Week 17 put a lot of things into perspective. Fantasy teams and sports bets aren't the most important things in life. Thankfully, there has been a lot of positive news regarding Damar Hamlin's recovery.
With that in mind, I still wanted to provide my teaser picks this week with the reminder that what happens on the field only mildly affects us. These players are still humans putting their lives on the line for our entertainment. We can still love fantasy sports and betting but we can love them while also respecting the people who make it possible.
We went 2-0 last week with a voided leg on the Bills-Bengals game, bringing our win percentage to 77.78% on individual legs. Let's push for a profitable and happy Week 18.
Game of the Week
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals (-9.5) O/U: 39.5
Themi’s Teaser: Bengals -2.5
Let’s keep this short and simple: DVOA may favor the Ravens by a small margin but this current team is one of the worst in the league. Without Lamar Jackson, they’re playing the same game as the Steelers. Baltimore relies on their defense to keep games close while hoping that they can steal a win in the end. That won’t happen against the Bengals, the 4th best offense by DVOA.
This stale Ravens offense can’t score and their great defense is not enough to compensate. The Bengals host this game with a lot on the line. If they lose this game, they aren’t guaranteed to host a playoff game. This is due to a string of strange decisions made by the league following the cancellation of the Bills-Bengals game. Cincinnati should win this handily but Baltimore’s defense may keep things a little too close for comfort. Tease this line by 7 points for a win by a field goal.
Underdog of the Week
Cleveland Browns (+2.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers O/U: 40.5
Themi’s Teaser: Browns +8.5
We have a great idea of how good or bad teams are in Week 18 but incentive to play the game is tricky. The Browns, like much of the league, are not playing for anything outside of pride. Getting a win to keep the rival Steelers out of the playoffs would surely fire up the fanbase. A loss, however, would allow Cleveland to secure a better NFL draft pick. The Browns, importantly, are deep enough on offense to overcome some starters getting benched later in the game. That includes Jacoby Brissett taking over for Deshaun Watson.
Cleveland ranks 8th on offense while the Steelers are still below-average at 18th. The Steelers are 10th when running the ball, though, which could be the key to beating Cleveland. While the Browns rank 22nd on defense, they're 29th against the run. That's an exploitable matchup but the Steelers still need to overcome their own slow and low-scoring offense.
The Steelers could still grab a win here to keep their playoff hopes alive but winning by a TD is a tall ask.
Divisional Matchup of the Week
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5) O/U: 38.5
Themi’s Teaser: Jaguars -0.5
Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images
The Jaguars will look to complete their divisional comeback in ideal circumstances—Jacksonville is at home, playing some of the best football in the league, and hosting a divisional opponent that can’t generate anything on offense. The Jaguars are looking like a smash this week. That’s why this small line bothers me.
Joshua Dobbs will once again start at QB for the Titans. His box score looks almost impressive for a backup bouncing between teams and asked to start against the Cowboys, but it wasn’t enough to get the Titans more than 13 points. His DVOA of -13.2% is almost identical to Tyler Huntley’s.
This still is a divisional game and the Jaguars passing defense can easily be taken advantage of. The Jaguars themselves will be throwing a lot as the Titans boast a top run defense but a similarly soft pass defense. That leaves the door open for a Titans backdoor on the original spread but I’m confident that the better offense prevails and covers the teased spread.
AFC Powerhouses
Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders O/U: 52.5
Themi’s Teaser: Chiefs -2.5
The Chiefs have been in some close games this season and a divisional match in Vegas may continue that trend. The Raiders were close to stunning the 49ers last week in an impressive overtime loss. Jarrett Stidham took over for Derek Carr—a presumably head scratching benching that now has people reconsidering. Stidham threw for 365 yards, 3 TDs, and 2 INTs in a 3-point OT loss. The Chiefs and their 23rd ranked defense could have their hands full with Davante Adams and Darren Waller. The last time these teams met, the Chiefs won by a single point at home. Why, then, am I willing to pay up for a 7 point teaser?
Kansas City can clinch the #1 seed in the AFC with a win on Saturday, which means there is still a lot to play for. Moving up a seed or two in the playoffs is not a big enough deal to risk your starters most of the time but an extra week of rest is massive. The Chiefs would also guarantee home-field advantage in the AFC Championship game, should they make it. The Raiders are eliminated from playoff contention but they won’t drop on the ground and die. Upsetting the Chiefs in Vegas would be a good way to end an otherwise lost year. The Chiefs have the upper hand, though. While their defense has struggled, they’re still the top offense in the league. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce will continue to dominate against a Raiders defense that ranks 31st in DVOA and ranks dead last against the pass.
Vegas’ offense ranks 16th in DVOA and they’re especially great on the ground. Both teams are better at stopping the run than the pass. This probably won’t be a ground battle, though. The Chiefs are going to hit the Raiders where it hurts but don’t be surprised if Stidham can keep it close.
Tease the Chiefs by 7 points to have them win by a field goal. Pair this with the Bengals or Browns.
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills (-7.5) O/U: 42.5
Themi’s Teaser: Bills -1.5
The Bills are at home, they are one of the best teams in the league, and they are coming off an incredibly emotional game. I don’t think it’s fair to try to quantify emotions but it’s obvious that the team will want to show up at home for their brother and teammate. Even without emotions, the Bills are the much better team. Buffalo is 1st overall in DVOA and top-5 on both offense and defense. The Patriots boast the 3rd-best defense in the NFL but a bottom-10 offense. Mac Jones did well against an awful Dolphins secondary last week but the Bills are significantly better than that.
Buffalo should outright win this contest but this spread comes with a caveat. The Chiefs are playing the Saturday afternoon game while the Bills are playing on Sunday morning. If the Chiefs win that game, they are guaranteed to be the #1 seed in the AFC. The Bills would guarantee the #2 seed with a win but a Bills loss and Bengals win would push them to 3rd. This drop is not major but guaranteeing an extra home game in the divisional round could be worth it. Just keep an eye out for news about the Bills resting starters if the Chiefs win on Saturday. Teaser legs have to be high-probability and you want to lower ambiguity as much as possible.
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By Themi Michalakis
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.