Welcome back Broto bettors! Our season is almost to a close. We have two of the best games of the year slated up this weekend and I am excited to place some bets. Quick recap from last week: We split our main lines last week. The Chiefs and Jaguars just fell short of the over and the Giants got walloped (I am doing alright, thank you for asking). The Bengals took care of business and comfortably won in Buffalo, making the +5.5 look like a piece of cake. The 49ers also covered their -3.5 against Dallas, winning by a margin of 7 points. If you took each one of my recommended TD scorers for 1 unit, you would have ended positive 3.5 units or so. Great wins! Let’s dive into this star studded weekend.
Game Lines and Wagers
San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) (o/u 46.5)
Two of the best defenses in the league will square off in what should be a really fun NFC Championship matchup. San Francisco’s main weakness on defense is in defending wide receivers. The 49ers grade out as the 7th best matchup for opposing wide receivers according to True Matchup Rank. With two stars in AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith on the outside, Philly should be able to move the ball through the air. With an incredible front seven leading the charge, San Francisco will be able to put pressure on Jalen Hurts to make plays outside of the pocket and throw the ball quickly. Quick routes for DeVonta Smith will lead to short but consistent gains, and I expect big-bodied AJ Brown to make contested catches.
The Eagles, on the other hand, are weakest at the linebacker position—a liability that Kyle Shanahan has likely been waiting to exploit all season. This will be Brock Purdy’s toughest task yet but I believe he is up to the task. Kittle, McCaffrey, Aiyuk, and Samuel are four of the game's most formidable yards-after-catch producers, meaning short gains and a low average depth of target can still lead to efficient production. I expect to see a lot of quick throws over the middle for Purdy. Putting the ball into the hands of his playmakers will be the key to this game. Let’s see if the rookie can pull it off.
Schiz’s Picks:
49ers ML (+125)
AJ Brown Anytime TD (+155)
Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD (-165)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) (o/u 48)
Sam Greene-USA TODAY Sports
The rematch we have all been waiting for! This game is shaping up to be the game of the year and I am so excited to witness it. It is no secret that both of these teams have very prominent offenses. The Chiefs are going to have to find success in this game relying on Patrick Mahomes to be a star. There is a lot of speculation about his injury status which is the most challenging factor to evaluate as a bettor. The line movement on this game has magnified the difficulty in projecting the injury risk: the line opened at -3 in favor of the Chiefs, it moved all the way to +3 for the Chiefs, and has risen back to -1.5 on the Chiefs side once again. True Matchup Rank designates the Bengals secondary as their greatest and most exploitable weakness. Without a true star receiver on the roster, the Chiefs will need their plethora of wide receivers to show up and exploit the Cincinnati secondary.
The Bengals offense will have a little more leniency against a KC defense with more liabilities, although they have a huge liability of their own on the offensive line. Cincy’s offensive line has struggled all year but Joe Burrow has played behind a terrible O-line and thrived under the pressure of the biggest moments for the entirety of his football career.
With average True Matchup scores against the WR and RB, the Chiefs are the second best matchup for opposing QBs and the 9th best matchup for the TE. Burrow should have no problem finding his weapons and executing the offense in this matchup despite the concerns with his front 5.
There were 65 and 51 total points scored in the last two matchups between these teams. This should be a fun, new school style shootout of a game. I will buy the over, given the injury insurance on the line for Mahomes, and avoid picking a winner.
Schiz’s Picks:
Total Points o48 (-110)
Ja’Marr Chase Anytime TD (-105)
Hayden Hurst Anytime TD (+320)
Patrick Mahomes Alternate Passing TDs o2.5 (+160)
As always, bet responsibly and enjoy these games! Have some fun and let’s line those pockets for Super Bowl weekend!
By Mike “Schiz” Schissel (@michaelschissel)
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.