The dust from the Divisional Round has settled. Only one game separates the four persistent hopefuls from their bid to represent their respective conferences in the Super Bowl. Let’s look at the remaining NFC contenders and the storied seasons that brought them here.
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
San Francisco 49ers (13-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
BETTING LINES
Over/Under: 46.5
Betting Favorite: Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)
PLAYOFF PREVIEW
Mitchell Leff/Getty Images
The Brock Purdy-led Cinderella 49ers head east into hostile territory as they face off against the conference-leading Eagles in the NFC Championship. Betting lines favor the home team Eagles and their well-rounded offense helmed by Jalen Hurts by a slim 2.5 points with the projected Over/Under scoring total set at 46.5.
Purdy has directed the 49ers to eight consecutive wins, going undefeated as a starter in his rookie season. No one could have predicted the successes this team would have while being captained by the 9th and final quarterback selected in the 2022 NFL Draft and the last player overall. Mr. Irrelevant is now one win away from becoming the first rookie quarterback to start a Super Bowl. He is the third rookie quarterback in NFL history to win two playoff games and just the fifth to ever start in a Conference Championship.
The seventh-round selection has played against a stacked deck to overcome all odds this season but he will now have to overcome history as well. Not only has no rookie quarterback won a Conference Championship but the previous performances of first-year signal-callers in this position are horrendous at best. Josh Dubow of the Associated Press notes that four rookie quarterbacks have started in Conference Championship games in NFL History (King, Roethlisberger, Flacco, Sanchez). Those players combined for a 51.8 passer rating with nine interceptions, four touchdowns, and just 196.8 yards passing per game.
On paper, the 49ers' offense is among the most efficient and effective units in every facet. They average 377.0 yards of total offense (8th) with 226.8 passing yards (13th) and 138.8 rushing yards (8th) while putting up 26.5 points per game (6th). The 49ers house far and away the best defensive unit in the NFL, conceding a league-best 318.6 scrimmage yards (1st), 77.7 rushing yards (1st), and 16.3 points per game (1st). Their one area of weakness has been the secondary where they allow 222.9 passing yards (20th) to opposing offenses.
An offense stacked with immense talent the likes of Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Elijah Mitchell with an offensive line backed by All-Pro Tackle Trent Williams will put any quarterback in a prime position to succeed. Purdy has done just that, throwing for 16 touchdowns with only three interceptions and a league-leading 111.4 passer rating in his time as a starter. The rookie quarterback did, however, appear to finally succumb under the pressure of the Cowboys' defense in the Divisional Championship, failing to throw a touchdown for the first time this season. Playing in hostile territory against an Eagles defense that led the NFL with 70 sacks may prove to be too much for the young signal-caller.
The Eagles looked to be a frightening force against the Giants, coming in fresh off their top-seeded bye week. They were able to control the scoreboard and the clock at ease, setting the tone with a dominating 38-7 victory en route to an NFC Championship appearance. Their starters were able to coast during a blowout win, allowing for a fully healthy and prepared lineup entering this week’s matchup.
The Eagles offense was a buzzsaw of top-end production during the 2022-2023 season. They average a blistering 404.3 scrimmage yards (3rd), 241.5 passing yards (9th), 147.6 rushing yards (5th), and 28.1 points per game (3rd). Similarly, the team’s defense has mirrored the offense with a top-tier unit. The Eagles defense concedes 330.4 scrimmage yards (4th) with a stifling average of 179.8 passing yards (1st) to go alongside 121.6 rushing yards (15th) and 20.2 points per game (7th).
The obvious area of exploitation for the Eagles defense is via the ground and the hands/legs of Christian McCaffrey. Mitigating passing attempts where the Eagles' front seven can wreak havoc on the 49ers' inexperienced rookie quarterback will be at the height of the team’s game plan. Expect the 49ers to lean heavily on McCaffrey and Mitchell on the ground while mixing in extremely quick-hitting and short-yardage pass attempts.
Alternatively, no defense has yet to figure out the dual-threat weaponry that Jalen Hurts brings to his arsenal. The addition of A.J. Brown to go alongside the incomparable DeVonta Smith and bruising tight end Dallas Goedert has helped facilitate the development of Hurts into a true MVP candidate. Mix in the best offensive and defensive lines that the NFL has to offer and you get a recipe for a team that appears to have an unstoppable Super Bowl trajectory.
KEYS TO VICTORY
San Francisco 49ers
Lockdown Outside Receivers
RUN CMC
Protect Mr. Irrelevant
Philadelphia Eagles
No Turnovers
Constant Defensive Pressure
Expose The 49ers' Secondary
INJURY REPORTS
San Francisco 49ers Injury Report
Philadelphia Eagles Injury Report
GAME PREDICTION
Moneyline: Eagles
Scoring Prediction: Eagles 26 – 49ers 19
Over/Under: Under 46.5
Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
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By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.