The Broto Heat Wave brings you daily previews of every team’s fantasy football prospects in 2023. 32 teams in 32 days. Today we are recapping the episodes from the NFC West, bringing you quick-hitting bullets that summarize everything you need to know about the players and coaches in this division.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Offensive Outlook
Head Coach Kyle Shanahan enters his 7th year with the 49ers after posting a 13-4 record last season despite housing a roster riddled with injuries.
Shanahan is the mastermind that drives the 49ers' offensive vehicle, taking on play-calling and offensive coordinator duties along with his head coaching title.
Chris Forrester (Offensive Line Coach/Run Game Coordinator) and Clint Kubiak (Assistant Head Coach) and Anthony Lynn (Running Back Coach) help Shanahan round out the offensive coaching staff.
The 49ers finished the 2022 season ranked 6th in PPG (25.9), 8th in rushing percentage (49.6%), and 27th in pass percentage (50.4%).
Notable Offensive Additions: QB Sam Darnold
Notable Offensive Subtractions: QB Jimmy Garappolo, OL Mike McGlinchey
Quarterback
Brock Purdy, Trey Lance, and Sam Darnold make up a three-headed trio of “potential” starting quarterbacks for the 49ers in 2023.
Purdy is returning from UCL surgery with only eight starts under his belt and no training camp to expedite his welcomed but unexpected development as the 49ers starter.
Purdy has two QB 1 finishes in eight starts, finishing as high as QB6 against Tampa Bay.
Lance is the quarterback most managers want in the starting role. Lance offers the most upside from a pure fantasy perspective.
Lance has just one QB1 finish in his career, plateauing at QB10 during his best fantasy performance.
Darnold is a long shot to see relevant playing time or production but has received high praise from the coaching staff this offseason.
Kyle Shanahan’s offense is a self-running machine, allowing his quarterbacks to throw short and easy passes while relying on the receivers to create massive gains after the catch.
Wide Receiver
Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk will likely dominate the wide receiver target share once again this season with irrelevant depth such as Juan Jennings, Chris Conley, and Danny Gray rounding out the 49ers depth chart.
Samuel faced major regression from 2021-2022, falling from WR3 in PPG in 2021 to WR24 in PPG in 2022.
Samuel’s incomparable rushing upside has dwindled with the presence of Christian McCaffrey and the rise of young third-year back Elijah Mitchell.
Samuel finished as the WR12 in True Target Value but ended as the WR24 in PPG.
Nonetheless, Samuel’s current 4th-round redraft ADP of WR17 appears to be an overreaction as he still offers tremendous value in that range compared to other relative assets.
Brandon Aiyuk put up similar production to Samuel in 2022 despite a much lower expected output. Aiyuk’s True Target Value ranked as WR22 but he managed 13.4 PPG (WR23).
Aiyuk played over 90.0% of offensive snaps in 2022, recording a higher target share (23.5%) than Samuel.
Aiyuk also recorded his first season with over 100 targets (111), 75 receptions (78) and 1000 receiving yards (1015).
If managers enjoy the value of Samuel’s WR17 ADP then they will love the value of Aiyuk’s WR29 ADP.
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey wins fantasy championships.
McCaffrey played half of the 2022 season with a broken-down Panthers offense that was rolling out Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and P.J. Walker as their starting quarterbacks.
McCaffrey was graciously traded during the middle of the season to the 49ers, finishing the year with an average of 21.0 PPG as the RB2 behind only Austin Ekeler.
McCaffrey led the league with a 21.8% target share, putting up 741 receiving yards on 85 receptions with an additional 1139 and 13 touchdowns.
CMC should be the first running back selected off draft boards in redraft leagues this season.
Elijah Mitchell is being vastly overlooked as a league-winning handcuff.
Even if McCaffrey remains healthy, Mitchell has proven his mettle within Shanahan’s system. He has a double-digit fantasy ceiling even when McCaffrey is on the field.
Should anything happen to McCaffrey, Mitchell would receive incredible volume as the starting back.
Tight End
Following the 49ers acquisition of Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle averaged under 5.0 targets per game.
Fortunately, Kittle’s incredible touchdown ceiling and YAC-ability kept him in the hunt as a fantasy asset even after his target share regressed.
Kittle finished as a TE7 or better six times in 2022. He also finished as TE20 or worse six times in 2022.
Kittle will always provide week-winning performances but his volatility is not always worth his rising ADP as TE6 overall.
Dynasty Sleepers and Stashes
Hon Mention: Trey Lance should not be cast away as a viable Superflex asset. There has never been a quarterback in the history of the NFL to be selected in the top 5 and not start at least 25 games.
Cameron Latu has an obvious path to relevance with George Kittle’s constant injury concerns.
Latu has eerily similar traits to Kittle in every way albeit to a lesser degree.
The rookie tight end possesses good burst and YAC-ability with incredible run blocking and sturdiness through contact.
Latu is a free stash with a viable shot at relevance and value gain in his rookie season.
Full Episode
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Offensive Outlook
Pete Carroll enters his 13th season as the Seahawks head coach, coming off a 9-8 season and a playoff berth after many felt like the team was entering a rebuilding phase after trading away Russell Wilson.
Shane Waldron returns as the offensive coordinator, his third year with the Seahawks.
The Seahawks ranked 9th in PPG last season (23.9) with an uncharacteristically high pass percentage ranked 13th (57.6%) and 23rd ranked rush percentage (42.4%).
Notable Offensive Additions: Rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Rookie RB Zach Charbonnet.
Notable Offensive Subtractions: None of note.
Quarterback
Geno Smith broke out after nine years in the NFL. The journeyman proved all doubters wrong posting a QB1 season with 18.7 PPG, ranked QB8.
Smith tossed for 29 touchdowns on 572 attempts for 4069 yards, setting career highs in all categories.
Smith was also top 7 amongst all quarterbacks in efficiency metrics across the board in 2022.
He also added 315 rushing yards with one touchdown to boost his combined TD total to a nice even 30 to end the season.
Smith boasted a True Throw Value of 0.485, ranked 6th for quarterbacks with more than 400 pass attempts in 2022.
Entering 2022 the Seahawks have doubled down on Smith as their starting quarterback.
The organization has surrounded him with a litany of deadly offensive weapons with the addition of superstar wideout prospect Jaxon Smith-Njigba and three-down workhorse running back Zach Charbonnet who join an already impressive supporting cast that includes DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Noah Fant, and second-year running back Kenneth Walker III.
Smith is being vastly overlooked as a viable fantasy quarterback in redraft leagues but should be viewed as an excellent late-round selection for those looking to grab a player with top-12 positional upside with their last pick.
Wide Receiver
Jaxon Smith-Njigba may have a difficult time slotting into an offense that has two target-hogging wide receivers dominating snaps on the outside.
Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf combined for 258 total targets, racking up over 50.0% of the team’s total passing opportunities.
JSN is considered a traditional slot receiver, a role that the Seahawks have rarely utilized in the past. Being selected in the first round as the first wide receiver off the board suggests that the Seahawks may be changing those philosophies.
Metcalf may have reached his peak. He finished 2022 with a True Target Value ranked WR8 but finished as WR20 in PPG.
Metcalf also ranked 2nd in red zone opportunities amongst wide receivers with 28 but managed only 6 touchdowns.
Lockett has proven to be the best value amongst Seahawks receivers every single season. His current ADP of WR34 offers incredible value despite the addition of a sensational rookie.
Lockett outperformed his True Target Value of WR28 with a WR17 PPG season, scoring nine total touchdowns despite having just nine total red zone opportunities.
Running Back
Kenneth Walker III had a tremendous rookie season, finishing as the RB17 in PPG with 13.5 despite not seeing more than 50.0% of the snaps until Week 5.
Walker totaled 10 of 12 games as the RB25 or better including three top-10 positional finishes.
Walker ended the season ranked 4th in red zone opportunities amongst running backs with 20 carries or more in half of his contests.
The second-year running back faces competition for touches in the form of newly added rookie Zach Charbonnet.
Charbonnet was drafted quite highly in the 2nd round at 52nd overall and possesses several positive qualities that Walker does not, mainly pass-catching and pass-blocking.
Charbonnet led the NCAA in all-purpose yards in 2022 with 168.0 YPG, showcasing his three-down skill set.
Walker still has decent value at RB17 even with the addition of Charbonnet.
Walker’s big play upside can provide weekly security despite a potentially lower-than-expected floor of production.
Tight End
Noah Fant appears to be the odd man out in the Seahawks' offense and should likely be avoided in redraft leagues.
In his first year as a Seahawk, Fant recorded career-low counting stats and averages across the board.
He earned just 63 targets, catching 50 passes for 486 yards and four touchdowns with an average of 7.2 PPG (TE23).
Fant’s snap percentages and route participation were also at a career low in 2022, suggesting the Seahawks brass doesn’t necessarily trust or need Fant on the field to be successful.
Fant recorded a 60.7% snap share and 57.6% route share reflecting numbers of a backup role player, not a high-functioning starter.
Dynasty Sleepers and Stashes
With all of that said, Noah Fant remains a high-priority dynasty stash.
Fant can still reach his coveted breakout at some point in his career as he boasts 99th percentile athleticism scores and is still only 25 years old.
It will certainly be scheme reliant but Fant has already flashed his undeniable upside at an early point in his career, enjoying two top-12 positional PPG finishes while playing for the Broncos.
With unmatchable athleticism and youth on his side, Fant has plenty of treads left on the tires to prove his detractors wrong.
Full Episode
ARIZONA CARDINALS
Offensive Outlook
The Cardinals bring in a brand new coaching staff to clean up the train wreck left behind by former head coach Kliff Kingsbury.
Jonathan Gannon steps in as the new head coach after serving as the Eagles' defensive coordinator.
Drew Petzing will serve as the Cardinals' offensive coordinator but has not stayed with one franchise for long.
Notable Offensive Additions: OL Kelvin Beachum, OL Will Hernandez, Rookie OL Paris Johnson, Rookie WR Michael Wilson.
Notable Offensive Subtractions: OG Justin Pugh, WR DeAndre Hopkins.
Quarterback
Kyler Murray will likely miss most of the 2023 season as he recovers from a brutal knee injury that ended his 2022 season early.
Murray’s rushing upside has regressed as of late. Over the last two seasons, Murray has posted 14 games with 30 rushing yards or less with only 11 games over that mark.
In 2022 Murray had a YPA of 6.1 (33rd), ranked 31st in True Throw Value, and 38th in Deep Completion Percentage.
Colt McCoy and Clayton Thune could very well play more games than Kyler Murray in 2023.
It would be wise to avoid the Cardinals quarterbacks entirely in redraft leagues this season.
Wide Receiver
Marquise Brown saw a career year in 2022 come crashing down due to a catastrophic foot injury that saw the wideout miss five games.
Once he returned, the Cardinals' offense had imploded at the hands of shotty play-calling and another disastrous injury, this time to star quarterback Kyler Murray.
Before being injured, the man they call “Hollywood” ranked as the WR5 in PPG, averaging 19.74 PPR PPG.
Brown was on pace for 122 receptions, 1374 yards, and nine touchdowns based on his pre-injury per-game averages.
Despite a disastrous second half of 2022, Brown finished with 67 receptions for 709 yards on 107 targets with three touchdowns, averaging 13.0 PPG (WR27) with a True Target Value of 32nd Overall.
In the wildly unlikely scenario that Brown maintains his averages from the previous season, he would still be an undervalued asset at WR35.
Although a decline in target value is worth noting, the drastic dip in Brown’s current ADP has seemingly not considered the departure of DeAndre Hopkins.
Brown stands alone atop the Cardinals' depth chart as the only wide receiver to secure more than 75 targets in a single season. The only other player on the roster to achieve such a feat is Zach Ertz who enters his age 32 season fresh off a complete ACL tear and reconstructive surgery.
Rondale Moore was maintaining a target share above 20.0% during his mini-breakout which led to him averaging 17.8 PPG over four weeks before being placed on IR.
Moore averages 16.2 PPG in games where he plays more than 90% of the offensive snaps.
Moore has put up double-digit fantasy points in 71.4% of his outings in the NFL, albeit on a very limited sample size.
Both wideouts will be nightmares to manage all season due to the Cardinals' low-scoring projections and bottom-tier offense. Brown and Moore are best suited for Best Ball formats.
Running Back
James Conner is staring down the pipeline of a monumental volume share on a terrible offense.
During two seasons with the Cardinals Conner has ranked 37th and 64th in YPC. He has also ranked outside of the top 30 in PPOxTD during the last two seasons.
In six weeks without Kyler Murray last season, Conner finished no lower than RB15, finishing as a top-12 running back four times.
Conner provides decent depth value at the running back position in fantasy drafts this season.
Tight End
Trey McBride has dethroned Zach Ertz as the preferred tight end in fantasy for the 2023 season, boasting a higher ADP in all redraft formats.
Ertz has been a steady producer throughout his career, finding resurgence with the Cardinals the past two seasons.
The veteran tight end has scored at least 9.0 fantasy points in 15/20 games as a Cardinal. For perspective, T.J. Hockenson posted seven games below 9.0 fantasy points just last season, further proving Ertz's incredible TE1 consistency.
Ertz finished as a top-12 tight end every single week before he got injured in Week 7 against the Saints.
McBride was far less consistent than Ertz but managed a late-season breakout, commanding 25 total targets from Week 14 through Week 17 but managed just one fantasy-relevant performance.
McBride secured seven receptions on 10 targets for 78 yards and one touchdown in Week 17, flashing his upside as the TE2 overall in Week 17.
Unfortunately, a touchdown-dependent position on a team that is not expected to score touchdowns does nothing for your rosters this season.
Dynasty Sleepers and Stashes
Michael Wilson brings one thing to the table that no other Cardinals receiver has: Size.
Wilson has prototypical alpha size and traits, standing 6’2” and weighing in at 216 lbs combined with the speed to give defensive backs serious concern.
The rookie out of Stanford will likely see a rising snap share throughout his inaugural season as the only wide receiver that can function as a big-bodied outside threat.
Full Episode
LOS ANGELES RAMS
Offensive Outlook
Sean McVay continues his tenure as the Rams' head coach, entering his 7th year with the franchise.
2022 marked the Rams' worst season under McVay’s tutelage as the team finished with a 5-12 record after winning the Super Bowl the year prior.
Mike Lafleur reunites with McVay as the Rams' new offensive coordinator after spending two sub-par seasons with the Jets.
Last season the Rams ranked 27th in PPG (18.1), ranking 19th in pass percentage (56.4%), and 19th in rush percentage (43.6%).
Notable Offensive Additions: Rookie WR Puka Nacau, Rookie RB Zach Evans, Rookie QB Stetson Bennet.
Notable Offensive Subtractions: QB Baker Mayfield.
Quarterback
Matthew Stafford is coming into 2023 fresh off the worst season of his career, culminating in a devastating elbow injury that would inevitably require surgery to repair.
The Rams' offensive line did no favors for Stafford and company, allowing league-high pressure rates and bottom-ranked yards before contact ratings.
Stafford appeared to be a shell of his former field-stretching self, managing a modest 6.7 Yards Per Attempt before missing the final 7 games of the season.
Stafford would finish the year with 2087 passing yards and 10 touchdowns.
The Rams star frontman averaged just 12.8 PPG (QB28) with a True Throw Value of 0.434 (QB27) after averaging 20.4 PPG (QB11) and leading the league with a True Throw Value of 0.646 (QB1) the season prior.
Although retirement rumors swirled around the whirlpool of Stafford’s declining career, the soon-to-be 36-year-old quarterback has refused to hang up the cleats just yet.
Stafford will enter the 2023 season in a familiar offense with a presumably healthy Cooper Kupp, a *slightly* improved offensive line, and Sean McVay and company gearing up for one last run at glory before blowing up the foundation that led them to a Super Bowl win in 2021.
An ADP of QB21 tells you everything you need to know about investing in Stafford in redraft leagues. He will likely be a season-long streamer with QB1 upside but it is hard to see Stafford becoming a perennial staple on your weekly rosters like years past.
Wide Receiver
Cooper Kupp is unguardable. Before being injured Kupp was averaging 22.4 PPR PPG (WR1).
Kupp missed a total of seven games and still saw 98 targets, averaging 9.8 per contest.
The entire offense runs through Kupp, giving the veteran star WR1 overall in his range of outcomes.
Running Back
Cam Akers stands atop the Rams' depth chart as the number one option at running back.
Sony Michel, Kyren Williams and rookie running back Zach Evans round out the depth chart.
Akers had a rollercoaster season in 2022, going from a complete afterthought for both the Rams and your fantasy roster to a must-start player with league-winning upside.
From Week 14-18 Akers posted outings with fantasy point totals of 19.0, 9.3, 34.7, 14.3 and 15.8.
Akers has an ADP of RB22/69th overall, providing some decent value if the young back can continue his late-season run from 2022.
Tight End
Tyler Higbee was surprisingly consistent to begin last season, registering three top-ten TE1 performances in the first five weeks of 2022. He finished the year with eight total top-10 positional finishes, albeit at an inconsistent level that left Higbee largely inconsequential to your roster’s overall production.
Higbee buoyed a career-high 108 targets (20.9%/TE4 TGT Share) into 72 receptions for 620 yards and three touchdowns.
Unfortunately, a career-high opportunity share did little to bolster the 30-year-old low-floor as he averaged 8.9 PPG (TE15).
Higbee had just as many games below 5.0 PPR points as he had over 10.0 PPR (seven each) while registering two games with a total of 0.0 points, leaving his presence a detriment to your weekly ceiling.
Entering 2023, He sits atop the depth chart as the starting tight end with little to no competition for targets as the secondary option behind Cooper Kupp.
Higbee is an intriguing late pick-up for those punting the TE position but be aware that regression in opportunity is likely on the horizon and Higbee does not possess elite efficiency ratings that suggest he can survive on minimal targets.
Dynasty Sleepers and Stashes
Before committing to TCU, Zach Evans was unanimously ranked as the number one high school recruit in all of football.
Evans showed flashes of his 5-star recruit rating during his freshman season but would ultimately be cast out of the spotlight at TCU amidst injuries and rising 3-star recruit turned 3rd-round NFL running back Kendre Miller.
Being supplanted on the depth chart forced Evans to transfer to Ole Miss, where he would once again be supplanted on the depth chart, once again by a relatively unknown 3-star recruit in Quinshon Judkins.
Miller is now a member of the New Orleans Saints and Judkins is considered one of the top running backs in the nation. Evans on the other hand almost went undrafted, falling to the 6th round at pick 215 overall to the Los Angeles Rams.
Fortunately for Evans, the Rams are an ideal landing spot for the once-coveted young running back.
Cam Akers sits atop the depth chart as the lone viable starter, with Sony Michel and Kyren Williams mixing into the fold.
Akers has dealt with several nagging injuries following a complete Achilles tear in the summer of his second season.
The dominant brute-force rusher that once plowed his way through defenses still lurks deep within Evans. He is one injury away from a voluminous opportunity share that could help him silence the masses and force regret into the heart of every GM that let him slide during the draft.
Full Episode
Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
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By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.