The dust from the Divisional Round has settled. Only one game separates the four persisting hopefuls from their bid to represent their respective conferences in the Super Bowl. Let’s look at the remaining AFC contenders and the storied seasons that brought them here.
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Cincinnati Bengals (12-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (14-3)
BETTING LINES
Over Under: 47.5
Betting Favorite: Cincinnati Bengals (-1.0)
PLAYOFF PREVIEW
Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The Bengals hit the road for the second consecutive AFC Championship matchup against the Chiefs at the vaunted grounds of Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs offense will be handicapped as megastar quarterback Patrick Mahomes suffers through a high-ankle sprain that would have kept any mortal man on the sidelines. Betting lines favor the visiting Bengals by a menial 1.0 points, dropping from 2.5 points at open.
The Bengals have won ten consecutive games, representing the AFC North with their second division title in as many years. Their road to the Lombardi trophy seems eerily similar to their previous season as they will have to best the Chiefs for the fourth time in two years to become AFC Champions.
Looking back at a rocky playoff run, the Bengals toiled to score against the Ravens in the Wildcard Game, relying on a 98-yard fumble recovery by defensive end Sam Hubbard for the winning touchdown. The Bengals turned things around in the Divisional Championship, however, dominating the trenches in a 27-10 victory over the Bills.
The Bengals offense is among the most effective and versatile passing units in the NFL. They average 378.0 scrimmage yards (8th) per game with 265.0 passing yards (5th) but just 95.5 rushing yards (29th). Joe Burrow and company are capable of putting up points in bunches against any defense, averaging 26.1 points per game (7th) on average. They bolster one of the best defenses in the NFL, conceding a mere 20.1 points per game (5th) to opposing offenses.
The Bengals' defense has shown vast improvements in their pass-rush and coverage schemes, but still allow a concerning 229.1 passing yards per game (23rd). They have, however, been stronger against the run, as they give up just 106.6 rushing yards (7th) on average. Luckily for the Bengals' defense, the Chiefs are rolling out Patrick Mahomes on a severely compromised ankle and do not have a high-powered rushing attack to fall back on
Burrow is 3-0 against Mahomes in his career, including playoffs, and is looking to make a clean sweep of his conference rival this weekend. The last time the foes met, Burrow walked away with a 27-24 win as the Bengals hosted the visiting Chiefs in Week 13. Last season, in this exact spot, the Bengals overcame a 21-3 deficit en route to a 27-24 overtime victory and their first Super Bowl appearance in the Burrow-Chase era.
The Chiefs are being slighted as home team underdogs amidst justifiable concerns surrounding Mahomes' health. It is worth noting that the former MVP was a full participant in this week's practice. If the Divisional Championship game was any indication, a one-legged Mahomes is still more talented than 99.9% of active NFL quarterbacks. Nevertheless, the offensive line will need to keep their superstar quarterback upright for all four quarters with plenty of time to throw in the pocket if they hope to keep their Super Bowl dreams alive.
The Chiefs' offense is a well-oiled passing machine with minimal need for creating consistent rushing production. They are averaging a league-leading 424.7 scrimmage yards (1st) with 297.8 passing yards (1st) and a middling 115.9 rushing yards (20th) per game. The Chiefs enter the matchup as the number one scoring offense in the NFL, putting up 29.2 offensive points per game (1st). Conversely, the team’s defense ranks amongst the middle of the league in nearly every category, conceding 351.0 scrimmage yards (17th), 220.9 passing yards (18th), 107.2 rushing yards (8th), and 21.7 points per game (16th) to their opponents.
Mahomes is coming off yet another record-breaking year as he surpassed Drew Brees for most Total Yards in a single season with 5,562. The most impressive part of this feat is that the Chiefs quarterback did so with no wide receiver on his team recording 100 receptions or 1000 receiving yards. Travis Kelce was the only pass-catcher on the roster to cross those thresholds. That connection may be severed this weekend in the face of constant defensive pressure and double-team coverage. The offense will surely have to work their secondary options into the fold as the Bengals' defense keys in on the All-Pro tight end.
KEYS TO VICTORY
Cincinnati Bengals
Quiet The Crowd: Score Early, Score Often
Pressure Mahomes, Make Him Use His Leg(s)
Double-Team Travis Kelce
Kansas City Chiefs
Protect Your One-Legged Quarterback
Mistake-Free Defense, Allow No Big Plays
Short-Yardage Pass Attack
INJURY REPORTS
Cincinnati Bengals Injury Report
Kansas City Chiefs Injury Report
GAME PREDICTION
Moneyline: Bengals
Scoring Prediction: Bengals 27 - Chiefs 23
Over/Under: Over 47.5
Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
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By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.