Wild Card Weekend was WILD. A 3-1 week is a disappointment by my standards but we’re still hitting on 77.78% of individual legs. This is likely the final week of the Teaser series, unless both championship games are teasable. There are only two options this week so build a 2-team 6-point teaser with these legs.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs (-9) O/U: 51.5
Chiefs -2.5
Jay Biggerstaff - USA Today Sports
The Jaguars came back to secure a win for the ages in the Wild Card round. Whether or not they win this week, fans have to be excited for the future.
This is going to be a tough one to win for Trevor Lawrence and Co., though. The Chargers took advantage of an awful Jaguars pass defense last week and kept Trevor Lawrence at bay with a great pass defense, at least for the first half. The Chargers defense then began to break down and their offense scored just 3 more points. Mike Williams’ absence and a nonexistent run game destroyed the 2nd half offense. Patrick Mahomes and the best offense in the league shouldn’t have that kind of problem. While the Chiefs defense is arguably worse than the Chargers’, they at least have a familiarity with playoff football and have the crutch of a Patrick Mahomes offense on the other side.
The high point total also favors the favorite in this one. There are enough concerns about the Chiefs defense to tease this instead of betting on the regular spread, however, their first ranked passing offense led by Patrick Mahomes gives them a massive edge at home.
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) O/U: 48
Themi’s Teaser: Eagles -1.5
The Giants are the story of the playoffs so far and I would love to see them shock the world and advance to the Super Bowl as big underdogs every step of the way there. This line is just too exploitable for a teaser line, though, and the difference in talent between these two teams is obvious.
The Eagles boast the 3rd best offense and 6th best defense in the league. They are the best rated passing defense but still struggle against the run. Offensively, they are great on the ground and airing it out.
The Giants have a top-10 offense that has also proven to be very good on the ground and through the air, however, their defense is a bottom ten unit and they are dead last against the run. The best rushing team in the league is on the other side in this matchup and they should be able to exploit the Giants’ weaknesses. Jalen Hurts is a dual-threat QB with the resume of an MVP and some of the best receiving options in the league. Toss the Miles Sanders cherry on top and it should be a long day for the G-Men.
The Giants looked impressive as they tore apart the Vikings last week but the defensive difference between the Eagles and the Vikings cannot be understated. The Giants were able to win by a TD against Minnesota and their 27th ranked defense in DVOA, and made the stops when they needed to, but the Vikings put together many effortless scoring drives.
The Giants are a great story and I would love to see them get a shock win but the most likely scenario is that the Eagles take care of business with ease at home following a bye. Expect a big win and a certain cover of 1.5 points.
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By Themi Michalakis
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.