Week 18 was not perfect but a 4-1 day put us at a 77.97% hit rate on individual legs throughout the regular season.
Heading into Wild Card Weekend, although there are less games to choose from, there are a few good spreads to target.
Game of the Week
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) O/U: 42
Themi’s Teaser: 49ers -2.5
This week is filled with divisional matchups but when every team is at full strength, this is by far the most lopsided of them all. Seattle is 10th in DVOA but they are going up against a 49ers team that ranks 2nd overall and boasts the best defense in the league.
The Seahawks have gotten by thanks to a top notch passing game and the 49ers may struggle to shut down WRs DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett all game. It is still impossible for me to see a legitimate path to victory against a defense that has already limited the Seahawks twice this year. The 49ers have the firepower to win in a shootout but they can also coast to a win in a low-scoring affair. This is a SB contender with few weaknesses, even with a 7th round pick at QB. This will also be Deebo Samuel’s 2nd game back since getting hurt in Week 14. An extra weapon can only help an already stacked 49ers team.
The 49ers haven’t lost a game since getting blown out by the Chiefs in October. The Seahawks are a good team that managed to sneak into the playoffs but they are going to need an all-time 49ers meltdown to win. San Francisco should beat a weak defense at home. Tease this by 7 points. The Bengals are the best line to pair it with.
Underdog of the Week
Los Angeles Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) O/U: 47.5
Themi’s Teaser: Jaguars +8.5
The Chargers have been disappointing from a statistical standpoint. You would think an offense led by Justin Herbert could take advantage of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and Gerald Everett. Injuries have made it hard for the full team to play together but a player of Herbert’s talents should be able to make do with what he has.
These teams faced each other all the way back on September 25th, when the Jaguars won 38-10 on the road, only to lose five straight games after. The Jaguars flourished in this second half of the season, though. After ranking 18th in DVOA from weeks 1-8, they ranked 10th overall from week 9 until the end of the season. The Chargers jumped from 17th to 13th in that span as well.
If Justin Herbert can take advantage of a juicy passing matchup, the Chargers could very well dominate this game. Their strong passing defense could prevent Trevor Lawrence from keeping up but their lackluster run defense leaves them susceptible to Travis Etienne having a big game. While I like Jacksonville to win, this could be where Herbert finally shines. There are enough concerns that teasing this spread makes the most sense. The Chargers haven't blown out quality opponents this year. They haven’t even blown out the bad ones. These teams are not too far apart from each other and the advanced analytics favor the Jaguars. With such a close game expected, the Jaguars should be able to win or only lose by 8.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals (-9.5) O/U: 40.5
Themi’s Teaser: Bengals -2.5
Andy Lyons / Getty Images
Deja Vu. I’m tempted to just copy and paste my writeup from last week’s Ravens @ Bengals game.
Lamar Jackson is not expected to play this week and this Ravens squad just can’t topple the Bengals. Cincinnati didn’t even look particularly great last week and they still coasted to a 27-16 victory. The Ravens can’t keep up with the high octane Bengals offense without Lamar Jackson.
Getting to Joe Burrow is an obvious route to consider for the Ravens to make some noise but the Ravens only generate a pressure on 19.2% of opposing dropbacks, 25th in the league. Burrow has been sacked 4 times in his 2 games against the Ravens this year.
Without Lamar Jackson, I cannot trust the Ravens to do much more than run the ball and play good defense. That’s not going to be enough to stop Joe Burrow and a nasty receiving group. Tease this spread by 7 points down to a win by a field goal.
Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) O/U: 45.5
Themi’s Teaser: Buccaneers +8.5
Line movement can say a lot about a bet. This game has been going back and forth between -3 and -2.5 in favor of the Cowboys and it is unlikely to change. It seems like few sharps are willing to trust the Cowboys with an away win by more than a field goal.
The Cowboys are an overall great team that has woefully underperformed in recent weeks. Still 6th in total DVOA and 2nd on defense, Dallas should be doing much better. A near-loss to the Texans showed how vulnerable they were and they lost to the Jaguars and Commanders in away games. Those games don’t initially tell us much. The Jaguars have a great offense but a bad defense while the Commanders have a bad offense but great defense. The Bucs are in the middle, ranking 16th on offense (one spot behind Dallas) and 13th on defense. Tampa has gotten blown out by some of the best teams in the league and Dallas ranks in a similar range to them.
This is the riskiest play of the week but the Buccaneers are at home and are above-average on both sides of the ball. While their defense has been trending downwards, they are still the hotter team heading into this game and are capable of keeping this game within a TD. Dallas is better than their recent performances suggest, so the original spread is not very enticing. The sharps keeping this game within a field goal is the extra piece of the puzzle that makes me think the Buccaneers cover.
The Fantasy Football by Broto app is now live on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store! Download it today for a start/sit tool, player cards, exclusive statistics, usage, rankings, interactive tools, coaching tendencies, and much, much more!
Check out patreon.com/BRotofantasy to access extra episodes, join our community, win prizes, and help keep the app free.
By Themi Michalakis
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.