SLEEPERS
QB: Jared Goff (DET)
The Lions play host to the Jaguars this week in a cross-conference matchup between two red-hot offenses with the encouraging benefit of housing two sub-par defenses on either side of the football.
First, let’s break down the matchup between these unfamiliar foes. The Jaguars' offense has been up and down this season but has turned up the heat over the past few weeks. They average 371.7 scrimmage yards (10th) and 22.2 offensive points (15th) per contest.
The Lions' defense has been atrocious in 2022, giving up a league-worst 426.4 scrimmage yards and 28.2 points per game to their opponents. Conversely, The Lions' offense has exceeded all expectations, averaging 373.8 Scrimmage yards (8th) and 25.0 points (8th) per game.
Lastly, the Jaguars' defense allows 372.6 scrimmage yards (24th) and 21.1 points (15th) to rival offenses. This overlooked matchup has a classic recipe for shootout potential, making Jared Goff an enticing high-upside sleeper.
The Lions' pace of play has created fantasy-friendly game scripts all season. Their high-octane offense and elite offensive line have allowed Goff to sit back and sling the rock at an incredible rate, averaging 243.1 passing yards on 33.1 pass attempts per game.
The veteran signal-caller ranks 13th in True Throw Value for all quarterbacks with more than 200 pass attempts and will now bring that efficiency into a matchup against a defense that allows 248.1 passing yards (25th) per game.
The Jaguars give up 20.6 PPG to the quarterback position, ranked 9th with a Points Over Average of 16.2%. They concede a whopping 16.6 PPG via passing production alone, setting the table for Goff to feast in a matchup catered to his skill set.
Matt Ward
RB: Dameon Pierce (HOU)
Dameon Pierce may be on the verge of a slight resurgence in Week 12, lifting himself from the depths of relegation and back into fantasy relevance. The Texans rookie running back started the season out with a bang, recording three consecutive weeks of RB1 production from Week 3 through Week 5.
Pierce has since hit an elongated drought following the Texans' Week 6 bye, reducing a steady outpour of high-end production into a dribble of empty efficiency. The bruising plodder has posted zero weeks as an RB1 over his last seven games, with his highest finish coming as the RB13 in Week 9 against the Eagles, bookended by an RB49 finish in Week 12 against the Dolphins.
Week 7: 15.7 FPTS (RB18)
Week 8: 14.1 FPTS (RB20)
Week 9: 13.9 FPTS(RB13)
Week 10: 12.2 FPTS (RB18)
Week 11: 3.7 FPTS (RB45)
Week 12: 4.6 FPTS (RB49)
Pierce encouragingly remains the focal point of the Texans' offense despite several weeks of down production. He is maintaining a 64.2% snap share (RB14) and an absurd 73.5% rushing share (RB8). A heightened opportunity share for Pierce in this matchup could lead to the same week-winning production he posted earlier this season.
The Texans line up against the Browns in Week 13 in what is essentially a revenge matchup for every single player on the field as Deshaun Watson makes his return to NFL action. Emotions and tensions will be running high, as will Pierce’s rushing totals against a defense that allows 131.5 rushing yards (23rd), and 61.1% over the expected average of rushing production to opposing running backs.
The Browns allow an absurd 18.3 PPG to rushing production alone, ranked 1st in true matchup rank. They are also 5th overall in true matchup rank to running backs with rushing and receiving considered, allowing 24.8 combined points to the position on average. Pierce may not have much relevance for the remainder of the 2022 season but he is an underdog candidate to finish in the top 12 options at running back this week.
Matt Ward
WR: Darius Slayton (NYG)
Creator: Alexander Jonesi
Copyright: Alexander Jonesi 2019
Darius Slayton was likely not a name a lot of fantasy managers expected to see being relevant come Week 13 of 2022 but this year has proven anything is possible. With Sterling Shepard and Wan’Dale Robinson shut down for the year due to injuries, Kadarius Toney traded to the Chiefs, and Kenny Golladay being a waste of both roster space and money, Slayton has found himself as the clear-cut WR1 for the New York Giants. Since playing over 50% of snaps for the first time in Week 4, Slayton has recorded 50 or more yards in five straight games and six of eight weeks overall. During this span he has come in as a WR2 four times and a WR3 once. While his ceiling seems to be capped with zero games of 100 yards or more and zero WR1 finishes, Slayton is providing a solid floor that fantasy managers can take advantage of heading into Week 13.
In Week 13, the Giants square off versus the Washington Commanders, a team that is a fantasy goldmine for opposing wide receivers. They are currently allowing 30 PPG, good for 21.7% points over average to the wide receiver position. The best part about Slayton is that he is still sitting on waivers in 39% of Yahoo leagues and 64% of ESPN leagues. If he is available in any league, he should be picked up immediately. Slayton is a WR3 with massive WR2 upside heading into Week 13.
Nick Beaulieu
TE: Tyler Higbee (LAR)
At the time of writing, Sean McVay hasn’t committed to which QB would start this week against the Seahawks. Matthew Stafford is expected to miss the game which leaves John Wolford and Bryce Perkins as the starting candidates. Higbee and the rest of the pass catchers would greatly benefit from Wolford starting, at least from a fantasy perspective. Wolford has attempted at least 36 passes in his two career starts. He also helped Higbee finish as the half-PPR TE6 in Week 10. Higbee wasn’t targeted last week in the loss to the Chiefs, though, with Perkins at the helm—Perkins started his first game and completed 13 of 23 attempts for 100 yards and a TD. Call it jitters but the types of numbers Perkins is producing just don’t result in fantasy success for the players around him. Wolford is not a great answer either but he’s at least throwing more and making players fantasy relevant, which is all that we care about.
Higbee has been the de facto WR2 for the Rams this season. His 73 targets are 2nd on the team. The only knock you can have on him is that he hasn’t caught a TD yet. His 7 red zone targets are tied for 13th at TE and he is one of only 2 players in the league with 7+ red zone targets and no receiving TDs. He’s not due for one but the trend could buck soon. Most importantly, Higbee sees monster target numbers pretty often and takes advantage. He has been targeted at least 9 times in 4 games which is tied for 2nd most at the position. He has at least 45 receiving yards in 6 games, tied for 3rd at the position. For a streamable TE, he has a rare mix of safety and upside. He’s not going to be the guy to catch 3 TDs and explode for 115 yards but he will be the guy who finishes as a TE1 nearly every week and always contends for a top-5 weekly finish at the position. He now gets the best TE matchup per true matchup rank. A close, high scoring game with Wolford at QB is the dream that I’m betting on.
Themi Michalakis
BUSTS
QB: Deshaun Watson (CLE)
Managers that have the confidence to plug and play Deshaun Watson as a top-12 ranked quarterback this week are much bolder than I. Watson has not played a single snap of professional football for nearly two years. Any assumptions that the Browns' new franchise quarterback will immediately return to his All-Pro form are based on a falsified theory that what has happened in the past will continue to happen in the present. Oh, how quick we are to forget the swift decline of Russell Wilson’s production this season.
An underlying narrative of Watson’s not-so-coincidental return against the Texans is the disastrous effect a hostile crowd can have on a quarterback’s confidence and ability to adjust on the fly. Watson will be entering a sold-out stadium of 72,220 fans that want to see him vindicated for his past transgressions on the football field rather than in a court of law.
Narrative-based analysis aside, the Texans present an incredibly difficult matchup for Watson from a fantasy football perspective. They are ranked dead last in Points Over Average as the NFL’s best team at stopping the production of opposing quarterbacks when adjusting for matchup averages. They allow just 12.6 PPG with a negative Points Over Average differential of -32.7%. The Texans rank 31st in both rushing and passing production allowed to opposing quarterbacks, conceding just 11.4 PPG (-23.7% POA) through the air and 1.2 PPG (-99.1% POA) on the ground.
I expect the Browns to draw up a simplified gameplan for Watson’s first game back, one that utilizes Nick Chubb as a three-down workhorse against a susceptible run defense to mitigate any media frenzy that would arise should Watson fail to lead his team to victory.
Matt Ward
RB: Alvin Kamara (NO)
Alvin Kamara has deservedly lost his label as a must-start fantasy asset and anyone that tells you otherwise is residing in a far-distant past of RB1 production that no longer exists. The Saints running back has not finished above RB18 in PPR formats since his 42.8-point RB1 overall outburst against the Raiders in Week 8. His span of production in that stretch is utterly dreadful to behold.
Week 9: 9.2 FPTS (RB23)
Week 10: 7.5 FPTS (RB32)
Week 11: 12.9 FPTS (RB18)
Week 12: 7.0 FPTS (RB42)
Managers desperately waiting for a bounce-back performance will note Kamara’s Week 12 matchup against the 49ers as the toughest matchup for running backs in the NFL—a sign that perhaps positive regression is on the horizon once the veteran running back faces easier matchups. Those helpless managers would be remiss to discover that two of the games from Weeks 9 through 12 were against the Rams and Steelers who combine to allow 10.6% over the expected average of points to the running back position. Kamara’s upcoming matchup should not install confidence in his fantasy managers.
The Saints face off against the Buccaneers in a rematch of their NFC South clash earlier this season that saw Tom Brady beat the Saints for the first time in a Buccaneers uniform. The Buccaneers' defense allows a cumulative 16.3 PPG to opposing backfields with a negative Points Over Average differential of -18.9%, ranked 27th. Kamara’s opponents are equally proficient at stifling both rushing and receiving production of rival running backs, conceding a mere 4.8 REC PPG (-10.8% POA) and 11.5 RSH PPG (-16.0% POA) to the position.
Betting lines are projecting a low scoring total between these two division rivals with the projected over/under set at 40.5 points with the visiting Saints as 3.5 point underdogs. Kamara has the entire deck stacked against him in this matchup.
The dual-threat running back has severely regressed in recent production and faces a near-impossible defensive matchup with a negative game script in a low-scoring affair. If managers are forced to start Kamara in their lineups this week they should prepare themselves for disappointment once again.
Matt Ward
WR: Mike Evans (TB)
This bust is injury related but not in the way one might think. It is not related to the health of Mike Evans himself, fellow receivers, or even his quarterback Tom Brady for that matter. It is, however, related to injuries on his offensive line and the opposing defense. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense has not met the lofty expectations set for them after finishing the 2021-2022 season 5th in total yardage and 3rd in total points. A significant reason for this lack of production is Tom Brady not having enough pocket cushion compared to the year prior. The season kicked off with the Bucs’ star guard Ali Marpet surprisingly retiring, quickly followed by fellow Pro Bowl center Ryan Jensen being put on season-ending IR before the season could even begin. Fast forward to Week 12 where the Buccaneers lost their All-Pro tackle Tristan Wirfs for multiple weeks due to an ankle injury. When Mike Evans’ game is predicated on intermediate and deep routes, the Bucs offensive line being continually depleted is more significant for his production than one might think.
The biggest storyline for Evans heading into Week 13, however, is the looming return of star cornerback Marshon Lattimore. Lattimore and the Saints have had Evans’ number for years now, holding him to an average of 3.2 receptions for 49.4 yards per game across 16 career games. He has yet to surpass 4 receptions or hit the 100-yard mark against the Saints since September 9th, 2018 (7 catches for 147 yards and 1 TD). His average fantasy points per game against the Saints since that game is 6.9 PPG (nice) and his highest points total since that game is 11.8 Half-PPR points. It is evident that the matchup is already scary for Evans given his history against the Saints but if Lattimore plays, which he is on track to do, Evans could be in for another grim performance. While it is difficult to bench Evans in deep leagues without incredible wide receiver depth, expectations should be tempered at the bare minimum.
Nick Beaulieu
TE - Foster Moreau (LVR)
Darren Waller hasn’t played since Week 5 and was placed on injured reserve at the start of Week 10. Foster Moreau has been consistently boring in place of him, which isn’t what you want at a position where nearly all players fail to produce. Despite never eclipsing 45 receiving yards in a game, Moreau has been Yahoo’s most added TE this week and is on 49% of rosters. Last week’s 3/31/1 performance against the best TE matchup in football only made him the TE9 in half-PPR. His only other TE1 performance was against the Colts - the 8th best TE matchup - in Week 10. To say that Moreau has been disappointing would be an understatement. In an already barren TE landscape, he was in a position to actually provide value despite starting the season as a backup. When Waller missed time in 2021, Moreau was getting just as many targets as he is this season but he was catching more of them and turning them into bigger gains despite a similar aDOT. That may have to do with Derek Carr’s -1.6 CPOE which ranks 26th in the league. Perhaps it will get better but this isn’t the matchup to bank on it. The Chargers are the 10th hardest matchup for TEs per True Matchup Rank.
Moreau is unlikely to defy the odds this week which means a worthwhile performance will have to come via a smothering of targets or at least one TD. He has only eclipsed 5 targets twice, and in one of the games he caught 6 of 9 targets for only 31 yards. Despite playing at least 96% of offensive targets since Week 7, Moreau has only been targeted 5 times in the red zone. Waller had 7 before going down and RB Ameer Abdullah currently has 4. Davante Adams and Mack Hollins are hoarding the targets within the 20.
The 50.5 point total is currently one of the highest this week, which paired with a Raiders underdog spread would indicate a good game-script for Moreau's sake but this isn’t anything new for Las Vegas. The Raiders were 4 point underdogs last week in Seattle with the point total closing at 48. In a 40-34 win, Moreau only had a good week because of the TD and the state of the TE position in fantasy. This is the best he did in ideal conditions.
Themi Michalakis
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For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.