The Broto Heat Wave brings you daily previews of every team’s fantasy football prospects in 2023. 32 teams in 32 days. Today we are recapping the episodes from the AFC South, bringing you quick-hitting bullets that summarize everything you need to know about the players and coaches in this division.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Offensive Outlook
Head coach Doug Pederson is in his second season as the Jaguars' leading skipper.
Took over after the Urban Mayer train wreck, taking the Jaguars from 3-14 and their 2nd consecutive first overall pick in 2021 to a 9-8 record, winning the AFC South with a playoff berth in 2022.
Brings in a familiar favorite at offensive coordinator in the form of former Colts offensive coordinator/assistant and long-time Eagles quarterback coach Press Taylor to help bolster a young budding offense looking to make the next step towards dominance.
This is coach Taylor’s 1st season in Jacksonville and his 10th season in the NFL.
Taylor Spent the 2013-20 seasons on Philadelphia’s coaching staff, including five seasons with Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson from 2016-20.
Won Super Bowl LII with the Eagles as a member of Pederson’s staff.
Coached Carson Wentz during his near-MVP Run. During that stretch Wentz became one of six quarterbacks in NFL history to throw for 20-plus touchdowns and 10-or-fewer interceptions in three consecutive seasons (2017-19), joining Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson as the only players to accomplish the feat.
Was last with the Colts, helping the team become one of six offensive units in the NFL to boast a 1,000-yard rusher (RB Jonathan Taylor; 1,811 yards) and 1,000-yard receiver (WR Michael Pittman Jr; 1,082 yards) in 2021.
Taylor is known for getting the most out of every quarterback he coaches and now has the generational arm talent and processing of a mature third-year Trevor Lawrence at his disposal.
The Jaguars finished the 2022 season ranked 9th in Points Per Game (23.9), 14th in Team Pass Percentage (57.1%) and 18th in Team Rush Percentage (42.9%).
Notable Offensive Additions: WR Calin Ridley, RB D’Ernest Johnson, RB Jamycal Hasty, Rookie RB Tank Bigsby, Rookie WR Parker Washington, Rookie TE Brenton Strange.
Notable Offensive Subtractions: OT Juwan Taylor.
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence progressed from one of the absolute worst statistical rookie seasons in the history of the NFL, blossoming into a true franchise quarterback with superstar potential in his second season.
Trevor Lawrence attempted 605 passes as a rookie, completing 59.6% of those passes for just 3641 yards with 12 touchdowns while leading the league with 17 interceptions, averaging 12.9 PPG as the QB29.
In year 2, his first with a competent NFL-level head coach, Lawrence tossed 25 touchdowns (8th) with just seven interceptions, throwing for 4113 yards (9th) on fewer attempts than his rookie season, upping his completion percentage to 66.3% while adding five rushing touchdowns and boasting a top-7 EPA.
Lawrence also finished top 10 in rushing yards and top 5 in rushing TDs.
He jumped from averaging 12.9 PPG as a rookie to 17.9 PPG as a sophomore, solidifying himself as a bonafide top-12 fantasy quarterback.
As a rookie Lawrence was QB30 overall in true throw value. In 2022 he finished as the QB14 Overall in true throw value for players with more than 300 attempts but he is QB5 in true throw value for quarterbacks that started all 17 games.
Lawrence’s True Player Grade in his rookie season was 27.4 which is an F grade and came in at QB30. True Player Grade in year two jumped to 80.9 (B) ranked as QB6 overall.
Disappointed in the final game against Houston but scored 33.4 (QB1) and 27.8 (QB5) in the fantasy playoffs.
Lawrence took the Jaguars from a team that garnered two consecutive first-round picks to the leaders of the AFC South and their first playoff berth since 2017.
Lawrence is an excellent late-round QB target with an ADP of QB8/66th Overall.
Running Back
Travis Etienne has all the potential to return incredible value but has yet to be given a workhorse opportunity share for a full season that reflects his supposed talent level.
Etienne did not receive a snap share above 50.0% until Week 7 of the 2022 season.
After Week 7 and the trade of James Robinson, Etienne received more than 70.0% of the snaps in all but two games. Those two games included a blowout win and an injury game that cut Etienne’s playing time short.
Etienne produced 4 RB1 finishes in a seven-game stretch, exhibiting his incredible ceiling as a superstar talent.
The second-year back is the top rushing and receiving option out of the backfield for the Jaguars, who are expected to be a top-10 scoring offense.
Etienne has an ADP of RB14, providing excellent value in the late third round as an RB anchor for your fantasy rosters.
Tank Bigsby was once coveted as a franchise-altering prospect with elite traits as a pure rusher.
Unfortunately, the third-round rookie was unable to improve on a stellar freshman season at Auburn, falling victim to continued regression in all efficiency stats amidst incompetent coaching, two complete staff overhauls and horrendous offensive line play.
Bigsby may be in line to steal some short-yardage/goal-line work from Etienne but the latter option will likely be a dominant leader in snap percentage and opportunity share for the Jaguars.
Wide Receiver
Calvin Ridley returns from injury/suspension as the unquestioned WR1 for the Jaguars.
The last time Ridley played an entire season he ranked 7th in the NFL in total targets (143), 8th in receiving touchdowns (9), 4th in receiving yards (1347), 4th in PPR PPG (18.8) as the WR5 Overall and drastically outplayed his True Target Value of WR13 (4.19).
Ridley has a ceiling with top-12 upside but has an ADP outside of the top-18 wide receivers.
Christian Kirk remains the top option for running routes from the slot.
Kirk finished last season averaging 14.2 PPG (WR18).
The veteran slot receiver secured 18 big plays of over 20 yards or more last season as the number one option for Lawrence. Kirk also had a career-high eight receiving touchdowns.
Kirk is likely facing serious target share regression with Ridley on the active roster.
Kirk secured a 22.3% target share as the Jaguars' top wideout in 2022. There is a 0% chance he leads the Jaguars in targets once again if Ridley remains healthy.
Tight End
Evan Engram began the 2022 season in mediocre fashion, averaging 3.4 receptions for 32.4 yards and 7.2 PPR PPG (TE26) through the first 11 weeks.
Then to close out the season Engram averaged 6 receptions a game for 66.8 yards and 15.84 PPR PPG (TE2), trailing only Travis Kelce in PPG during that stretch.
Engram’s end-of-season breakout coincided with the exact moment Trevor Lawrence crossed the threshold into elite quarterback territory.
You cannot talk about Engram’s end-of-season success without again mentioning the developmental leap had by his quarterback.
Over the final seven weeks of 2022, Lawrence led all quarterbacks in PFF Passing Grade, surpassing Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow during that stretch.
Lawrence was also averaging a salacious 27.2 PPG in that span.
From Week 10 onward Lawrence put up 8.5 aY/A (5th), 5.8% TD Rate (6th), and 86.7 PFF Grade (1st).
The connection between Engram and Lawrence to close on the season was tangible and led the Jaguars on a run that had them atop the AFC South.
Engram finished the season with career-highs across the board accumulating 73 receptions on 98 targets, good for a 17.1% target share.
He put up 766 yards and 4 touchdowns averaging 10.4 PPG (TE7) but ranked 18th amongst TEs in True Target Value.
Engram’s ADP is an excellent value (TE8/100 Overall) for those unwilling to pay up for the “elite” options at tight end.
Dynasty Sleepers and Stashes
Brenton Strange is a highly athletic tight end with incredible NFL Combine grades and high draft capital.
Strange fights hard off the line of scrimmage, showing good timing and release whether in-line or against press coverage.
Adds immense value to the run game as an elite blocker.
Very creative runner in the open field and fights through arm tackles and smaller defensive backs with ease. Strange could be a sneaky YAC threat in years to come.
Shows good sense as a route runner and provides an enormous catch radius over the middle of the field.
Strange has soft hands and uses his frame effectively to shield defenders, making him a major threat in the red zone.
Offers alignment versatility with athleticism and toughness.
61st Pick. Good NFL Draft Capital. Good NFL Draft Profile. Good System for Success.
Does not hurt that Strange will have Trevor Lawrence to develop with for years.
Full Episode
TENNESSEE TITANS
Offensive Outlook
Mike Vrabel is in year five as the Titans' head coach.
During his first four seasons in Tennessee, Vrabel led the Titans to a 43-27 overall record and three postseason appearances.
Enters 2023 with a new contract and lengthy extension despite missing the 2022 playoffs with a disappointing 7-10 record after winning the AFC South and top seed with a 12-5 record the season prior.
Tim Kelly enters his first season as the offensive coordinator and second season with the Titans.
Served last year as the Titans' passing game coordinator.
Prior to joining the Titans, Kelly spent eight seasons (2014-21) with the Texans in a variety of coaching roles, including Offensive Coordinator (2019-21), Tight Ends (2017-18), Assistant Offensive Line (2016) and Offensive Quality Control (2014-16).
Although his 2022 resume is defunct with failure, Kelly boasts an impressive resume of quarterback success.
With Kelly as the Texans' Offensive Coordinator in 2021, Davis Mills set a franchise rookie record for passing yards (2,664), ranked second among NFL rookies in passer rating (88.8) and led all NFL quarterbacks in red-zone passer rating (116.8). Wide receiver Brandon Cooks also set a career-high with 90 receptions.
In 2020, Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson led the NFL in passing yards (4,823) and yards per attempt (8.9) while ranking second in passer rating (112.4) and third in completion percentage (70.2%) under Kelly’s tutelage.
While Kelly was with the Texans, the team captured four AFC South division titles.
The Titans finished the 2022 season ranked 28th in Points Per Game (17.5), with the 4th Lowest Pass Percentage (48.4%) and the 4th Highest Rush Percentage (51.6%).
Notable Offensive Additions: WR DeAndre Hopkins, OT Andre Dillard, Rookie RB Tyjae Spears, Rookie QB Will Levis, Rookie OG Peter Skoronski.
Notable Offensive Subtractions: OG Nate Davis, OT Taylor Lewan, C Ben Jones, WR Robert Woods.
Quarterback
Ryan Tannehill may be on his way out of the Titans organization as the team has drafted quarterbacks in back-to-back drafts.
Nevertheless, the veteran signal-caller will return in 2023 as the leader under center, helming a much-improved but new-look offense.
Tannehill remains an afterthought in seasonal leagues with an ADP outside of the top 24 quarterbacks.
The Titans' acquisition of DeAndre Hopkins suggests they trust in Tannehill for at least one more season as they make a final push to return as kings of the AFC and number one seed in the conference.
Tannehill did, however, appear to show his age last season, playing in just 12 games and only one weekly finish above 20.0 fantasy points.
Tannehill had zero games with more than 2 passing touchdowns and just one game with more than 16 rushing yards, showing regression in his rushing upside as well.
The Titans veteran quarterback remained highly efficient on a per-attempt basis, ranking 7th in YPA (7th) and 19th ranked True Throw Value despite a dearth of pass-catching options.
The addition of Hopkins and a healthy second-year Treylon Burks could help Tannehill claw his way back into the fantasy football lexicon of viable quarterback assets.
Wide Receiver
DeAndre Hopkins made a huge splash in free agency after signing a two-year contract with the Titans with an AAV of 13 Million Per Year and incentives that can make it up to 15 million annually.
Hopkins is coming off an injury-riddled season in 2021 followed by a suspension-reduced season in 2022, playing only 19 games combined during that span.
Last season, when active and healthy, Hopkins was a truly elite fantasy asset and inarguably the Cardinals' best offensive weapon as Marquise Brown, Rondale Moore, Zach Ertz and Kyler Murray all faced injuries of their own.
Hopkins returned in Week 7 with a 20.3 point WR 8 finish, following it up with a 33.9 WR2 finish in Weeks 8, earning 13 and 14 targets in each contest.
The veteran wideout then had a down game the following week as he was surprisingly locked up by star rookie cornerback Tariq Woolen. Luckily for his fantasy managers, Hopkins still found the back of the endzone in that contest finishing with 13.6 points as the WR21.
Hopkins then put up games of 19.8, 18.1, 18.7, 12.9 and 13.0 points followed by a shockingly disappointing 1.4-point outing in Week 16.
Hopkins posted double-digit targets and double-digit fantasy points in 7 of 9 games played last season, earning a 29.4% Target Share (WR4), and 29.6% Target Rate (WR8) with an air yards share of 43.5% ranked 2nd despite missing 8 games.
When diving into Hopkin's reception perception profile you’ll find that the star wideout’s success rates were all career lows with him having major regression on slants, posts and straight/go routes.
The positive note is that although he regressed in his success percentage on every route are still well above league-average as his career-highs are historically elite.
Hopkins finished 10th in REC YD/G, and 9th in PPG despite a TTAV of 17th. He also somehow produced a TTAV of 17th despite catching passes from Colt McCoy, Trace McSorley and David Blough for most of the season, although his best games came when Kyler was Healthy from Week 7 through Week 11.
Treylon Burks showed flashes last season but was ultimately ineffective and inconsequential to your rosters in fantasy.
He played in just 11 games amidst conditioning and injury issues, providing 8.6 PPG (WR56) when healthy.
Burks saw 54 targets, catching 33 balls for 44 yards (13.5 YPR) and one touchdown.
Although it would be disingenuous to measure Burks’ rookie season on counting stats alone, it is worth noting that his peripheral averages weren’t all that impressive either.
He earned a mere 17.6% target share (WR45) and 70.7% route participation (WR72) in healthy games.
Burks ranked 32nd in Yard Per Route Run, 44th in Yard Per Target, 32nd in Yard Per Reception, 44th Ranked Yards Per Team Pass Attempt, 31st in Fantasy Points Per Route, 48th in Fantasy Points Per Target and 106th OVR in True Target Value, receiving little to no help from poor quarterback play.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is 27 years old and has never had more than 60 targets in a single season. He has never had more than 40 receptions in a single season. And he has never had more than 500 yards in a single season.
Westbrook-Ikhine should be ignored in all formats.
Kyle Philips put everyone on notice in Week 1 of his rookie season against the Giants when he received 9 targets on just 17 routes for an absurd 52.9% target rate, catching six for 66 yards.
Then…the rookie was never heard from again.
Philips ended up playing in just four games total in 2022, amidst several nagging injuries.
The sophomore will get a chance to redeem himself in 2023 as the number three option alongside Treylon Burks and DeAndre Hopkins.
Philips could serve as the team’s primary slot receiver and short-yardage target for an offense that has traditionally operated their passing attack at a low depth of target.
Running Back
Derrick Henry is an elite player and undoubted future Hall-of-Famer but father time may rear his ugly head sooner rather than later.
Henry accrued 382 touches last season, adding a career-high in receptions to his resume.
With an early second-round ADP of RB8, Henry’s acquisition cost is the lowest it has been in years.
Tight End
Chigoziem Okonkwo’s ADP of TE11 is absurd for a second-year tight end that flashed an unrepeatable upside in an extremely small sample size.
Okonkwo secured zero games with more than 53.0% of the offensive snaps last season, topping a snap share higher than 50.0% only twice.
The rookie tight end ran more than 16 routes on only one occasion.
Okonkwo had only one game the entire season with more than four receptions and only three games with more than 10.0 fantasy points.
Dynasty Sleepers and Stashes
Although Tyjae Spears will likely be rostered in most Dynasty leagues, managers will have to be patient and stash the uber-productive running back out of Tulane for his first season at least.
Spears accumulated 2,910 yards and 31 touchdowns (6.8 YPC) in his 33-game career at Tulane but entered the NFL with several injury concerns surrounding his surgically repaired knee.
The Titans felt like third-round NFL Draft capital was enough to mitigate said concerns, selecting Spears with the 81st overall selection.
A potential heir to King Henry’s throne, Spears could become a fixture in one of the league’s best-rushing offenses if the veteran superstar fizzles out.
Full Episode
HOUSTON TEXANS
Offensive Outlook
DeMeco Ryans brings a no-nonsense defensive philosophy to the Texans, after years of success captaining the 49ers league-leading defense.
Sixth head coach in Texans franchise history but the third new head coach in three seasons.
Ryans was named the 2022 Pro Football Writers of America Assistant Coach of the Year.
He recently completed his sixth season with the 49ers and second as the team's defensive coordinator, helping lead the team to the NFC Championship.
Ryans spent the previous three seasons (2018-20) as the 49ers inside linebackers coach while serving as the team's defensive quality control coach in 2017.
49ers 2022 Defense Ranks: 1st in Total Points Allowed (277), 1st in PPG Allowed (16.3), 2nd in Rushing Yards Allowed (77.7/g).
Ryans also showed some obvious nepotism with his first major hire as head coach bringing in Bobby Slowik as the team’s new offensive coordinator.
Slowik joins the Houston Texans as the team's offensive coordinator after spending six seasons with the 49ers.
Slowik most recently served as the offensive passing game coordinator in 2022.
Slowik got his start with the 49ers during the same season as DeMeco Ryans, with both coaches serving as defensive quality control coaches.
Slowik helped to manage a quarterback-friendly system for the 49ers, although it appears clear now that Mike McDaniel and Kyle Shanahan were the two masters behind the offense's success.
The Texans finished the 2022 season ranked 30th in Points Per Game (17.0), 11th in Team Pass Percentage (59.3%) and 21st in Team Rush Percentage (40.7%).
Notable Offensive Additions: WR Robert Woods, RB Devin Singletary, TE Dalton Schultz, OG Shaq Mason, Rookie QB C.J. Stroud, Rookie WR Tank Dell, Rookie WR Xavier Hutchinson.
Notable Offensive Subtractions: WR Brandin Cooks.
Quarterback
C.J. Stroud was a top-rated prospect coming out of Ohio State, solidifying his phenomenal resume with elite draft capital at 2nd overall in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Unfortunately for Stroud, the Texans are potentially the worst supporting cast he has played with after throwing the ball to no less than five first-round NFL wide receivers while at Ohio State.
Stroud does not have the rushing upside and athleticism of his fellow quarterback draft mates, posting career-high collegiate rushing totals of 108 yards on 47 attempts.
Stroud’s ADP falls outside of the top-24 quarterbacks in Redraft and Best Ball leagues this season, reflecting a justifiable fear of growing pains and a lack of offensive help surrounding the rookie quarterback.
Running Back
Dameon Pierce is being drafted far too high for the risk of investment to pay off, especially when considering the assets being selected before and after the second-year running back.
Pierce managed just 30 receptions last season, losing passing work to Rex Burkhead on several occasions.
Pierce is a plodding in-between-the-tackles runner with low efficiency, leaving managers to rely on positive game scripts and unsustainable volume.
Devin Singletary also joins the mix, entering the Texans roster after posting his best statistical season to date with the Bills in 2022.
Singletary is a complete back with a veteran presence that could immediately render Pierce a low-volume/touchdown-dependent headache for fantasy managers.
Singletary is going off the boards as RB48 despite being the most complete and established running back on the Texans roster.
Wide Receiver
Nico Collins is everyone’s favorite sleeper wide receiver to leap forward in 2023 but has yet to do anything throughout his career to suggest that such a breakout is even possible.
Collins recorded 33 receptions as a rookie, upping those numbers by a menial amount, recording 37 in his sophomore season.
He has averaged 6.0 (WR76) and 9.7 (WR49) PPR PPG over his first two seasons and has yet to surpass the top 36 players in any positive peripheral stats.
At 6’4 and 215 lbs, Collins merely looks the part of a WR1. His play across the past two seasons suggests he is a much smaller contributor than his size reflects.
Robert Woods is the only receiver on the Texans' offense to have more than 70 targets and 50 receptions in a single season.
The veteran brings a committed understanding of the offensive playbook and much-needed experience and mentorship to one of the weakest wide receiver rooms assembled in recent memory.
Woods’ is at the tail end of his career and saw his production take a drastic dip while on the Titans. Truthfully, no wide receiver could have survived in the Titans' injury-riddled offensive system in 2022. Woods averaged 6.8 PPG (WR81) despite leading the Titans in targets, receptions and receiving yards.
Woods gets a fresh start with a new quarterback in rookie CJ Stroud and could once again easily lead the team in all receiving categories just by simply existing as the lone proven receiving threat on a struggling offense.
Tight End
Dalton Schultz is being drafted as the TE14 on average in redraft leagues this season, offering incredible stability and legitimate top-12 upside for a player that could easily lead his team in targets.
Schultz is only 27 years old and has flashed legitimate TE1 potential in the past although recently regressed in his final season with the Cowboys in 2022.
Schultz managed just 57 receptions on 81 targets for 577 yards and five touchdowns, marking the worst statistical season since his 2019 breakout.
Despite the dropoff in counting stats, Schultz remained a low-end TE1 in PPG.
Schultz also managed five games as the TE5 or better in 2022, exemplifying the upside manager's chase at the tight end position.
A regression in target value is to be expected for Schultz after transitioning from Dak Prescott to C.J. Stroud but he will also have much less target competition and could serve as the Texans' top pass-catcher.
Dynasty Sleepers and Stashes
John Metchie was a highly productive slot receiver out of Alabama, selected in the 2nd round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Unfortunately, a leukemia diagnosis kept the promising young wideout from ever seeing the field in his rookie season.
All reports surrounding Metchie’s health this season have been positive. The team has cleared the 2nd-year receiver for on-field duties, participating in all voluntary team training camp activities throughout the summer.
The unmitigated hype surrounding Nico Collins has seemingly left Metchie as the forgotten piece of the Texans' offense. He is only 22 years old, with a positive prospect profile and decent NFL Draft capital.
Metchie is arguably more talented and capable than Nico Collins and could push Robert Woods for snaps and targets as the top pass-catcher.
Metchie is an excellent short-yardage target, serving as a much-needed security blanket for rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud.
Unfortunately, Metchie will also be battling for inside snaps with our next Dynasty Stash and a player that could overtake his role before it is ever established, Houston University standout Tank Dell.
Dell is an analytic dream, leading the NCAA in touchdowns and team touchdown share in 2022.
He is an incredible athlete, albeit in a pint-sized frame, boasting elite speed and separation skills with incredible open-field elusiveness.
Stroud personally asked the Texans organization to draft the undersized Dell, a request upon which the front office delivered immediately, using their third-round pick on the hometown Houston alum.
Full Episode
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Offensive Outlook
The franchise fired former head coach Frank Reich in the middle of the 2022 season, allowing the circus show led by Jeff Saturday to finish out the campaign.
Entering the 2023 season, the Colts have revamped their entire coaching staff.
Shane Steichen enters his first year as the Colts' Head Coach at only 38 years old, making him the youngest head coach in franchise history.
Most recently the offensive coordinator for the Super Bowl-bound Philadelphia Eagles.
Steichen helped lead the Eagles to a 14-3 record and an NFC East division title.
Steichen entered the league in 2011 as a 24-year-old whizz kid becoming, a defensive Assistant for the Chargers before bouncing around multiple positions for the Browns and winding back with the Chargers from 2014-2020 as an offensive assistant, quarterbacks coach, interim offensive coordinator, and eventually offensive coordinator, sparking the breakout of Philip Rivers.
Signing as the offensive coordinator with the Eagles in 2020, Steichen turned around a bottoming offense. He brought Jalen Hurts and company to unforeseeable heights and success in 2022 (2nd in Scoring at 29.1 PPG, merely 0.01 PPG behind the league-leading Chiefs).
Steichen carries a detailed understanding of quarterback development and a complex, but effective, RPO philosophy to keep defenses honest.
"My philosophy is we're going to throw to score points in this league and run to win"
Eagles 2022 Offense: 24th in Pass% (49.6%/31.2 Pass Per Game), 5th in Rush % (50.4%/33.2 Rush Attempt Per Game). Led the league in Rush Attempts Per Game.
Jim Bob Cooter will serve as the Colts’ new offensive coordinator.
Cooter has 15 years of NFL experience, beginning his coaching tenure with the Colts in 2009 at the age of 23 as an offensive assistant.
Spent time with the Chiefs, Broncos, Lions, Jets, Eagles, and Jaguars, serving in all offensive capacities.
Linked up with Steichen in 2021 on the Eagles when Cooter was serving as an offensive consultant.
Most recently served as the passing game coordinator for the Jaguars, helping former Doug Pederson develop Trevor Lawrence into a star quarterback.
Cooter brings another voice and deep understanding of the quarterback position that should help develop the Colts' new franchise QB.
The Colts finished 2022 with a 4-12-1 record and ranked 19th in Points Per Game (20.6).
Notable Offensive Additions: QB Gardner Minshew, WR Breshad Perriman, Rookie QB Anthony Richardson, Rookie WR Josh Downs, Rookie RB Evan Hull.
Notable Offensive Subtractions: WR Parris Campbell.
Quarterback
The hype surrounding Anthony Richardson has pushed his ADP into the top-12 quarterbacks in 2023 but history tells us that investing in raw talents during their first year of NFL development does not bode well.
Consistent passing metrics are needed to achieve elite fantasy numbers as pure rushing upside alone is not enough to bolster consistent league-winning finishes.
Richardson has only one collegiate season as a starting quarterback, averaging just 212.0 yards per game as a passer.
There are only three rookie quarterbacks in NFL history to average over 17.0 PPG with fewer than 3800 passing yards in a single season. Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III, and Deshaun Watson are the three quarterbacks in question, all three of which averaged well over 212.0 passing yards per game in college and were much more prolific passers as prospects than Richardson.
Richardson is the most inaccurate and inefficient college quarterback to be selected in the top 5 of the NFL Draft in terms of Completion Percentage, Yards Per Attempt and Expected Points Added.
Richardson would be an extreme outlier to exceed his current value in redraft leagues.
Running Back
During Jonathan Taylor’s run as the RB1 in 2021, he posted averages of 21.9 PPR PPG which would mark the lowest RB1 average since 2008.
With the Colts drafting a run-first quarterback in Anthony Richardson and their offensive line decaying from the strength of years past, there is a narrative to be had that Taylor will never reach that peak again in his career.
Furthermore, the implementation of a new offensive system in a heavy RPO scheme could reduce both the volume and value of Taylor’s touches as Anthony Richardson vultures opportunities akin to the dynamic showcased between Jalen Hurts and Miles Sanders in years past.
Last season was dreadfully disappointing for 2022’s consensus RB1 in ADP. Taylor suited up for only 11 games, missing six, and averaged just 13.3 PPR PPG (RB17) marking the lowest total of his three-year career.
Taylor’s lack of volume and wavering availability was met with drastic slides down the efficiency ladder as well, lending to the narrative that the Colts' star running back is more volume-reliant than the truly elite game-changers at the position.
Taylor was 68th in Points Per Opportunity, 58th in PPOxTD, 37th in Yards Per Touch, 40th in Yards Created Per Touch and did little to improve his lack of efficiency as a receiver, finishing 33rd in Yards Per Reception and 33rd in Yards Per Route with an aDOT of negative (-)1.73 yards.
Taylor is undeniably talented but much like every other running back, is heavily reliant on the pieces and staff surrounding him to break through the tier of good to elite.
The Colts organization has recently placed Taylor on the Non-Football Injury list in an ugly dilemma amidst owner and general manager Jim Irsay and Taylor’s trade/contract negotiation status.
Wide Receiver
Michael Pittman was one of Broto’s favorite fades of the 2022 season which paid off as the Colts struggled to maintain a successful offense under coaching changes and the decline of Matt Ryan.
Pittman finished 2022 with 99 receptions 925 yards and four touchdowns, a far cry away from his inflated ADP.
The Colts were content on utilizing Pittman as a possession receiver, a role that greatly capped his impressive YAC-ability.
Pittman’s aDOT regressed from 8.8 yards to 6.9 yards from 2021 to 2022, securing just eight plays over 20 yards compared to 13 the season prior.
Pittman also had drastic drops in downfield targets, finishing 32nd in True Target Value, and 22nd in PPG despite a top-15 positional finish in target share.
All of that said, Pittman is currently going off of redraft boards as the WR34 on average.
Pittman’s 2023 ADP has drastically shifted downwards from last season, offering fairly decent value for the Colts' unquestioned top wideout.
Tight End
The Colts' roster is stacked with freakishly athletic tight ends that possess similar traits.
Mo Allie-Cox resides as the veteran presence, boasting incredible size and unpredictable breakout games.
Kylen Granson has flashed reliable upside as a security blanket for Colts quarterbacks in the past and is still only 25 years old.
Jelani Woods has all of the traits of a superstar breakout tight end but is incredibly raw and inexperienced as a second-year player.
Dynasty Sleepers and Stashes
Josh Downs should not be ignored as a viable dynasty asset. Downs dominated market shares for three consecutive seasons at UNC, posting incredible target shares while maintaining superior efficiency ratings.
We will not lay rest until Jelani Woods' rostership percentages are at 100.0% across all platforms and in all Dynasty formats.
I wouldn’t necessarily peg Woods as a deep sleeper as his name is certainly known in most Dynasty circles.
Woods’ roster percentages sit in the low-mid 70.0% on Sleeper’s platform and slightly higher in the low 80.0% on MyFantasyLeague.
Woods is 6’7” and 252 lbs with athletic scores above the 95th percentile across the board.
He boasts one of the most impressive relative athletic scores in NFL combine history, sitting 2nd overall at the tight end position.
Unfortunately, he is still raw and inexperienced by NFL standards when it comes to breakout tight ends.
However, Woods currently ranks ahead of Kylen Granson and Mo Allie-Cox as the Colts starting tight end for 2023 and his per-snap averages as a rookie were borderline elite albeit on a small sample size.
Woods ranked 12th amongst tight ends in Fantasy Points Per Route, 12th in Fantasy Points Per Target, 8th in Yards Per Reception, 15th in Yards Per Route Run, 14th in Yards Per Target and 10th in aDOT at 14.0 yards.
Full Episode
Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
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By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.