Welcome back Broto bettors! After a perfect Week 18, we just about broke even during the Wild Card round depending on unit management. Not our favorite thing to hear, but wins are wins and small losses are manageable.
This week is going to be a big week, I can feel it!
Game Lines and Wagers
Jaguars @ Chiefs (-8.5) o/u 52.5
Kansas City is the class of the NFL. It is no surprise to see them in this game with this large of a spread. The Jaguars played an incredible half of football last week but we must not forget their their equally awful first half. It is tough to see exactly how this game will play out, but I do have one lean. Jacksnonville has eclipsed 30 points in 4 of their last 6, with a Vegas implied total of only 22 points. KC is a team that can obviously score a lot of points and this feels like it has shootout potential. Overs went 5-1 last weekend and I think we will add a 6th playoff over in the first game of the slate.
Schiz’s Pick: o52.5 (-115)
Giants @ Eagles (-7.5) o/u 48.5
All Hail The New York Giants! What a win last week over Minnesota. Daniel Jones became the first quarterback to throw for 300+ passing yards, 2+ passing touchdowns, and rush for 70+ yards in a playoff game. He looked poised, experienced, and he made all of the right decisions. There’s an old saying - “It is really hard to beat a team three times.”
The Giants are fully healthy and peaking at the right time. With a week off, Philadelphia will be as tough a challenge as can be for our G-Men. I can sense you know what is coming next…7.5 is too many points!
Schiz’s Pick: NYG +7.5 (-110)
Bonus: Daniel Jones rushed for a touchdown in the Week 12 matchup between these two teams. Davis Webb also rushed for a touchdown in the Week 18 matchup. DJ is playing really well and these Giants are going to put up a helluva fight!
Schiz’s Sprinkle: Daniel Jones Anytime TD (+230), Anytime TD/ML Parlay (+700)
Bengals @ Bills (-5.5) o/u 49.5
Dylan Buell/Getty Images
This long-awaited matchup is going to be a treat. Both of these teams underperformed last week against inferior opponents but managed to pull off victories. The big story line here is the chip on the shoulders of Cincinnati, who feel as though they were robbed of the opportunity to play for a higher seed or in a neutral site game after the Week 17 game cancellation. The Bengals have a legitimate argument to win this game outright, so I like it to come down to the final seconds of play. 5.5 is too many points!
Schiz’s Pick: Bengals +5.5 (-110
Cowboys @ 49ers (-3.5) o/u 46.5
This is perhaps the toughest matchup of the slate. The 49ers have been absolutely dominant both in the wins column and ATS since Brock Purdy took over this team. Whether or not that is because of or in spite of him is irrelevant. San Fran has one of the best systems in the modern era of football on both sides of the ball, so it makes sense Purdy has been able to manage. Dallas is a formidable foe as well, sporting a very talented offense and an incredible front 7 on defense. The one place Dallas is most exploitable is in the secondary, so it will be very interesting to see how Kyle Shanahan navigates the high pressure from a Micah Parsons led pass rush to execute in the passing game. The 49ers defense is extremely tough on the run game and has an argument for best overall unit in the league, so it will be the ultimate test of Dak Prescott and the Cowboys to make things happen on Sunday night. As the Cowboys have had their best offensive performances against inferior defensive opponents, I give the edge to Shanahan and the Niners. On one of the biggest stages, I will break my own rule for the sake of picking the provided line. I would highly recommend teasing this to 3 points or lower and pairing with something else rather than betting the hook.
Schiz’s Pick: 49ers -3.5 (-110)
TD Scorers
One or two TD scorers I like from each team. Mix and match, sprinkle, and have some fun!
Jaguars: Evan Engram +230
Chiefs: Jerick McKinnon -125
Giants: Daniel Jones +230, Isaiah Hodgins +220
Eagles: Jalen Hurts -120, Boston Scott +320
Bengals: Ja’Marr Chase +125, Hayden Hurst +320
Bills: Dawson Knox +200
Cowboys: CeeDee Lamb +160
49ers: Brandon Aiyuk +210
That’s all folks! Happy betting. Bet responsibly, have a beer for me, and let’s make some coin!
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By Mike “Schiz” Schissel
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.