SLEEPERS
WR: Alec Pierce (IND)
Isaiah J. Downing - USA TODAY Sports
Alec Pierce is quietly climbing his way up the Colts' depth chart as their secondary receiving option behind Michael Pittman. Pierce continues to fly under the radar while other managers cling to hope for Parris Campbell. Before the team’s Week 14 bye, Pierce recorded the best outing of his young career. The Colts' rookie receiver led the team with eight targets (21.6%), hauling in four receptions for 86 yards and one touchdown (18.6 PTS).
The Colts (4-8-1) enter Week 15 fresh off their bye as they travel to face the Vikings (10-3) in this cross-conference clash. The hometown Vikings are favored by 4.5 points with a projected over/under scoring total of 47.5 between the two teams. The Colts will likely be forced to play from behind, increasing their passing volume while playing catchup against the superior Vikings' offensive attack.
Pierce pairs a positive game script with a scintillating matchup against a Vikings secondary that has allowed four QB1, four WR1, and four WR2 finishes during their last four games. The Vikings concede a whopping 34.4 PPG to opposing wideouts, ranked third in True Matchup Rank with a 14.9% expected increase in Points Over Average. They allow a league-worst 287.2 passing yards and 24.1 PPG (25th) to rival offenses this season, setting the tables for the Colts receivers to far exceed their lowly ECR and platform projections.
Matt Ward
TE: Tyler Conklin (NYJ)
Tyler Conklin has proven to be a reliable, albeit unexciting, safety valve for Jets quarterbacks all season. He provides the team with a consistent big-bodied target to help move the sticks with a 93.8% catch rate and only five drops this season.
The Jets (7-6) play host to the Lions (6-7) in a mirror match between two wildcard hopefuls vying for the final playoff spot in their respective conferences. The home team is slightly favored by 2.5 points with an assumed over/under scoring total of 44.5. The game script could suggest a run-focused approach for the Jets, considering their elite defensive prowess and ever-improving rushing attack led by Zonovan “Bam” Knight. That said, the defensive matchup for Conklin is too enticing to ignore.
The Lions defense is among the softest matchups for opposing tight ends. They are giving up 263.4 passing yards (30th) and 26.7 PPG (31st) to their opponents. Although the team has improved the run defense as of late, they are still allowing 12.6 PPG to the tight end position with a Points Over Average rating of 47.9%, ranked 3rd.
Conklin has recorded 15 targets over his last two outings but has managed just seven receptions for 37 yards. Positive regression could be on the horizon for the Jets veteran tight end as his respectable 15.8% target share aligns with a porous Lions secondary.
Matt Ward
RB: Cam Akers (LAR)
Cam Akers is certainly not the sexiest name. The Rams have been spiraling downwards all season and Akers has been inefficient when in the lineup and has only been targeted 8 times in 11 games. This isn’t the busts column, though, and Akers enters Week 15 as a back you can start. Akers was the half-PPR RB7 and RB23 these past two weeks but only finished so high because he scored 3 total. Trusting him in the future would mean a massive rushing game or more TDs and both are attainable this week.
The biggest aid for Akers this week is an unbelievable matchup. The Packers allow the 2nd highest rushing EPA and highest rushing success rate in the entire league. Their run defense also ranks dead last in DVOA. Per ESPN Analytics, the Packers are tied for 2nd to last in the league in run-stop win rate. Most importantly, they’re the 9th best RB matchup in True Matchup Rank so their defensive struggles actually turn into fantasy points.
In juicy matchups against the Seahawks and Raiders the past two weeks, Akers saw decent success on the ground but bolstered his performance thanks to rushing TDs. His next best games this season came against the Falcons and Cardinals who are both top-10 matchups for RBs. TDs are pretty random, especially in an offense as bad as this but if anyone gets one it should be him. Akers leads the Rams with 14 red zone rushing attempts. Darrell Henderson is the only other player on the team with more than 4 but he was waived by the team weeks ago. Akers also leads the team with 4 rushes within the 5. The only other active player on the team with any is Malcolm Brown, with 2.
Cam Akers is only being started in a quarter of Yahoo leagues despite being rostered in 64% of them. It is the fantasy playoffs now which means options are running thin. Akers isn’t worth starting over your studs but each week only brings more injuries and Akers gets good volume and an incredible matchup. Game-script could phase him out but that’s the risk you take with a player like this.
Themi Michalakis
QB: Kirk Cousins (MIN)
The always reliable fantasy option, Kirk Cousins, has been quietly chugging along making his way through another season as a consistent QB1 option. He is currently the overall QB11 while having seven weekly QB1 finishes on the year. Across the Vikings last three gamesm he has managed to hit the top 10 QB threshold in two out of three of the games. He torched the Patriots in Week 12 where he finished as the QB9 on the week, then had a down game against the fierce Jets defense but was able to bounce back in a big way against Detroit as he erupted for over 425 passing yards, a pair of touchdowns and a QB5 finish in Week 13.
Sure, he’s had some very low lows in games against top notch defenses like the Cowboys, Eagles and Jets but the list of QBs who have struggled against those teams is very long with a lot prettier names than Kirk Cousins on it. My point is, you can be hesitant with Kirk when he’s facing an elite defense (or in a primetime matchup) but when he’s facing a defense like the Lions, he’s going to be a reliable QB option and most likely needs to be in your fantasy lineup.
Luckily for those in the first round of playoffs with Captain Kirk on their squad, he has a very solid matchup in line for him this week as the Vikings play the Colts, who allow 19 points per game to the position. That Vikings offense should consistently be attacking that Indianapolis defense, just like they have against nearly every other team they’ve faced. To make things even better for Cousins’ outlook, the Colts are currently ranked 8th in True Matchup Rank as they allow 14% Points Over Average to opposing quarterbacks. It’s a prime matchup for Kirk and with the top tier weapons that he has available to him in that offense, he’s going to produce. Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson, Dalvin Cook & Adam Thielen will make sure he produces.
Boyd Armstrong
BUSTS:
WR: D.J. Chark (DET)
D.J. Chark’s career resurgence on the Lions has been a pleasant revelation of production for the offense and his fantasy managers. The hype train is moving with a full head of steam. Next stop: Disappointment.
Managers are foolishly attaching a lot of stock in Chark as a viable starter in the first matchup of their fantasy playoffs. He has tallied over 90 yards and five catches in back-to-back games, most recently finishing as the WR9 overall (21.4), catching six of seven targets for 94 yards and a score. The veteran wideout topped all members of the offense in receiving production, tallying six receptions against a pitiful Vikings secondary. The upcoming matchup will be a stark change in difficulty for Chark as he transitions from the Vikings (34.4 PPG/14.9% POA) to the Jets (25.0 PPG/-7.9% POA).
Chark will likely draw the coverage of the Jets' top cornerback Sauce Gardner while D.J. Reed and Michael Carter (CB) lockdown Amon-Ra St. Brown. Sauce leads the NFL in coverage rating, per PFF. An impressive feat for any defender, let alone one in his rookie season.
Chark will have his hands full while being blanketed by the same cornerback that effortlessly shut down Justin Jefferson and Stefon Diggs (x2). Managers can feel comfortable downgrading Chark in a terrible defensive matchup against the league’s brightest young defensive superstar.
Matt Ward
TE: Evan Engram (JAX)
Evan Engram had a career-best performance against the Titans in Week 14, catching 11 of his team-high 15 targets (35.7%) for 162 yards and two touchdowns. People foolishly chasing last week’s points in hope of a repeat showing will be sorely disappointed with the upcoming matchup.
The Jaguars (5-8) face off against the visiting Cowboys (10-3) in a rare cross-conference clash between this NFC East powerhouse and AFC South underdog. Betting lines favor the visiting team by 4.5 points with an implied over/under scoring total of 48.5. The game script indicates a potential increase in passing volume for the Jaguars but that is where the positive narratives end.
The Cowboys are elite at every defensive facet but are prolific at defending opposing tight ends. Engram’s opponents concede a mere 6.9 PPG to the position, ranked 31st overall. The Cowboys' defense ranks 27th in True Matchup Rank to tight ends with a negative POA rating of -19.6% to the position. Outside of his Week 14 eruption, Engram has just one game above double-digit fantasy points over his last four appearances.
The Jaguars' tight end is a boom-or-bust top-12 option but has little to no chance of mimicking even a fraction of last week’s production.
Matt Ward
RB: Jerick McKinnon (KC)
The RB1 overall from last week has understandably been one of the most added RBs in Week 15. McKinnon’s phenomenal performance was beautiful to watch as he took a Patrick Mahomes sky hook for 56 yards and a TD in the 2nd quarter. He followed that up with a 10-yard receiving TD just a few minutes later It is unfortunately hard to see anything close to a repeat of that performance this week.
The Houston Texans are the 5th hardest matchup for RB receiving value per True Matchup Rank. Houston is a rare case where more context is needed, though. They are the hardest matchups for QBs and WRs but only because they are so bad against the run and offensively can’t keep up with teams most weeks. Teams don’t need to throw against them, and that’s why the numbers are skewed so badly. Even when Dak Prescott had to throw 39 times to lead his team to a 27-23 comeback against Houston last week, he only finished as the QB15. Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott combined for 7 receptions, 39 yards, and a TD through the air. With minimal rushing attempts in even the best circumstances, that doesn’t bode well for McKinnon this week.
McKinnon set season-highs in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and TDs in Week 14. He nearly beat all of his career numbers in each of those categories as well. This all occurred against a surprisingly potent Broncos offense that kept the game within a score, although most of McKinnon’s success happened before Denver could even score a point.
There is a scenario where the Chiefs use a player like McKinnon late in the game to close it out assuming they route the Texans like they are expected to. The Chiefs are passing 57.4% of the time when leading and 67.4% of the time when tied, both good for the 3rd highest rates in the league. Big plays, whether through the ground or air, would be what saves McKinnon’s week but the Chiefs will likely just not need to rely on him this week. He can still be played as an RB3/4 with home-run potential but his rostership percentage is a massive overreaction to an outlier game.
Themi Michalakis
QB: Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)
The Tua Tagovailoa journey has been long and winding this season, with many ups and downs throughout. He’s had multiple bottom 20 weekly finishes but then has had stretches where he finishes in the top five for fantasy quarterbacks.
Tua hasn’t been able to sniff a top five weekly finish in over a month, and since coming out of the bye in week 11, he’s finished as the QB17 or worse in all three of his games. He hasn’t even been able to hit low end QB1 status as of late, which could be a lineup killer for those who have been starting him with hopes of a productive performance for their teams.
Now he gets to face his division rivals, the Buffalo Bills, who have been fantastic at shutting down quarterbacks this season. They currently sit as the 5th toughest matchup, per True Matchup Rank, as they are allowing -16% Points Over Average to opposing quarterbacks, which equals a measly 14 points per game. That does not bode well for Tua or his managers relying on him for a big game in their first round of playoffs. The last time he played the Bills in week 3 was not an enjoyable experience for those who started him as he had his worst game of the season. He failed to surpass even 200+ passing yards which led to an 11 point fantasy performance, which landed him QB25 on the week. That’s the kind of game that can easily lose you a matchup, especially now that we’re in the playoffs. With the way Tua’s fantasy production has been trending, plus the horrible matchup ahead of him, it’s best to pivot elsewhere for the time being and find a streaming option for your team’s first round matchup.
Boyd Armstrong
The Fantasy Football by Broto app is now live on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store! Download it today for a start/sit tool, player cards, exclusive statistics, usage, rankings, interactive tools, coaching tendencies, and much, much more!
Check out patreon.com/BRotofantasy to access extra episodes, join our community, win prizes, and help keep the app free.
By Broto Staff
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.