Clay's Corner: DFS Plays for Week 13

Welcome to the Clay’s DFS Plays for Week 13! Week 12 had all the running back value you could ask for. Let’s see if Week 13 has the same incredible values again. Let the #printfest begin! 

Week 13 Draftkings

Games to target:

1. JAX @ DET – 51.5 O/U 

Implied totals: JAX 26.5; DET 25

2. KC @ CIN – 52.5 O/U

Implied totals: KC 27.5; CIN 25

3. LAC @ LV – 50.5 O/U

Implied totals: LAC 26; LV 24.5

4. MIA @ SF – 46.5

Implied totals: NO 17.25; SF 25.75

Top Cash Plays:

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes ($8,200)

After four consecutive weeks of 30+ PPR points, Mahomes “only” dropped 22 on the LA Rams last week. In two career matchups against the Bengals, Mahomes has thrown for 617 yards and six touchdowns with a 72.97 completion percentage. If you have the salary, jam Mahomes into your cash lineups. 

Tua Tagovailoa ($6,700)

Tua Tagovailoa is in a more competitive matchup this week than he was last week but he gets a $200 price drop because of the vaunted 49ers defense. The 49ers defense may be good and 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan may know Miami HC Mike McDaniel’s system, yet they still have to defend against the likes of WR Tyreek Hill, WR Jaylen Waddle, TE Mike Gesicki, WR Trent Sherfield and RB Jeff Wilson. The Dolphins are:

• 1st in the NFL in yards per attempt at 8.5

• 2nd in passing yards at 3,364

• 2nd in passing plays of 20+ yards

• 6th in passing plays for 40+ yards

This offense is too explosive to bench because of a “bad” matchup. I’m playing Dolphins until they’re stopped . . . which has yet to take place. 

Honorable mentions: Jalen Hurts ($8,000) and Joe Burrow ($6,900)

Running Back

Nick Chubb ($8,000) 

Welcome to Nick Chubb week! The Cleveland star RB gets to face the 2nd best True Matchup for RBs on the ground according to Broto’s True Matchup Rank (Throughout this article I’ll refer to True Matchup or True Matchup Rank, this is a Broto Exclusive Stat that adjusts for how defenses perform against the specific players teams have played, rather than overall points allowed — available on the Fantasy Football by Broto app ion the Apple App Store and Google Play Store). QB DeShaun Watson will likely return rusty, which bodes well for Chubb. Lets just hope Browns HC Kevin Stefanski doesn’t pull the rug from under us with a RB Kareem Hunt game—which is unlikely given recent playing time trends. 

Josh Jacobs ($7,900) (if healthy)

He’s back and more expensive than ever! Jacobs had over 200 yards rushing last week and over 300 yards from scrimmage. Next up, Jacobs draws the LA Chargers, who come in as the 3rd-best True Matchup for RBs. 

Benny Snell (4,700) or Jaylen Warren ($4,900)

Which ever of these backs draws the start for the Steelers this week against the Atlanta Falcons is a huge value. The Falcons rank as the 8th-best True Matchup for RBs—5th in terms of strictly rushing production. Certainly this relies on RB Najee Harris missing this game. If he does, these Steelers backs present huge value. 

Jamaal Williams ($6,000)

Jamaal Williams has out-rushed fellow RB D’Andre Swift every week since Week 1 and has out snapped Swift in all but three games this season. Williams has been a valuable workhorse for the Lions this season, ranking 7th in rushing attempts, 10th in rushing yards and 2nd in red zone opportunities while leading the league in TDs. With an implied team total of 25 points, Williams should hit pay dirt again at least once this week. 

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill ($8,800) & Jaylen Waddle ($7,400) 

Both of these target hogs continue to succeed even in bad matchups—this week should be no different.

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,100)

Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images

Amon-Ra St. Brown is back at it again. After dealing with an injury, the Sun God has bounced back with WR8, WR16, and WR3 performances the last three weeks respectively. He also commanded double-digit targets in two of those three games. ARSB is 7th in receptions and 14th in target share at 24.1 percent on the season. The addition of WR DJ Chark should help open up the middle of the field even more, leading to another top fantasy wide receiver performance. 

Christian Kirk ($6,300) 

Trevor Lawrence’s favorite target, Christian Kirk gets the Detroit Lions this week. The Lions rank as the 11th True Matchup Rank for WRs and, with Jacksonville’s running game questionable due to injuries, you can expect Kirk to deliver a big performance. 

Tight End 

George Kittle ($5,000)

I haven’t mentioned George Kittle much this year and now is the time to rectify that. Kittle’s peripherals look phenomenal:

• 6th in True Target Value (Broto exclusive stat)

• 5th in receiving touchdowns by tight ends

• 5th in points per opportunity excluding touchdowns (Broto exclusive stat)

• 9th in red zone opportunities

• 10th in target share (14.8%)

• 3rd in big plays

Oh, did I also mention Kittle gets to play the 4th-best True Matchup for TEs in the Miami Dolphins? Something’s brewing in San Francisco and it could be a Kittle breakout game. 

Travis Kelce ($7,900)

In his last two games against Cincinnati, Travis Kelce has only mustered 10 receptions for 120 yards and one touchdown but Kelce is an anomaly at his position and the biggest positional advantage in the league. Kelce ranks 1st in PPR points, targets, receptions, True Target Value, and red zone opportunities. In a game that’s expected to be competitive, Kelce makes a great cash and GPP play this week.  

D/ST 

Washington Commanders ($3,300)

To be frank, I hate this slate for defenses. The Commanders defense has played better as of late and are ranked 4th in pressure percentage at 25.2 percent. Give the Commanders a shot against QB Daniel Jones. 

Favorite stacks:

1. Patrick Mahomes + Travis Kelce with Ja’Marr Chase/Tee Higgins/Hayden Hurst bring back.  

2. Tua Tagovailoa + Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle with George Kittle/Deebo Samuel/Brandon Aiyuk bring back. 

3. Joe Burrow + Ja’Marr Chase + Tee Higgins with Travis Kelce/Juju Smith-Schuster/Skyy Moore bring back. 

4. Geno Smith + DK Metcalf + Tyler Lockett. 

5. Jalen Hurts + AJ Brown or Devonta Smith. 

GPP Plays:

QB Joe Burrow ($6,700)

I missed on Joe Burrow last week but I’m going back to him in GPPs this week. In a game with a 51.5 over/under, Burrow will have to keep pace with Mahomes and company. In his last game against Kansas City, Burrow threw for 446 yards and four touchdowns. The former LSU Tiger has gone somewhat under the radar this season yet his peripheral numbers look good:

• 2nd in True Throw Value (Broto exclusive stat)

• 8th in deep completion percentage at 46.9 percent

• 9th in yards per attempt at 7.7

• 8th in big plays

• 4th in rushing touchdowns.

It also helps Burrow that WR Ja’Marr Chase is expected back this week. Make sure to have some Burrow exposure this week. 

 RB- Nick Chubb ($8,000), Josh Jacobs ($7,900)

See “Cash” section

WR Ja’Marr Chase ($7,900)

Ja’Marr Chase is again questionable to play this week. His last game against the Chiefs, however, was anything but questionable. Chase went off for 266 yards on 11 receptions and three touchdowns and who’s to say he can’t have another huge game like that? Certainly not me. 

WR Deebo Samuel ($6,600) or Brandon Aiyuk ($6,100)

If the Miami Dolphins push the pace, the 49ers will have to respond, making Samuel and Aiyuk the beneficiaries. Samuel has been down lately due to injury and Aiyuk has been solid with performances of: WR11, WR33, WR15 and WR37 the past four weeks. Both of these wide receivers are slate breakers and should be mixed in to your GPP linueps. 

TE TJ Hockenson ($5,200) 

The Jets defense has improved significantly since the beginning of the year. TJ Hockenson, however, has transformed into a stud since joining the Vikings. Since being traded, Hockenson has finished outside the top-10 at tight end once and finished top-5 twice. In Weeks 9 through 11, TJ Hockenson had 9 or more targets. In Week 12 where he fell short of 9 targets, he hit pay dirt. Hockenson is an integral part of the Vikings offense and could be integral to winning GPPs this week. 

Lone Ranger (sub $5,000 player that can score over 10 fantasy points)

WR Zay Jones ($4,900) 

Zay Jones erupted for 145 yards on 11 receptions last week against the Ravens. In a potential back-and-forth game with the Detroit Lions, I expect Jones to be heavily involved again. Give me Zay Jones to crush the 10-point threshold this week. 

Have a great week 13 of DFS! Go win big!

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By Clayton Jones (@FFPulse88)