed a lucrative contract with the team, sending rippling effects throughout the free agency market. His last healthy season with the Rams was encouraging but the veteran wideout has not played a snap since the knee injury suffered in the Super Bowl.

  • Zay Flowers is the highest-drafted wide receiver the Ravens have selected in the Lamar Jackson era but the four-year senior enters the NFL from a relatively small program at Boston College with only one season of elite production under his belt.

  • Bateman has been plagued with injuries throughout his two-year NFL career.

  • In 2022, Bateman did not play more than 65.0% of the snaps in any game, even when he was healthy enough to suit up.

  • Despite the injury concerns, Bateman showed several signs of his alpha-receiver status, ranking first in the league in Yards Per Reception and 14th in aDOT while securing 5/15 receptions for more than 25 yards.

  • Flowers was incredibly productive during his final season, accounting for 57.1% of Boston College’s receiving touchdowns and 54.0% of the total offensive touchdowns for his alma mater during his senior campaign.

  • Beckham Jr. touched greatness to begin his NFL career but has not produced a top-30 season in WR PPG since 2018

  • All three receivers come with notable risk but can be drafted at a major discount this season. Bateman (WR45), Flowers (WR50) and Odell Beckham Jr (WR61) can all provide serviceable fantasy numbers for your roster at cost.

Tight End

  • Todd Monken is solely responsible for designing the offense that led to the greatest true freshman tight end breakout in the history of college football while developing Georgia’s Brock Bowers.

  • Monken with a truly generational receiving tight end like Mark Andrews is one of the most scintillating storylines when projecting the veteran’s 2023 season.

  • Andrews recorded 73 Receptions for 847 yards and five touchdowns, averaging 11.6 YPR with a league-leading target share of 29.0% in 2022.

  • The Ravens' star tight end earned 113 targets, ranking first in air yards and fifth in total deep targets.

  • Andrews isn’t just the Ravens' number-one tight end. He’s their Alpha wide receiver stuck in a tight end designation.

  • His True Target Value took a notable hit without Lamar under center but he remained locked in as a top-3 option throughout the season.

  • Fitting Andrews into Monken’s system could lead 2021’s TE1 overall in PPG back to the top of the mountain, dethroning Travis Kelce once again.

Running Back

  • J.K. Dobbins is currently being drafted as the RB18 in 2022, showcasing a mixed bag of crippling concern and honorable hope from fantasy managers.

  • Dobbins was incredibly efficient as a rookie, averaging a league-high 6.0 Yard Per Carry, priming the youngster for a sensational sophomore campaign in 2021.

  • A devastating preseason knee injury and multiple ensuing surgeries kept Dobbins from competing in the 2021 season and greatly hindered his durability and production in 2022.

  • Dobbins missed Week 7 through Week 13 of 2022 due to complications with his surgically repaired knee.

  • When the Ravens running back was healthy, he had a limited role on offense, never surpassing more than 15 carries in a game and often appearing to be hindered by a hitch in his running stride.

  • Nonetheless, Dobbins remained efficient in the Ravens' run-friendly offense, averaging 5.7 Yards Per Carry.

  • The Ravens lead running back also made a thunderous return in Week 14 of 2022, rushing for 120 yards on 15 carries with a follow-up performance in Week 15 where he managed 128 yards and one touchdown on just 13 rush attempts.

  • Betting on Dobbins is entirely reliant on the player’s health. His ADP mitigates some of the inherent risk but if Dobbins maintains a snap share above 60.0% with 15-18 carries a game he will undoubtedly return RB18 value.

  • Gus Edwards is worth mentioning as a late-round flier/stash as he has always had success within the Ravens' offense and would immediately see an RB1 workload should Dobbins face further injuries.

Dynasty Sleepers and Stashes

  • Isaiah Likely owns the highest collegiate Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt (RYPTA) of any tight end drafted since 2005 and a top-10 RYPTA all-time for college tight ends.

  • During the two games in which Mark Andrews missed, Likely finished as the TE2 with 19.2 PPR Points and the TE9 with a respectable 9.8 PPR points.

  • The former 4th-round pick out of Coastal Carolina is one of the best receiving tight ends in his class and would easily be valued as a top-12 Dynasty tight end if he had been drafted elsewhere.

  • The path to relevance requires an injury to Andrews or a potential trade but Likely’s talent as a fantasy-relevant tight end in a barren position is undeniable in dynasty formats.

Full Episode

CINCINNATI BENGALS

Offensive Outlook

  • Zac Taylor enters year five as the Bengals' head coach.

  • Finished the 2022 campaign leading the team to a second consecutive AFC North Division title and a repeat appearance in the AFC Championship.

  • Through four seasons in Cincinnati, Taylor holds marks of 28-36-1 in the regular season and 5-2 in the postseason. 

  • Under Taylor's leadership in 2022, the Bengals tied a team record for regular-season wins (12) and consecutive wins (eight) to earn the No. 3 seed in the AFC Playoffs, after beginning the year with a 4-4 record.

  • In defeating Baltimore in the Wild Card Playoff and Buffalo in the Divisional Playoff, Taylor became one of just 13 head coaches in NFL history who have won five of their first six career postseason games. 

  • Brian Callahan enters Year 5 as the Bengals' offensive coordinator, marking his 14th year in the NFL

  • He once again oversaw a dynamic offense that ranked in the top 10 league-wide in scoring (7th, 25.7 points per game), total yards (8th, 360.5 per game), and passing yards (5th, 265.0). 

  • In Callahan’s offense, Joe Burrow set the single-season Bengals record for completions (414) and passing touchdowns (35).

  • Callahan also helped produce two 1000-yard WRs in Ja'Marr Chase (1046) and Tee Higgins (1029), who each reached the milestone despite missing time due to injuries. 

  • The Bengals finished the 2022 season with a 12-4 Record (1st AFC North) while ranking 7th in Points Per Game (25.7), 27th in Rush Percentage (39.5%), and 6th in Pass Percentage (60.5%)

  • Notable Offensive Additions: TE Irv Smith, OT Orlando Brown, QB Trevor Siemien, Rookie WR Andre Iosivas, Rookie RB Chase Brown, Rookie WR Charlie Jones.

  • Notable Offensive Subtractions: TE Hayden Hurst, RB Samaje Perine.

Quarterback

  • Joe Burrow has defied all odds throughout every juncture of his football career, going from a relatively unknown and dismissed collegiate prospect, to posting one of the greatest seasons in the history of NCAA football in his final year at LSU and finally becoming one of the most talented quarterbacks the NFL has ever seen after being selected first overall by the Bengals and overcoming a career-altering knee injury as a rookie.

  • Burrow has since bounced back to record two consecutive seasons with more than 4500 passing yards and at least 30 touchdowns, recording 33 and 36 respectively.

  • Burrow maintained incredible efficiency in 2022 despite a monstrous increase in overall passing volume.

  • The Bengals franchise quarterback attempted 610 pass attempts in 2022, 90 more than his 2021 total but remained in the top-10 quarterbacks in Yard Per Attempt while posting True Throw Value finishes of QB2 and QB3.

  • Burrow also set career-highs in rushing production last season, taking 76 rushing attempts for 259 yards and five touchdowns.

  • Burrow is an excellent selection this season as your set-it-and-forget-it QB1.

Wide Receiver

  • Ja’Marr Chase followed up a sensational and historic top-5 PPG season as a rookie with yet another league-breaking top-5 PPG season in his second year.

  • Chase is already in historically elite company as one of the best receivers to ever play the game through his first two seasons.

  • Last year the Bengals' star wideout posted 1046 yards with 87 receptions on 134 targets, adding 9 touchdowns despite missing five games.

  • Chase averaged 12.0 yards per reception, ranked 6th in Target Share at 29.3% and 3rd in Red Zone Targets while ranking first in True Target Value and 4th in PPG (20.2)

  • There is still much room for improvement as well as Chase ranked 53rd in Yards Per Target and 36th in Points Per Opportunity. 

  • Room for improvement should not be viewed as a negative as Chase was still able to produce a WR4 PPG season despite his middling efficiency ratings in certain categories.

  • Entering year three, Chase should be selected as the second wide receiver off the board and the 1.02 overall with the upside of finishing as the top-ranked player overall.

  • Tee Higgins had a relatively down season in 2022 compared to his WR12 PPG finish in 2021.

  • Still, Higgins caught 75 balls on 111 targets for 1042 yards and 7 touchdowns, averaging 13.1 PPR PPG as the WR26 in fantasy.

  • His target share regressed from a whopping 23.9% in 2021 to 18.6% in 2022. 

  • A 5.3% decrease in target share was highly unexpected as Higgins crossed several positive analytic thresholds during his second season.

  • We are not big proprietors of narrative-based analysis but most actionable advice applies all available data points.

  • There was a fairly succinct and reasonable narrative that explains Higgins' year three regression. Higgins had three games where he appeared on the injured list leading up to the contest during the 2022 season despite being listed as active for all 17 games. 

  • In those three games in which Higgins was unable to shed the pre-game injury designation, he saw only one target.

  • Decoy games heavily skewed Higgins’ year three analytics, dropping his Yards Per Route Run, Targets Per Route Run, and Target Share to unpredictable lows.

  • There is no denying that Higgins will play a significant role in the Bengals' success and his ADP of WR16 provides excellent value for a wide receiver that has proven to have top-12 positional upside.

  • Tyler Boyd remains a veteran presence with a consistent floor of low-end WR3 production.

  • Boyd’s upside as a fantasy asset is reliant on injuries to the previously mentioned receivers on the roster.

  • The veteran’s production will likely continue to regress as the younger options develop into the superstars they embody.

Running Back

  • ATTENTION: Joe Mixon is officially a favorite target of the Broto Family. 

  • The years of hate and perpetual fading of the inefficient plodder have finally crossed with the apex of draft value as Mixon is currently being selected as the RB15.

  • The Bengals have left the backfield barren of proven talent, leaving the veteran Mixon to share a monstrous workload as the team’s top running back.

  • In 2022, Mixon recorded 52 Red Zone Opportunities (RB4), leading to nine total touchdowns.

  • The veteran running back recorded 60 (RB5) receptions for 441 yards (RB6), setting new-career highs in receiving production.

  • Mixon’s new-found pass-catching prowess also led to an RB2 ranking in True Target Value.

  • Mixon’s opportunity share in both the passing and running game allowed him to mask his usual inefficient self. He finished the 2022 season ranked 53rd in Yards Per Carry (3.9) and 29th in PPOxTD but managed to finish as the RB7 in PPG (16.1).

Tight End

  • The Bengals replaced veteran tight end, Hayden Hurst, with recurring breakout hopeful Irv Smith.

  • Smith is being selected as the TE18 overall in fantasy drafts, proving the hype train keeps rolling, albeit at a slower pace, on the perennial late-round sleeper.

  • Smith has produced four years of mediocrity in his NFL career, maxing out with a single-season career-high of 36 receptions in 2019 and 365 receiving yards in 2020.

  • Smith has a total of 9 touchdowns since being drafted in 2019.

  • The injury-plagued tight end has played only eight games over the last two seasons.

  • Last season for the Bengals, Hayden Hurst put up career-best numbers of 54 receptions for 439 yards and two touchdowns, finishing as the TE19 in PPG.

  • Hurst’s receptions and receiving yards total would both mark career-highs for Smith and would still yield a lower PPG total than his current ADP of TE18.

Dynasty Sleepers and Stashes

  • Honorable mention in this segment to Bengals rookie wide receiver and former Purdue alum Charlie Jones.

  • Jones produced the highest single-season collegiate target share of any player selected in the 2023 draft class and thrives as a smooth separator from the slot.

  • Tyler Boyd has shown regression in his later years and has only one year remaining with the team.

  • Resigning Burrow, Chase, and Higgins leaves little room on the books for free agent signings, giving Jones a legitimate path to earning a role as the starting slot receiver on the Bengals' high-powered offense after 2023.

  • Chase Brown may have the most upside of any rookie on the Bengals' offense should Joe Mixon go down.

  • Brown is undoubtedly the most athletic running back on the team, smashing through the 2023 NFL Combine with a 4.43s 40-yard dash, 1.53s 10-yard split, 40” vertical leap, 10 '7” broad jump and 25 bench press repetitions.

  • Per Brown’s 2023 NFL Draft Profile, he was graded as the third-most athletic running back in the class, behind only Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson.

  • The Bengals do not run a committee when their lead back is hurt, whoever has the hot hand will explode as a fantasy asset and Brown fits the bill as a Dynasty riser.

Full Episode

CLEVELAND BROWNS

Offensive Outlook

  • Kevin Stefanski is in year three as the Browns head coach.

  • During the Browns' 75-year history, the team has surpassed 6,000 scrimmage yards in a single season just five times, including both years under Stefanski.

  • Alex Van Pelt returns for year three as the Browns' offensive coordinator, entering the franchise with Stefanski in 2020.

  • Van Pelt is in his 27th season in the NFL and 18th as an assistant coach following nine seasons as a quarterback (1995-03).

  • Van Pelt operates a run-orientated offensive system despite his history as a quarterback.

  • In 2022 the Browns finished with a 7-10 record (4th AFC North) while ranking 17th in Points Per Game (21.2), 8th in Rush Percentage (51.9%) and 28th Ranked Pass Percentage (48.1%).

  • Notable Offensive Additions: WR Elijah Moore, WR Marquise Goodwin, QB Joshua Dobbs, Rookie WR Cedric Tillman, Rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson.

  • Notable Offensive Subtractions: RB Kareem Hunt.

Quarterback

  • Deshaun Watson struggled mightily in 2022, returning after a nearly two-year layoff from the NFL.

  • Watson finished the 2022 season ranked 34th in True Throw Value, averaging 15.1 PPG in only six games played.

  • Despite his downfall and coinciding regression, the former league-winning upside of Watson’s profile remains a strong hope for managers this season as he is currently being selected as the QB9 (71st Overall). 

  • There is not much positive to point towards when looking back on Watson’s most recent sample of games.

  • In 2022 he only had 2 games over 200 passing yards, mirroring that with just two games with multiple passing touchdowns.

  • Watson managed a mere seven touchdowns in six starts while throwing five interceptions and fumbling three times.

  • The former speeding scrambler also had zero games over 50 rushing yards with only one rushing touchdown.

  • Watson did however finish the season with two top-8 positional performances in Week 17 and Week 18, further fueling the hope of a rebound for the former All-Pro quarterback.

  • Watson has never started a full season below QB5 in PPG and has extra weapons at his disposal in the form of Elijah Moore and unproven but promising rookie talent Cedric Tillman.

  • The risk of continued regression is somewhat baked into Watson’s QB9 ADP and managers that are willing to take the gamble have the undeniable upside of a top-5 overall fantasy season.

Running Back

  • A heated Heat Wave debate ensues surrounding Nick Chubb and his potential increased opportunity share sans Kareem Hunt.

  • Chubb has consistently been one of the best pure-runners in the NFL during his five-year career but does not have the upside of RB1 overall due to his lack of receiving.

  • Projecting a miraculous outlier breakout in receiving or a record-breaking increase in opportunity share for Chubb in his sixth season as an NFL running back is asinine at best.

  • Chubb has never once finished as a top-5 running back in PPG during the last five seasons.

  • Chubb has only one season with more than 53.0% of the offensive snaps, one season with at least 27 receptions and just two seasons above 175 receiving yards.

  • In 2022 the Browns running back had only one fantasy finish inside of the top-5 at his position. In contrast, Chubb recorded eight games outside of the top-18 running backs in fantasy.

Wide Receiver

  • Amari Cooper will enter the season 2023 season at 29 years old, serving his second season with the Browns after a roller coaster year in 2022.

  • The bumpy road that Cooper’s managers rode last season was a hilarious trend of incredible home game performances followed by disastrous road game splits.

  • Cooper's away game finishes were disastrous finishing as the WR80 against the Panthers, WR91 against the Falcons, WR39 against the Ravens, and WR62 against the Dolphins before Watson returned to the lineup.

  • Cooper’s lows were met by several highs as the veteran wideout set a career-high in touchdowns (9) in 2022.

  • Cooper is a fringe top-15 weekly producer but fits the draft build of a wide receiver-heavy team rather than a WR2 anchor.

  • Elijah Moore enters the mix after a dysfunctional breakup and ensuing trade from the Jets to the Browns.

  • Moore finished his rookie season as the WR7 in PPG from Week 13 to Week 18 but found himself in Robert Saleh’s doghouse during his second season amidst character concerns with the wideout.

  • Moore has decent appeal as a post-hype sleeper if Watson can emerge as a top-tier quarterback once again.

Tight End

  • David Njoku is extremely athletic, superbly talented, and handsomely paid as the number one tight end for the Browns.

  • Health and durability have always been concerns surrounding the prototypical receiving threat.

  • Njoku finished as the TE8 in True Target Value, matching his expected output with a TE8 (10.1) PPG finish.

  • Once again, he failed to play in a full season, suiting up for 14 games.

  • Njoku managed to earn 80 targets in those 14 games, ranking 11th in Target Share (18.6%) with a 12th-ranked Target Rate (22.2%).

  • Njoku hauled in 58 of his 80 targets for a total of 628 receiving yards with four touchdowns. The Browns tight end averaged 10.8 Yards Per Reception, marking a surprisingly low YPR for the uber-athletic tight end despite a highly productive season.

  • Njoku showcased the upside you want in a late-round tight end selection, posting five finishes within the top 6 tight ends, including four games over 15.0 PPR points. 

  • Unfortunately, Njoku also exemplified the low floor you receive with a late-round tight end selection, posting four games below 8.0 PPR points.

  • Njoku was a primary scoring threat for the Browns' passing game in 2022, recording 20 Red Zone Opportunities (TE3) and eight plays over 20 yards (TE6).

Dynasty Sleepers and Stashes

  • Jerome Ford offers dynasty managers with a high-upside handcuff stash in one of the most effective running offenses in the NFL.

  • Fellow unknowns such as D’Ernest Johnson have run wild within Stefanski’s system and Ford could be staring down the barrel of a monumental opportunity share and subsequent value swing should the Browns lead back get injured.

Full Episode

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Offensive Outlook

  • Mike Tomlin enters year 17 as the Steelers' Head Coach, his 26th Year in the NFL.

  • Tomlin has the second-longest active coaching tenure in the NFL (behind only Bill Belichick).

  • Over his head coaching tenure in Pittsburgh, Tomlin has led the Steelers to seven AFC North titles and has guided the Steelers to the playoffs 10 times.

  • In his 16 seasons, he has never had a losing record.

  • Matt Canada enters his second year as Steelers offensive coordinator, only his 3rd year as an NFL coach/assistant.

  • Originally hired by the Steelers as the quarterbacks coach and spent one year in the role.

  • In 2022, the Steelers finished with a 9-8 record (3rd AFC North). The team ranked 26th in Points Per Game (18.1), 15th in Rush Percentage (46.7%) and 21st Ranked Pass Percentage (53.3%).

  • Notable Offensive Additions: WR Allen Robinson II, OG Isaac Seumalo, Rookie TE Darnell Washington

  • Notable Offensive Subtractions: None of Note.

Quarterback

  • Kenny Pickett is not a factor in standard redraft leagues.

  • Furthermore, Pickett has minimal upside in Superflex leagues outside of the Dynasty format.

  • Pickett will need to improve at an astronomical rate for him to be a serviceable quarterback for fantasy purposes.

  • However, a small progression from terrible to mediocre in Pickett’s second season could help to lift his pass-catchers back into the limelight of fantasy-relevant producers.

Wide Receiver

  • There is a zero percent chance that we are discussing Allen Robinson as a viable draft selection this season.

  • After being selected as a top-15 WR in 2022, Diontae Johnson’s stock has taken a considerable hit, falling all the way to WR29 on draft boards in 2023.

  • Johnson is a separation sensei with masterful route running and a proven track record of out-producing his ADP and expected points per game averages.

  • The Steelers wideout broke out in his second season, finishing as the WR22 in PPG (14.2) followed by a WR7 finish in PPG (17.2) in his third season.

  • His worst statistical season came in 2022 where he set an unfortunate NFL record for most targets in a single season without a touchdown (147 Targets/0 Touchdowns).

  • Unless you are projecting another scoreless season for the Steelers' top wideout, he is an excellent selection at current cost.

  • Second-year standout George Pickens flashed some promise with highlight-reel catches as a deep threat for the Steelers last season.

  • Pickens tallied a 15.6% (WR58) target share as a rookie.

  • The highlights may be blinding many to the raw averages that Pickens produced, several of which were lackadaisical and uninspiring.

  • Pickens had just two games in 2022 with more than six targets and only four games with more than five receptions, finishing as the WR48 in PPG (9.8).

Running Back

  • If Najee Harris is the question the answer is a resounding NO!

  • Harris is an inefficient volume-dependent plodder on one of the league’s worst offenses with one of the league’s worst quarterbacks and one of the league’s worst offensive lines. 

  • Assuming the Steelers running back will reach the same near-400 touch threshold that we saw in his rookie season is ludicrous.

  • Leading the NFL in opportunity share and total touches is likely the only way Harris returns the value of his current ADP. 

  • Harris recorded one of the most inefficient seasons and drastic regression of any running back in the NFL following his rookie season.

  • Harris finished ranked, 63rd in Fantasy Points Per Opportunity, 62nd in PPOxTD, 30th in Yards Per Reception, 28th in Yards Per Route, 52nd in Yards Per Touch, 45th in Yards Created Per Touch, 19th in Total Yards Created, 51st in Breakaway Run Rate, and a hilariously lowly EPA ranked 154th overall.

  • Harris is a soon-to-be 26-year-old ineffective plodder on a bottom-feeding offense with a dumpster-fire quarterback and regressing opportunity share. 

  • The former Alabama alum has proven he needs astronomical volume to maintain top-end production. 

Tight End

  • Pat Freiermuth is as consistent as it gets at the tight end position despite only being in his second year in the league.

  • Freiermuth was by far the brightest spot of the Steelers' offense last season, posting nine TE1 finishes in 16 games played.

  • Freiermuth finished second on the team in targets, receptions and receiving yards in 2022.

  • The Steelers starting tight end is an excellent safety net with the potential to break out as a top-6 option if Pickett progresses as a quarterback.

  • In his second season, Freiermuth finished with 63 receptions (TE6) on 98 targets (TE5) for 732 receiving yards (TE6), boasting a top-10 Target Share (19.0%) and top-8 Target Rate (24.9%) with a top-12 PPG finish despite only catching two touchdowns on an offense that had 11 total passing touchdowns on the season.

Dynasty Sleepers and Stashes

  • The Steelers coaching staff has instilled a lot of hype and confidence into Jaylen Warren, saying they want to run more of a committee backfield while preserving the health of franchise running back Najee Harris.

  • Warren was incredibly efficient in a small sample size, perhaps helping to ignite the intrigue of the Steelers coaching staff.

  • Warren ranked 18th in Fantasy Points per opportunity, 11th In Yards Per Touch, 5th In Yards Created per Touch and 2nd in EPA while averaging 4.9 Yards Per Carry and 7.6 Yards Per Reception as a receiving threat.

  • Warren finished the 2022 season with 77 rush attempts for 379 yards, adding 28 receptions for 214 yards and one touchdown.

  • The former undrafted free agent has legitimate upside as one of the most overlooked handcuffs in Dynasty leagues.

  • Honorable mention to the generational athlete that is rookie tight end Darnell Washington who landed with arguably the worst possible team for his career range of outcomes as he is stuck behind a young star in Pat Freiermuth.

  • Washington does not possess the same receiving experience as his teammate, posting just 45 receptions and three touchdowns in 28 career collegiate games.

  • What Washington lacks as a refined route runner and pass-catcher he more than makes up for in raw athleticism and unmatched intangibles.

  • The former Georgia prospect is 6 '7 " with a 4.64s 40-yard dash time, boasting hands that measure one foot in diameter, a wingspan that measures 6’ 9” and registered the highest strength grade of any tight end in the 2023 NFL Draft.

  • You can’t teach what Washington has. Everything he’s lacking can be developed. Be sure to stash the Steelers' new rookie tight end for his inevitable late-career breakout.

Full Episode

Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.

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By Matt Ward